The Derby: Who runs? Who doesn't? Who wins?
BY MARK SCULLY 5:00PM 15 MAY 2016
THE DERBY is less than three weeks away but one significant question remains: who exactly is going to line up in the world's most prestigious Flat race?
A look at the ante-post market only serves to add to the confusion, with the unusual situation of a filly who is seemingly highly unlikely to run holding favouritism.
It is all very messy, so with the major trials (and perhaps the DNA tests) now done and dusted, where exactly do we stand with Epsom looming ever larger on the horizon?
The Likely Lads
US Army Ranger
Best price - 9-2
Aidan O'Brien's record in the Derby means he simply must be respected and it seemed (at least until Sunday afternoon) his leading candidate remains US Army Ranger, despite a less than convincing victory in the Chester Vase.
At a recent press event, O'Brien made a staunch defence of the horse, saying: "Everyone is knocking this horse, but they shouldn't be.
"I was very happy with his win at Chester as most the time we have one horse that everyone latches on to but not this year."
Wings Of Desire
Best price - 9-2
Shorter in some places than US Army Ranger, plenty of racing fans will not have heard of Wings Of Desire until recently but he introduced himself in style with a taking win in last week's Dante.
The York showpiece has established itself as the leading trial for the Derby and Wings Of Desire's trainer, John Gosden, claimed it en route to Epsom glory with Golden Horn 12 months ago.
Like Golden Horn, Wings Of Desire will have to be supplemented for the not inconsiderable sum of £75,000 but Gosden gave the impression that was a formality in his post-race interviews at York.
Moonlight Magic
Best price - 12-1
Moonlight Magic put his hand up with a win in the Group 3 Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial Stakes and jockey Kevin Manning certainly fancies his chances.
Beaten only once in four starts, Moonlight Magic was a high-class juvenile and has the breeding to get the Derby trip, being by Cape Cross, the sire of last year's winner Golden Horn. His dam, Melikah, finished second in the 2000 Irish Oaks.
"The other Derby contenders have been an even bunch this year," Manning said. "We can go there now anyway and I don't fear anything else in the race."
Humphrey Bogart
Best price - 33-1
Another in the seemingly endless list of runners who will need to be supplemented is Humphrey Bogart, whose trainer Richard Hannon has argued trial races should carry a 'win and you're in' prize to boost competition.
He would clearly have to take a big step forward to win at Epsom but, as the cliche goes, there is only one Derby and owners Chelsea Thoroughbreds have signalled their intention to roll the dice.
Under consideration
Galileo Gold
Best price - 5-1 (with a run)
He was in, then out, then maybe back in again. We know the 2,000 Guineas winner will head to the Curragh for the Irish 2,000 Guineas but after that, who knows?
Hugo Palmer appeared to rule out the Derby after a genetic test suggested the son of Paco Boy would not be suited by racing over 1m4f, but owner Sheikh Joaan Al Thani has asked his trainer to keep his colt in the race.
The Gurkha
Best price - 6-1
Listen, the lads have got plenty of thinking to do. The Gurkha did not have to fight very hard to win the Poule d'Essai des Poulains on Sunday and did so in eyecatching fashion.
Trainer Aidan O'Brien did not want to commit to Epsom in the immediate aftermath of the Deauville demolition and says the decision will be left to co-owners, Messrs Tabor, Smith and Magnier.
Like Wings Of Desire, The Gurkha is fairly new on the scene and only broke his maiden at Navan in April.
Port Douglas
Best price - 16-1
There are plenty who will tell you Port Douglas should have won the Chester Vase, but whatever your view his proximity to US Army Ranger that day puts him squarely in contention for the Derby.
Port Douglas is among a host of potential runners for O'Brien and company, with the likes of Shogun and Deauville also in contention for a trip to Epsom. However the trainer opts to shuffle his cards, it is certain O'Brien will be substantially represented on the day.
Midterm
Best price - 20-1
Oh how things have changed for Midterm. As many of his market rivals failed to impress in their trial races, the Sandown Classic Trial winner gradually made his way to the head of the market.
The Sir Michael Stoute-trained colt headed to York looking to confirm his promise but did quite the opposite and could manage only fifth behind Wings Of Desire. Whether Midterm will line up in the Derby on the back of such a disappointing outing remains to be seen.
Viren's Army
Best price - 25-1
Humphrey Bogart may not be Richard Hannon's only runner in the race but like him, Viren's Army would also need to be supplemented after coming out on top in a thrilling Listed Dee Stakes at Chester.
There has to be a question about his ability to get the 1m4f and perhaps a race like the Tercentenary Stakes at Royal Ascot next month would be more appropriate.
Linguistic (best price 33-1) was beaten a short head in the Dee could also be supplemented by Godolphin.
Cloth Of Stars
Best price - 10-1
Perhaps the most impressive trial winner was Godolphin's Andre Fabre-trained Cloth Of Stars, who won the Group 2 Prix Greffulhe at Saint-Cloud from Group 1-winner Robin of Navan.
He recorded an RPR of 113 and would need to be supplemented but Andre Fabre has gone on record as saying 1m4f and a strong pace would play into his hands.
Going elsewhere
Minding
Best price - 3-1 (with a run)
She might be favourite but the chances of Minding actually taking on the boys seem remote and Aidan O'Brien has said nothing to suggest she will run anywhere other than the Oaks 24 hours earlier.
So Mi Dar
Best price - 5-1 (with a run)
It says a lot about the lack of a stand-out colt that another filly is so prominent in the betting for the Derby but like Minding, connections do not seem remotely interested in anything other than the Oaks.
Who is going to win?
The bare form of Wings Of Desire's Dante success might not prove anything out of the ordinary but the fact the son of Pivotal was able to win having only started serious homework in March is impressive.
It was also clear to see how excited John Gosden was in the aftermath of that win and it is hard to recall him being so animated about Golden Horn at the same stage.
Wings Of Desire will have come on significantly for his York outing and will doubtless have learned a lot too. If he can overcome his immaturity and handles the unique challenges Epsom presents, he could take a lot of beating.
