News Coronavirus and NRL

[Springs09]

Some perspective is perhaps a good idea.
https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/influenza-(seasonal)

Seasonal flu in its various forms ....."annual epidemics are estimated to result in about 3 to 5 million cases of severe illness, and about 290 000 to 650 000 respiratory deaths".

Taken at the lower estimate of 290,000 deaths per annum would mean that since the outbreak of COVID-19 ( some 2 months ago ) the flu has already killed approx 49,000 people around the world.

The total fatalities so far for COVID-19 is around 4,600. ...with 3,169 of those being in China and 90% of those cases from the Wuhan district among the elderly ( where the scientists believe a more virulent strain was responsible ) Chinese numbers of new cases are dropping. Of the 80,000 cases in China 63,000 have so far recovered.

The media wont let facts get in the way of the story of the century thus far. Some of the headlines I've read are downright irresponsible.

Enough with the sense, you're supposed to be panicking.

The NRL should have been cancelled for good the minute Ben Hannant caught swine flu.

An infectious disease expert (Michael Osterholm) on the Joe Rogan podcast just stated that "this could be 10-15 times worse than the worst seasonal flu that we see", and also that "it is just beginning and will unfold for months"...

Now granted he probably doesn't have the credentials of AJB or Timmah on this topic, but I'd nevertheless take advice from the experts.

The Coronavirus will have a massive impact on the NRL season. Just as it's already had a massive impact on the NBA and the European football seasons. And the tennis season.

Hip jokes about bog rolls won't make it go away. Science doesn't work like that.

But that's just sport. It's small businesses and their employees that I feel sorry for the most.

10-15x worse hey?
Given that 5%-20% (350m - 1.4b) of the population gets the flu each year, looks like 3.5 billion to 21 billion people are gonna get COVID-19. Man, it's gonna kill me three times.

So it's 10-15x worse mortality rate wise? Flu is 0.1% mortality, so Covid-19 is 1-1.5%? SARS was 10%, MERS is 34%. Swine Flu in 2009 was thought to have 0.5% to 4% fatality, it ended up being 0.02%.

 

[some11]

When your average deadshit NRL player's week consists of getting pissed at the pub and snorting coke at nightclubs it's probably just a matter of time.

 

[Valheru]

I would be surprised if by the end of tomorrow, mass gatherings will still be allowed.

I could be wrong, but certainly won't be too far off. Which is the end of going to the footy until further notice.

I would prepare to be surprised if i were you.

 

[Bronco18]

When your average deadshit NRL player's week consists of getting pissed at the pub and snorting coke at nightclubs it's probably just a matter of time.

Don’t forget bumping uglies with schoolgirls

 

[wibble]

I have been quoting how bad flu is each season for weeks. But wondering why China went into lockdown in many areas if it was just a flu.

Pretty clearly we don't know exactly how bad it is, but it seems like it spreads as easily as a cold (not surprising, since a lot of colds are coronaviruses), but is at least as deadly, and maybe a lot more deadly, than a flu, which doesn't spread as much and we have vaccines for every year.

So both best case and worst case are not great with coronavirus, though I doubt it is apocalyptic.

Trump made the valid point that many people are probably mildly infected and not diagnosed, so the death rate is probably well under the 3 or 4% we see quoted. But that also means the infection rate is much higher than the 2 to 2 and a half people each patient spreads it to that we also see.

Rather, each person who is bad enough to get tested, spreads it to 2 to 2 and a half people who are bad enough to get tested, and of those, 3 to 4% die. The fact that a whole heap others get it but not bad enough to know is not that comforting in the wake of those numbers.

Super League has to play the Catalans v Leeds game in front of an empty stadium, so that is the first league game affected (as it is in France, and they have banned crowds over 1000).

But it is starting to spread through our community, not just from overseas, so it is only a matter of time before we see restrictions of some sort here. Not to mention the NRL's response if players get infected (which seems likely). If a whole team is infected, (or even "just" 6 or 7 of the top squad), surely the match at least needs to be postponed?

I think we are at the tip of an iceberg, as containment has failed. We have good medical facilities, and the state and federal governments seem well on top, so hopefully that means a longer, lower peak of infection, season of this. But that doesn't mean we won't see things like banned crowds, and games postponed.

The AFL, Rugby, and most professional sports through the world are going to have games with no crowds and delays in their seasons, this year.

 

[wibble]

I would prepare to be surprised if i were you.

Federal opposition have called for it already.

I also don't think tomorrow is likely, but it is possible.

Sometime soon though, I would think is more likely than not.

12 new cases today in NSW turns into a thousand in a week, and a million in two weeks, if there aren't controls to restrict the virus (which obviously there are at the moment, but there will be more as we get towards a thousand cases).

 

[King hit]

Was the NRL in danger of being postponed in 2009 with the swine flu outbreak? I can't remember

 

[Mr. Shaman]

Closed cases of Covid19 shows a 6% death rate - or 60x more lethal than the flu.

 

[mozza91]

Was the NRL in danger of being postponed in 2009 with the swine flu outbreak? I can't remember

Shows how much the sensationalism has increased in the media over the last decade.

 

[Valheru]

Closed cases of Covid19 shows a 6% death rate - or 60x more lethal than the flu.

True

Worth noting the following though.

Mortality rate of 50-59 year olds is 1.3% and it gets lower as age decreases.

Mortality rate with no pre-existing conditions. 0.9%

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

 

[Mr. Shaman]

True

Worth noting the following though.

Mortality rate of 50-59 year olds is 1.3% and it gets lower as age decreases.

Mortality rate with no pre-existing conditions. 0.9%

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

What are the death by age stats for the Flu? I'd imagine it'd be similar numbers.

 

[Valheru]

What are the death by age stats for the Flu? I'd imagine it'd be similar numbers.

The best source i can find is below

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bu...us-compared-to-flu-mortality-rates-2020-3?amp

It suggests anapprox .02% mortality rate for flu for those under 50 compared to approx .2% for corona so 10 x more deadly.

The other thing to note is the belief by many that there are far more unreported/undiscovered mild cases in the community so that mortality rate may come well down in the wash up.

 

[Springs09]

The best source i can find is below

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-compared-to-flu-mortality-rates-2020-3?amp

It suggests anapprox .02% mortality rate for flu for those under 50 compared to approx .2% for corona so 10 x more deadly.

The other thing to note is the belief by many that there are far more unreported/undiscovered mild cases in the community so that mortality rate may come well down in the wash up.

It’s not just a belief, it’s a fact. How many people with a cold or the flu are officially diagnosed? Most people would just think they have a cold or the flu.

 

[Knight76]

I would prepare to be surprised if i were you.

I sincerely hope I am wrong.

Mclaren have withdrawn from Melbourne GP.

F1 has said they cannot race if one team is out, or not for points anyhow. Can't see how the race still goes ahead.

All it will take is one player to become infected and the NRL will be suspended. One player exposes a whole team, plus the team they just played. Both teams in quarantine for 2 weeks, and thats the ball game.



.

 

[blue bags]

dont stress out kids with this ok , be careful, its not the end of the world

 

[Life's Good]

Shows how much the sensationalism has increased in the media over the last decade.

That’s because traditional media is in a race with social media on driving up
the excitement/hype/exaggeration/outrage (delete where appropriate).

 

[Knight76]

For those still under the impression this is all a media beat up and not a serious concern.

https://www.news.com.au/national/br...d/news-story/a88cac9e3a4a95206bce864df4e3c34c

NSW Chief medical officer states preparations are underway at the moment for this wave of Covid19 to infect 20% of the state, with 5% of those requiring intensive care which equates to 80,000 intensive care patients.

Obviously not all at the same time, but factoring in current intensive care patients, plus the influx of covid19 patients the hospitals are in real danger of being overloaded.

Granted this is likely to be a higher estimate scenario, but this thinking, and planning for a larger scale outbreak is what is going to force the gov to take all necessary steps to slow the outbreak to give the system time to cope. And that will include banning large gatherings.

 

[BunniesMan]

This is a beat up. The media gets clicks and viewers by harping on any worst case scenario. The worst case scenario does not happen 99 times out of 100. Every time there is a cyclone here, or a hurricane or snow storm in the US, there is apocalyptic fear mongering. 99 times out of 100 it is not that bad.

There will not be millions of deaths. Every year we have hundreds of fatal car accidents, tens of thousands of cancer deaths and flu deaths, and we don't drive the economy off the rails and into the sea for every individual tragedy.

1% deaths overall from Coronavirus, near 0 for young people. The vast majority of deaths would be avoided if just the old and the sick are quarantined. We do not need to shut down entire sectors of the economy.

P.S. I still will appreciate the 750 bucks I am getting from ScoMo as a uni student, even though it is a beat up.

 

[mozza91]

20% of the state. 1.6 million people.

There’s been 78 cases in NSW so far. In what f**king universe are the above numbers even close to feasible? This is fear mongering at its absolute worst.

Can a Royal get married or something to distract the media from their scare campaign.

 

[herbert henry1908]

20% of the state. 1.6 million people.

There’s been 78 cases in NSW so far. In what f**king universe are the above numbers even close to feasible? This is fear mongering at its absolute worst.

Can a Royal get married or something to distract the media from their scare campaign.

How is it the media scare campaign? That number comes from NSW authorities. It’s obviously a worst case scenario, but the media reporting it aren’t in the wrong.

My guess is that numbere is modelled on the presumption of business as usual. Ie. no extreme measures put in place to stop the spread.