Central Coast Bears, 2013.

[Red&BlackBear]

Where was the poll advertised? I didnt even know about it until the results were published here on LU

Poll was advertised through older issues of RLW and in the WWoS website.

 

[t-ba]

They should go to the CC. Frankly, it's justice.

But it's starting to become very clear that it's not going to happen. I think I've done my fair share of sticking up for the Bears and their right to play out of the CC in the NRL for the past decade, but I think it's over.

The NRL really missed a beat not letting in Wellington and the Bears in with the Titans imo.

 

[Goddo]

TBH, if Cronulla had folded in 2010 and the Bears had been brought in to replace them, that probably would have been the best outcome for the "game" in terms of market spread.

The Shire would have become Dragons/Rabbitohs/Tigers/Bulldogs land, and the game would have got a sustainable club in split markets in the North like the Dragons are in the south. That would have left the NRL the easy position of true expansion in Perth/Brisbane/Wellington. Not a good outcome if you're a Sharks fan though.

But cudos to the Sharks - they dug themselves out of the hole, and now look like they will be with us for good.

Now, we saw how TV demanded its pound of flesh for $1B recently. If they are going to support and pay for expansion, its foolish to think they won't have expectations regarding "market penetration" and so on.

Gosford simply isn't that impotant. But it deserves something. And the Bears brand is recognisable and generally loved by league fans as "the little team that tried". Someone else said it earlier, the Bears are probably the least hated brand in League history. They deserve something too.

If we have a situation where the ARLC is encouraging Sydney based clubs to take games interstate to new markets (ala the AFL with teams in Darwin/Canberra/Tasmania), then the Bears may be viable on the CC. But thats the only way I see it working - TV gets games in new/different markets, with no net gain of games in NSW - the "gain" of expanding in Gosford would be through the Bulldogs, Rabbitohs, Roosters, Sea Eagles playing in Adelaide, Brisbane, Central Queensland, Wellington et cetera.

In the end, it all hinges on what the game and its various stake holders want;
Re-enforce home markets (Brisbane/Gosford)
Reach new markets (Perth/Adelaide/NZ/Central Queensland)
Apease TV (Perth/Brisbane)
Maximise revenue (Perth/Brisbane)
et cetera.

 

[Beowulf]

They should go to the CC. Frankly, it's justice.

But it's starting to become very clear that it's not going to happen. I think I've done my fair share of sticking up for the Bears and their right to play out of the CC in the NRL for the past decade, but I think it's over.

The NRL really missed a beat not letting in Wellington and the Bears in with the Titans imo.

Its not over by a long shot I believe! The ARLC know the stakes are high for the Bears and they need to resolve the situation. It would be unthinkable for them to say 'not now, but maybe try again in a few years time' - I think most neutrals would kick up a stink also. They simply have to find a way.

They created the mess - they must fix it. Everything stems from their choice of a flawed Gold Coast model over the Bears model with demonstrated bottomless financing, all to punish the Bears for being loyal to the ARL, a decision eagerly supported by Manly and Roosters. The Gold Coast will struggle indefinitely due to the demographics of their market.

Hypothetically, I wonder what people would think if they found out the Bears were told 'you're in' just before they made the decision to drop expansion for 6 months before suddenly announcing out of the blue the Titans had 'won' a license........that's all hypothetical, of course.......

 

[Beowulf]

Thing is having competition on the North side of the bridge would actually have a lot of positives for Manly. Our game is built on rivalry and tribalism. Having a hated enemy on your doorstep increases interest for fans of all clubs. Easts fans cheer for whoever's playing Souffs, Sharks fans do the same for the team playing the Dragons. You don't have to manufacture this emotion like the AFL is desperately trying to do in Sydney/SEQ, and the NRL would be doing with the Bombers/Broncos.

Again 100% correct. Can Manly bring themselves to support the CC Bears though? The Roosters were dead keen to kill the Bunnies - ironoically they have been a major beneficiary through the renewed rivalry for the same reasons you mention above. You'd hope impartial, rational businessmen can make the same leap - its not a big one.

 

[RedVee]

Why are Easts against CC Bears?

 

[Perth Red]

I doubt manly can stay as they are and remain viable in the long run.

 

[Beowulf]

Why are Easts against CC Bears?

Disappointing reality, given they are both Foundation Clubs but apparently the Roosters don't feel the CBD is a big enough corporate area for them! They want Nth Sydney corporates, plus they believe long term they can have a supporter base living in lower northern Sydney - its true some families move from the East to north when they have kids, but I don't see many NRL jerseys around the area at all these days, a few Bunnies, Manly and a sprinkling of Roosters is about it. The interest will only decline the longer there is no team.

By way of analogy, Manly, Roosters want to be big fishes in a small pond rather than have another fish join them in a biggger pond. The Bears must prove the larger pond brings more food.

 

[t-ba]

I doubt manly can stay as they are and remain viable in the long run.

We regularly drew over 15,000 when 10k was the norm. Super League, the rise of the swans, the advent of Super Rugby and the lack of any substantial upgrades to Brookvale have gutted the club.

With a better model for engaging the community, and (most importantly) an improved match day experience for fans that aren't diehards, we'll be fine. Manly are still a strong brand, we get good figures on the box, we've got decent corporate backing, we just don't have a decent stadium within miles of our heartland.

 

[BuffaloRules]

I've lived my entire life on the Northern Beaches ( dont support them though), and I think a lot of people from other areas understimate the strong following that they have in what is one of the most affluent areas in the country...

Their stadium is an absolute dump as well... Hopefully local MP Tony Abbott can invest some $$$$ in it when he is PM in 12 months time...

Manly could average 20K on the back of a half decent stadium...

 

[Perth Red]

hmm, I am doubtful, on the back of succesful teams they can't make the NRL avg. What's the population of their realistic catchment area? In their history they have only cracked one decent year of crowds ('99). Maybe they can find a bigger area to market to that stretches beyond their current confines and a stadium would certainly help but the odds of them getting one seem very remote so what's the answer for them?

 

[t-ba]

hmm, I am doubtful, on the back of succesful teams they can't make the NRL avg. What's the population of their realistic catchment area? In their history they have only cracked one decent year of crowds ('99). Maybe they can find a bigger area to market to that stretches beyond their current confines and a stadium would certainly help but the odds of them getting one seem very remote so what's the answer for them?

Umm, before Super League the club hadn't averaged below the premiership average since the 1960's...In the 70's we averaged over 15,000 more often than not, at a time when clubs were lucky to be drawing 10,000 to games. The stadium is it. The Northern Suburbs need a side, and with the Bears chances looking increasingly dire, Manly is it. We can't concede defeat on such an exceptionally wealthy part of the country...

The realistic catchment is probably about 400,000 if you include the lower and middle north shores, an area with which the Northern Beaches is becoming culturally similar to due to people moving in either direction quite frequently.

The standard of facilities, even for a suburban ground, are awful. Many People on the Northern Beaches have always been 'multi-confessional' when it comes to sports and the Swans and the Waratards offer a much better matchday experience which functions as a good bit of theatre a few times a year.

But please continue...

p.s: If you actually bothered to look into it, you'd know 1999 was artificially inflated by the opening of Stadium Australia

 

[BuffaloRules]

The realistic catchment is probably about 400,000 if you include the lower and middle north shores, an area with which the Northern Beaches is becoming culturally similar to due to people moving in either direction quite frequently.

lia

Manly are definately increasing their popularity on the lower and middle North Shores, particular with kids...

I work with several former Bears fans who live in the area, and who's kids are now big Manly fans....

The standard of facilities, even for a suburban ground, are awful.

Agreed - Perth Red, have you ever been to the ground?

 

[RedVee]

Disappointing reality, given they are both Foundation Clubs but apparently the Roosters don't feel the CBD is a big enough corporate area for them! They want Nth Sydney corporates, plus they believe long term they can have a supporter base living in lower northern Sydney - its true some families move from the East to north when they have kids, but I don't see many NRL jerseys around the area at all these days, a few Bunnies, Manly and a sprinkling of Roosters is about it. The interest will only decline the longer there is no team.

By way of analogy, Manly, Roosters want to be big fishes in a small pond rather than have another fish join them in a biggger pond. The Bears must prove the larger pond brings more food.

Easts probably think they are a good fit for Rugby following Northshore types. If CC Bears can come in without reducing the grant to the other teams I think it is poor form foe Easts to protest.

hmm, I am doubtful, on the back of succesful teams they can't make the NRL avg. What's the population of their realistic catchment area? In their history they have only cracked one decent year of crowds ('99). Maybe they can find a bigger area to market to that stretches beyond their current confines and a stadium would certainly help but the odds of them getting one seem very remote so what's the answer for them?

Mate, I really don't think Manly are interested in moving out of their enclave. I think they enjoy the us and them stuff, and it seems to flow across into their following as well. Strong locally, not so much elsewhere. If they relocated they'd need to go to another beach area. The longer there is no Bears the more chance Manly have of increasing their take from the Northshore. I can see why they would object to the Bears return, though distasteful considering Norths gave permission for Manlys inclusion in the first place.

 

[Perth Red]

Manly are definately increasing their popularity on the lower and middle North Shores, particular with kids...

I work with several former Bears fans who live in the area, and who's kids are now big Manly fans....



Agreed - Perth Red, have you ever been to the ground?

No, not interested in going either tbh. I have stood in plenty of antiquated poor grounds in my 30 years of following RL.

So what is the answer? Can you really see Manly getting a new stadium or being able to attract enough funding to get Brookie up to modern stadium capacity and quality? Is playing some games in Gosford an option maybe if Bears are denied and leave the area? Maybe playing games against the well supported teams in that area might be a goer? I am sure after the success of the Warriors game in perth we will see that fixture repeated here again next year but is taking games away from your fanbase the answer? I think Manly are just one of a few clubs that face similair problems in the coming years.

 

[age.s]

It isn't a choice between Manly or the Bears. Manly aren't going anywhere, nor should they. The best option for RL on the north side of Sydney is both clubs with the Bears support moving further north as time goes on. It's a question of whether the ARLC see it as a priority.

 

[Beowulf]

Manly's whole reason for existence in the modern era is to be the bad guy - it works for them, turning Brookie into a fortress of hate...just look at the documented Board dramas to see where the culture of hate emanates from.

i admire what they achieved in terms of on-field success (albeit at the expense of other clubs), but with a heartland of 250K in Manly, Warringah (and throwing in the geriatric Pittwater) and a decaying stadium they've had to be parasitic to survive - don't think thats in teh games best interests. Ideally they would get a brookie upgrade to help their sustainability through facilities for corporates and the Bears gain entry on the Coast.Then all parties win.

Local fans living in their heartland will naturally follow them as any fan should follow their local, but their culture does not translate to the gentrified north shore which is not their heartland and never will be with the siege mentality.

The Bears, Swans and Waratahs are the only cultural sporting 'fits' for the region Killibilli-Wahroonga.

There are some kids who support Manly in the district - but thats because they are succesful at present. There were lots of 6-7-8 year olds in my club who followed the Dragons until this year! They've been dumped and Manly are the flavour of the month at present. next couple of years it will be the Bulldogs, but the RL fanbase on the north shore is tiny at present and cannot grow under anyone but the Bears.

the ARLC have to decide whether they want to remain in this affluent area, or concede defeat to the Swans/Waratahs in northern Sydney and concentrate on other areas of Australia.

On thh C.Coast, without the Bears the local RL comp would never die, but you would see slow decline if the FFA support the mariners existence. Presidents of the local clubs up there have said they can see a drop in numbers to soccer. With a reduced production factory on the Coast, it limits recruitment for existing teams - so its in everyones interest to have a team up there.

 

[BuffaloRules]

There are some kids who support Manly in the district - but thats because they are succesful at present. There were lots of 6-7-8 year olds in my club who followed the Dragons until this year! They've been dumped and Manly are the flavour of the month at present. next couple of years it will be the Bulldogs, but the RL fanbase on the north shore is tiny at present and cannot grow under anyone but the Bears.

I disagree... those 6, 7 and up to 12 year olds have never known the Bears playing in the NRL, and being kids they are going to be growing up supporting somebody, more than probably a team that has a lot of success like Manly...

On thh C.Coast, without the Bears the local RL comp would never die, but you would see slow decline if the FFA support the mariners existence

Have junior numbers been increasing on the Central Coast over the past 12 years? I would suspect so, but if you have the numbers let me know...

The Marineres are not a threat .. they had a grand final qualifier this year and got 7,000 people.. I dont know how the FFA is going to turn that around....

 

[BuffaloRules]

Can you really see Manly getting a new stadium or being able to attract enough funding to get Brookie up to modern stadium capacity and quality?

With local MP and No 1 supporter Tony Abbott as PM, yes I can.

 

[t-ba]

Local fans living in their heartland will naturally follow them as any fan should follow their local, but their culture does not translate to the gentrified north shore which is not their heartland and never will be with the siege mentality.

The Bears, Swans and Waratahs are the only cultural sporting 'fits' for the region Killibilli-Wahroonga.

Hogwash. Before the 1990's, the Bears were, despite their lovely little ground, one of the worst supported sides in the comp. Poor performance aside, they consistently drew crap, even in seasons where they won more than they lost. Now, full props to Mr Hill and North Sydney for the work they did to turn the Bears into a very well attended, very well supported club, but there were times when the NSWRFL thought Asquith to be a better fit for the top flight than the Bears FFS. Areas in the catchment, like Lane Cove (Balmain) and the Hills (Parramatta) were by North Shore standards strong RL areas whose residents had a stronger attachment to another club than the Bears.

There was a pretty tacit admission of this when the Bears tried to cut loose clubs like Willoughby and Brothers when the club moved to the Central Coast.

The days of people being 'Westies' if they lived west of Middle Harbour are long gone. You'd be hard pressed telling the difference between Westfield Chatswood and Warringah Mall.

The whole 'Us' and 'them' thing has been on the wane for a generation and movement between the two regions is completely commonplace. Manly's working class areas are steadily being gobbled up by the same gentrification that is swallowing suburbs like Naremburn up...

Manly can do it. Places like Mosman already have pretty strong support for Manly. But I don't think we needed to get rid of the Bears to do it.