Central Coast Bears NRL Bid.

[BuffaloRules]

Bombers and western corridor

Current?

How did they go last year?

 

[Lockyer4President!]

There are limited spaces for expansion (maybe 4) and the NRL needs to prioritise which areas will best improve the code's national footprint. If 2 spots are taken up by other teams in the next round, then there are only 2 left. If more equally serious bids in expansion markets spring up over the next ten years, what will the ARLC do, strengthen the heartland or make the game more national?



I don't think the two are really related for starters; one would be at the national tier, administered directly by the ARLC and the others a level or two down from that and administered by the QRL. They would also be subject to separate funding independent of whether the Bears were there or not.

I'm not really sure how any of that addresses what I've said?

Seems there is two issues, 1. How to get the Bears back in the NRL so the historic brand isn't lost and what fanbase and corporate support their is left for them isn't lost 2. How to engage with Gosford and ensure the CC region remains a strong RL area. Whilst closely connected at the moment the two are not necessarily inclusive issues to each other. If Dave Smith tells the Bears that CC is definately in with a chance and then in 2014 announces Perth and Brisbane2 or another are in then it will be a disgrace as they will have missed the opportunity to resolve both issues. That doesn't mean they have to admit the CC Bears but they should at least be honest and up front and let the Bears know now their future lies elsewhere and let the RL fans on the CC know what the NRL is going to do to keep them engaged.

How is that a disgrace?


A lot of If's a flying around. I seriously doubt Flo has even considered or would seriously want to move the Bears from the NS/CC.

 

[***MH***]

Seeing Bluetongue Stadium draped in red and black from the Wanderers in the A League was an awesome site. Unfortunate that its the wrong team, in the wrong sport

This is what Bluetongue Stadium is capable of when passion comes to town.

The march to the stadium

An hour before kickoff

Also, a big wrap for the Wanderers supporters from the Settlers Tavern owners who hosted the pre and post match gathering for the away fans.

 

[The Great Dane]

A lot of If's a flying around. I seriously doubt Flo has even considered or would seriously want to move the Bears from the NS/CC.

Then he is a bloody idiot, it is quite obvious to the vast majority of people that NSWs chances of getting another team in the NRL are less then slim to none, put simply there are bigger fish to fry then the Central Coast at the moment, so for their own sake the Bears need to move onto greener pastures.

At the moment their is little to no opportunity for the Bears on the CC, they are just sitting there waiting to die, but their is heaps of opportunity for those that are willing to take the risk in Queensland, Adelaide, etc. etc.

So the Bears need to migrate or die out, though it is sad that it has come to this I prefer the prior.

 

[docbrown]

If the NRL nominates the regions it intends to expand, and the CC is left off of the agenda, then it would be wise for the Bears to consider merging their bid with another with the aim of engaging both the Coast and the other expansion region. Its a far more palatable scenario when compared to the CC never having a club which is likely if the current Bears bid is rejected. The other merging bid would immediately benefit from the existing brand of the Bears as well as immediately establishing a secondary fanbase in the CC/North Shore region.

Exactly.

I feel as others do that expansion in Perth, South-West Brisbane and New Zealand are important priorities given the nature and growing size of those markets, but if after this next round of expansion the Bears organisation is simply tossed aside and not given any future support for a later bid platform (either on the Central Coast or elsewhere) then that's just repeating old mistakes in new guises.

To me the choice for that 4th position comes down to Adelaide, Central Queensland or Central Coast. I've said previously that I put the Central Coast Bears ahead of a new Adelaide club or a new Central Queensland club in terms of what it would bring to the competition in support, sustainability and risk minimisation. Though a Bears team in Adelaide or Central Queensland is a slightly different story. Central Queensland is a smaller market than Central Coast and will continue to be so for the foreseeable future. Its major attraction is its regional location in Queensland. Adelaide is a bigger market than both but I think Adelaide will be a tough nut to crack and personally I think its a little bit foolhardy to even bother until Perth and Melbourne have come to fruition.

Unless a Sydney merger happens it's likely that 20 teams is the foreseeable limit within the next 5-15 years. I doubt the Bears would be willing, even be able to, be strung along for that amount of time without support from the NRL.

As said a Brisbane/CQ Bears playing 4 "away" games at Gosford may be the answer?

If the Central Coast is not one of the next 4 then that's what needs to be done, if not Brisbane/CQ, then in Adelaide or New Zealand.

Why is this round so crucial for the Bears? Of all the bids the are the ones for whom time means the least.

They've been out of the competition for more than a decade. Their fanbase is getting older and, well... dying. They will still have supporters 10/15/20 years from now but in lower numbers. Although I understand your comments about dead QRL clubs, why repeat that mistake again with the Bears when that fanbase can be rejuvenated? Even if they're not one the next 2 clubs, if they were to be announced and admitted as a 17th club in 2020, that would at least give their supporters something to work towards.

I've even said previously the same thought should be considered for the second Brisbane side if a club identity can be founded that appeases a majority of former/current QRL supporters. That may be hard to do though given that there are/were so many QRL clubs and there's likely to be only 1 Brisbane expansion team.

Seems there is two issues, 1. How to get the Bears back in the NRL so the historic brand isn't lost and what fanbase and corporate support their is left for them isn't lost 2. How to engage with Gosford and ensure the CC region remains a strong RL area. Whilst closely connected at the moment the two are not necessarily inclusive issues to each other. If Dave Smith tells the Bears that CC is definately in with a chance and then in 2014 announces Perth and Brisbane2 or another are in then it will be a disgrace as they will have missed the opportunity to resolve both issues. That doesn't mean they have to admit the CC Bears but they should at least be honest and up front and let the Bears know now their future lies elsewhere and let the RL fans on the CC know what the NRL is going to do to keep them engaged.

Yep.

 

[GAZF]

I'm not really sure how any of that addresses what I've said?

I can't seriously comment on Qlder perception to a long removed Sydney club but I can, as a general observer, comment on what chances another NSW team has of being admitted in the longer term. I personally do not think the Bears will ever regain entry IF they fail to gain entry in the next round of expansion AND THEN refuse to consider other options which, if they were chosen, would improve the national presence and overall balance of the league. Theres a reason that NSW teams have been culled and merged in the past. I may not have addressed your second point but I certainly addressed your first.

 

[Perth Red]

Arguably Adelaide is the weakest option yet does offer capital city expansion. With Bears alleged millions, sponsors and members then the NRL could fast track a team into Adelaide using the Bears. Massive risk but sometimes the bigger the odds the bigger the win.

 

[LJC]

Hang in there Bears fans!
An extra 4 clubs should see the light of day in the NRL over the coming years!

Quite simply , another club should be playing out of Brisbane.
The Central Coast Bears will consolidate support for RL throughout the NSW coast and in the influential business district of North Sydney.
The West Coast Pirates is a given for decent expansion and TV time zone planning. A further side stemming from either NZ South Island (Wellington Orcas) or (with some concerted development work) the "Adelaide Dingoes" would be valid expansion areas if the NRL wake up!

Twenty teams plus will give added hope and aspirations to the many juniors we are losing out of the Under20s competition and consolidate the RL identity and footprint throughout Australasia.

Let's see what happens but the latest shambles from the TV deal with respect to increased working week nite games is a tragedy and impost on fans that has gone down like a lead balloon. But the people who are making these decisions will hide behind ratings results where in fact the hidden damage of families attending the actual game will be a real loss!

Working adults and families are the ones that will suffer under the thoughtless regard being shown by greedy TV executives and ignorant club CEOs!

The continued Thursday nite and Monday nite games are a disgraceful decision against the attending fan and I might add that the added burden of a Sunday night game along wit these Thursday & Monday working night games are a shamefull reflection of overzealous and non caring TV executives and poor club CEOs!

I notice that the AFL sparingly have a Monday night game, whereas RL has just let it rule the roost almost every week! It's ridiculoius! So unfair for the attending fan and supporter and the hosting club. Hope they wake up!

 

[Lockyer4President!]

I can't seriously comment on Qlder perception to a long removed Sydney club but I can, as a general observer, comment on what chances another NSW team has of being admitted in the longer term. I personally do not think the Bears will ever regain entry IF they fail to gain entry in the next round of expansion AND THEN refuse to consider other options which, if they were chosen, would improve the national presence and overall balance of the league. Theres a reason that NSW teams have been culled and merged in the past. I may not have addressed your second point but I certainly addressed your first.

Why?
The Bears bid is undoubtedly stronger now after it lost out to the Gold Coast bid.

 

[papabear]

Which potential Brisbane area that wants a new team has a larger population then the northern Sydney area and central coast combined.

Northern Sydney includes
North Sydney council
Kuringgai
Hornsby
Hills

Add the central coast and you have over a million.

Ppl expect them to follow other sides when they have absolutely nothing to do with this area.

Honestly this side done right could be one of the biggest sporting organizations in sydney

 

[docbrown]

Arguably Adelaide is the weakest option yet does offer capital city expansion. With Bears alleged millions, sponsors and members then the NRL could fast track a team into Adelaide using the Bears. Massive risk but sometimes the bigger the odds the bigger the win.

Adelaide Bears is less risky than the Adelaide Whatevers but at the end of the day it's still a team in non-heartland market and that has its own unique set of issues. It's going to need a lot of support from the NRL.

Let's say in the scenario that you rule out Central Queensland simply because the Central Coast is the bigger market (which it is).

Well lets roughly compare the two markets and I'm using really rough metrics here (so hopefully others won't be too anal about it) -

Adelaide/SA vs Central Coast
Adelaide vs CC 2013 population: 1.25 million vs 0.33 million approx
Adelaide vs CC 2036 population: 1.85 million vs 0.5 million approx
SA vs CC/NS 2013 population: 1.66 million vs 0.9 million approx
SA vs CC/NS 2036 population: 2.09 million vs 1.3 million approx

If we base it on the Storm's experience after 15 years and approximate 25% support share, you could argue that in pure population numbers a CC RL team is likely to have just as many supporters if not more (I'd even argue that they'd be stronger supporters) as an Adelaide team would, not just now but also into 2036. Central Coast will also be continuing to grow at a faster % rate than Adelaide would, probably hitting 0.7-0.8 million by mid century.

Market size 2013: Major Market vs Middle Market
Market size 2036: Major Market vs Major Market
Growth: Weak Growth vs Strong Growth
Income: High vs High
Existing RL Base: Weak vs Strong
Club Home Base (new Adelaide club vs CCB): Weak vs Strong
Club Home Base (Adelaide Bears vs CCB): Weak vs Strong
Club Away Base in Sydney (new Adelaide club vs CCB): Weak vs Strong
Club Away Base in Sydney (Adelaide Bears vs CCB): Strong vs Strong

Two more things to note
- Adelaide offers further "Nationalisation" i.e. dots on a map
- But a Central Coast Bears club would more easily service North Sydney than an Adelaide Bears club simply given the proximity and existing branding. It's easier for away fans to travel from Gosford to Sydney so there's a more logical sense of supporter geography.

So to go one step further:

Population/Market Size (Now & Future): Adelaide
Nationalisation: Adelaide
Home Crowds: Central Coast Bears
Away Crowds: Central Coast Bears
More likely to revitalise North Sydney area: Central Coast Bears
Lowest Risk: Central Coast Bears
Largest Club/Rugby League supporter Base in their local area: Central Coast (the argument of being #1 in CC vs #2 or #3 in Adelaide)

That would be about the crux of my argument as to why I would favour the Central Coast Bears over Adelaide. Also not forgetting the good PR in healing an old super league wound for former pro-ARL supporters.

 

[Diesel]

If the Bears set up in Adelaide (for argument sake) would the NRL or other NSW based clubs be willing to take their home game on the road to Bluetounge Stadium, and would the Bears management accept this?

 

[docbrown]

With West Coast, South-West Brisbane, New Zealand II and Central Coast added, here's the kind of market share the NRL could aim for -

PNG – NRL#1, no team, neutral venue matches, rep matches
Sydney – NRL#1, 8 full time teams, 2 part time teams
Melbourne – NRL#2, 1 full time team, rep matches
Brisbane – NRL#1, 2 full time teams, rep matches
Perth – NRL#2, 1 full time team, rep matches
Auckland – NRL#2, 1 full time team, rep matches
Adelaide – NRL#3 or 4, no team, neutral venue matches, rep matches
Fiji - NRL#2, no team, rep matches
Gold Coast – NRL#1, 1 full time team, rep matches
Newcastle – NRL#1, 1 full time team, rep matches
Wellington – NRL#2, 1 part time team, rep matches
Canberra – NRL#1, 1 full time team, rep matches
Christchurch – NRL#2, 1 part time team, rep matches
Central Coast – NRL#1, 1 full time team, rep matches
Wollongong – NRL#1, 1 part time team, rep matches
Townsville-Cairns – NRL#1, 1 full time team, rep matches
Hamilton – NRL#2, no team, neutral venue matches
Sunshine Coast – NRL#1, neutral venue matches
Hobart – NRL#3 or 4, neutral venue matches
Central Queensland – NRL#1, neutral venue matches
Geelong – NRL#3 or 4, no permanent presence
Darwin – NRL#1, neutral venue matches, rep matches

In others words being the number one sport in 11 of the 16 major Australian markets and being second in 4 more million+ markets plus PNG & Fiji with the kind of regional/metro club template across Australia & New Zealand that the AFL/Union/A-League would be unable to replicate. 13 cities all hosting their own club.

More clubs with more supporters in more places.

 

[Clarke]

It would also give NSW 11 teams. That isn't real expansion.

Does it put a team in an area that currently isn't represented by a team in the NRL?

If the answer is yes, than that is expansion.

Then he is a bloody idiot, it is quite obvious to the vast majority of people that NSWs chances of getting another team in the NRL are less then slim to none, put simply there are bigger fish to fry then the Central Coast at the moment, so for their own sake the Bears need to move onto greener pastures.

At the moment their is little to no opportunity for the Bears on the CC, they are just sitting there waiting to die, but their is heaps of opportunity for those that are willing to take the risk in Queensland, Adelaide, etc. etc.

So the Bears need to migrate or die out, though it is sad that it has come to this I prefer the prior.

Opinion.

Hang in there Bears fans!
An extra 4 clubs should see the light of day in the NRL over the coming years!

Quite simply , another club should be playing out of Brisbane.
The Central Coast Bears will consolidate support for RL throughout the NSW coast and in the influential business district of North Sydney.
The West Coast Pirates is a given for decent expansion and TV time zone planning. A further side stemming from either NZ South Island (Wellington Orcas) or (with some concerted development work) the "Adelaide Dingoes" would be valid expansion areas if the NRL wake up!

Twenty teams plus will give added hope and aspirations to the many juniors we are losing out of the Under20s competition and consolidate the RL identity and footprint throughout Australasia.

Let's see what happens but the latest shambles from the TV deal with respect to increased working week nite games is a tragedy and impost on fans that has gone down like a lead balloon. But the people who are making these decisions will hide behind ratings results where in fact the hidden damage of families attending the actual game will be a real loss!

Working adults and families are the ones that will suffer under the thoughtless regard being shown by greedy TV executives and ignorant club CEOs!

The continued Thursday nite and Monday nite games are a disgraceful decision against the attending fan and I might add that the added burden of a Sunday night game along wit these Thursday & Monday working night games are a shamefull reflection of overzealous and non caring TV executives and poor club CEOs!

I notice that the AFL sparingly have a Monday night game, whereas RL has just let it rule the roost almost every week! It's ridiculoius! So unfair for the attending fan and supporter and the hosting club. Hope they wake up!

That didn't go off topic at all

 

[The Great Dane]

Fiji - NRL#2, no team, rep matches

After spending quite a lot of time in Fiji (and most of it not in the western resorts) I truly believe that RL could be number one over there in 20-30 years if we invested a fair amount of money and time into it strait away.

Honestly at the moment RU is number one then daylight in Fiji, but they seem to take Fiji for granted (and maybe all of the Pacific Islands, but I am not sure of that) and they don't have as much of a strangle hold on Fiji as they seem to think they have either.

 

[The Great Dane]

Opinion.

I'm guessing you live on the Central Coast then Clarke .

 

[Clarke]

I'm guessing you live on the Central Coast then Clarke .

Nope.

 

[Perth Red]

Adelaide Bears is less risky than the Adelaide Whatevers but at the end of the day it's still a team in non-heartland market and that has its own unique set of issues. It's going to need a lot of support from the NRL.

Let's say in the scenario that you rule out Central Queensland simply because the Central Coast is the bigger market (which it is).

Well lets roughly compare the two markets and I'm using really rough metrics here (so hopefully others won't be too anal about it) -

Adelaide/SA vs Central Coast
Adelaide vs CC 2013 population: 1.25 million vs 0.33 million approx
Adelaide vs CC 2036 population: 1.85 million vs 0.5 million approx
SA vs CC/NS 2013 population: 1.66 million vs 0.9 million approx
SA vs CC/NS 2036 population: 2.09 million vs 1.3 million approx

If we base it on the Storm's experience after 15 years and approximate 25% support share, you could argue that in pure population numbers a CC RL team is likely to have just as many supporters if not more (I'd even argue that they'd be stronger supporters) as an Adelaide team would, not just now but also into 2036. Central Coast will also be continuing to grow at a faster % rate than Adelaide would, probably hitting 0.7-0.8 million by mid century.

Market size 2013: Major Market vs Middle Market
Market size 2036: Major Market vs Major Market
Growth: Weak Growth vs Strong Growth
Income: High vs High
Existing RL Base: Weak vs Strong
Club Home Base (new Adelaide club vs CCB): Weak vs Strong
Club Home Base (Adelaide Bears vs CCB): Weak vs Strong
Club Away Base in Sydney (new Adelaide club vs CCB): Weak vs Strong
Club Away Base in Sydney (Adelaide Bears vs CCB): Strong vs Strong

Two more things to note
- Adelaide offers further "Nationalisation" i.e. dots on a map
- But a Central Coast Bears club would more easily service North Sydney than an Adelaide Bears club simply given the proximity and existing branding. It's easier for away fans to travel from Gosford to Sydney so there's a more logical sense of supporter geography.

So to go one step further:

Population/Market Size (Now & Future): Adelaide
Nationalisation: Adelaide
Home Crowds: Central Coast Bears
Away Crowds: Central Coast Bears
More likely to revitalise North Sydney area: Central Coast Bears
Lowest Risk: Central Coast Bears
Largest Club/Rugby League supporter Base in their local area: Central Coast (the argument of being #1 in CC vs #2 or #3 in Adelaide)

That would be about the crux of my argument as to why I would favour the Central Coast Bears over Adelaide. Also not forgetting the good PR in healing an old super league wound for former pro-ARL supporters.

Wouldn't argue with any of that but you missed out that Adelaide has zero NRL to service the population and cc has numerous teams within 60-90minutes away. I don't doubt CC Bears could be a bigger and stronger club than a number of existing Sydney clubs but we are not talking about replacing an existing club we are talking about expansion, expansion into new markets, Dave Smith has given the strongest indication yet that the arlc do not see another nsw team as expansion.

 

[GAZF]

Why?
The Bears bid is undoubtedly stronger now after it lost out to the Gold Coast bid.

No doubt that they are the strongest bid. But the ARLC won't expand to an area based solely on the strength of the bid. There are other factors that may have precedence over a well organised bid.

 

[LJC]

Does it put a team in an area that currently isn't represented by a team in the NRL?

If the answer is yes, than that is expansion.



Opinion.



That didn't go off topic at all

Valid, but I thought it worth mentioning, and believe it or not , has a massive impact on the develpment of the game and clubs membership futures.