His plan was simply ludicrous.
He poisons Brock somehow with a plant that has similar effects as ricin. He then has the ricin cigarette lifted so Jesse thinks it was Walt so he would go and confront him.
He then hopes he can trick Jesse into believing Gus poisoned Brock to frame him. It's a crazy plan
His plan to kill Gus is equally as crazy. Hector has to hate Gus enough to agree to blowing himself up, tyrus has to be watching the dea building, Gus has to hate Hector enough to walk into a trap after showing almost supernatural levels of paranoia to avoid the car bomb.
Yet it all falls into place. Walt is a good judge of a person
I wouldn't say ludicrous, more calculated with very high risk. Everyone acted essentially as Walt expected. Maybe I'm pulling stuff out of my ass but I think I can address all your concerns.
He then has the ricin cigarette lifted so Jesse thinks it was Walt so he would go and confront him.
I think this was a safe bet. What else would Walt expect Jesse to do in this situation? With only two people knowing about the ricin cigarette of course Jesse's first move would be to confront Walt. The risk was Jesse doing something before Walt could talk his way out of it.
He then hopes he can trick Jesse into believing Gus poisoned Brock to frame him.
This was a risk but not so great. Everything Walt said to convince him of this was reasonable and would make sense to Jesse.
Hector has to hate Gus enough to agree to blowing himself up
Worst that could happen was Hector saying no, but Walt would still have been able to manufacture something with the knowledge he had of the feud.
tyrus has to be watching the dea building
I would say its more likely Gus had people/some way of keeping tabs on Hector, due to what Hector knows and due to the feud. I imagine it was not a case of Tyrus just so happening to be watching the DEA building when Hector just so happened to pay it a visit. I'd say Hector leaving the nursing home was communicated to either Gus or Tyrus and Tyrus followed him.
Gus has to hate Hector enough to walk into a trap after showing almost supernatural levels of paranoia to avoid the car bomb.
By far the most important win condition in Walt's plan. This was the riskiest part of the whole thing. Gus' actions were in contrast to his usual behavior. Walt took a huge gamble in assuming that the feud was to a level that would override his common sense, his cautiousness and even those cray prediction skills. How easy would it have been for Gus to have Tyrus kill Hector and leave Walt's plan in tatters? Extremely easy. However, the gamble paid off and Walt won.
On tonight's episode I was very happy with it. So much quality in this show. I spotted Huell's (however its spelled) actions and as soon as I saw that I knew it was all coming to a head. I knew that Jesse would make the connection and it was the beginning of the end. Can't wait for next week.
