Dare to dream

[vvvrulz]

The NRL is a weird comp this year, if we keep this up we could very well end up 4th but screw it up and we could be 15th.

 

[Philip_Smith007]

The neighbour's obviously a Sunday arvo ignoramus. Good excuse to go to the pub, eradio I'm settling in here to listen live on radio and (hopefully) have Phil's real time thread.

If so (Phil would be doing this off radio also?) I hope he's kind. I don't want too many "FAAAARKS!", just when things are looking good for us.

Sorry had family commitments (they got lucky with the delayed game) but more of a visual sports watcher than radio.

Bunnies game in Perth is Sunday 4.30 WA, so 6.30AEST and 8.30 NZT
Bye
Tigers Friday 7.45AEST (better be live into NSW)
Storm Sunday 12.00AEST
Then god knows the last 6 rounds.

Only game Chan 9 might like is Manly game at blue tongue. But bunnies/storm same round.
Hoping for no more delayed games.

 

[LeagueNut]

I might keep this thread going for a few weeks...

Current ladder:

5th - Titans - 18 pts (+17)
6th - Sharks - 18 pts (-16)
7th - Bulldogs - 18 pts (-23)
8th - Knights - 16 pts (+71)
9th - Panthers - 16 pts (+36)
10th - Warriors - 16 pts (-64)
11th - Raiders - 16 pts (-66)

Round 17:

The Knights are playing the Bulldogs in Mackay, and the Panthers are playing the Titans in Darwin.

For us to sneak into the Top 8 we need the Knights and Panthers to lose, we need to beat the Rabbitohs, and we need the Raiders to not overtake our for-and-against (they're playing the Cowboys in Canberra!).

BUT if the Knights and / or Panthers win, that means either the Bulldogs and / or Titans will stay on 18 points, so they'll move into striking distance - especially since we get an automatic two points the following week with the Bye.

I know it's a cliche - but KEEP THE FAITH!!

 

[MKEB...]

That sounds quite feasible, do you think we can take the Bunnies. The optimisti me says yes...the realistic me says: winning the 6th in a row and against the Bunnies may be a bridge too far...

 

[TheDMC]

That sounds quite feasible, do you think we can take the Bunnies. The optimisti me says yes...the realistic me says: winning the 6th in a row and against the Bunnies may be a bridge too far...

Maybe they will use last year's shocker in Perth as extra motivation...redemption!

They can win, but to do so, and to be a genuine finals team, they have to sort out the attacking structures in the opposition 20. Its like we just fumble around for three or four tackles to get to the final one before actually trying something. Nearly every play in the 20 needs to be a strategic one building into the next..ala Melbourne.

If we do win, and then following the bye in Round 18 we will have the same points and win-loss ratio as last year Round 18 (8-8). Well set up for a finals push or a woeful descent into oblivion.

On that cherry note, adieu..

 

[Diesel]

After the Storm game (round 20 I think), who are we playing? IIRC we finish with;
Manly A
Dragons A
Raiders H

About 28 points being the cut off for 8th, and have a bye in round 18, Tigers A and Storm H are both games we can win, worse case we are 18 points at round 20 and should beat the Dragons and Raiders

 

[jaseg]

Given our points difference I think you can revise any required points cutoff to one more than the 'normal' estimate tbh

And we actually finish;

H - Panthers
A - Titans
H - Raiders
A - Dragons

We've gotten ourselves into a decent position now. Assuming 29-30 points gets us in the 8, we have 1 bye meaning we need 6 wins from our remaining matches.

A - Tigers
H - Sharks
H - Panthers
A - Titans
H - Raiders
A - Dragons
(there are other games inbetween some of these)
All of those 6 are winnable IMHO - and that would mean any points out of Souths (A), Storm (H) and Manly (A) are bonuses.

 

[LeagueNut]

If we do win, and then following the bye in Round 18 we will have the same points and win-loss ratio as last year Round 18 (8-8). Well set up for a finals push or a woeful descent into oblivion.

:lol: That's a wee bit scary...

 

[vvvrulz]

A - Tigers
H - Sharks
H - Panthers
A - Titans
H - Raiders
A - Dragons
(there are other games inbetween some of these)
All of those 6 are winnable IMHO - and that would mean any points out of Souths (A), Storm (H) and Manly (A) are bonuses.

That's a really good finishing run, and if we really put points on board against them we can fix up that points differential. If we take say even just 1-2 out of the 3 "tough games" and win 5-6 of the rest we should be all set to finish anywhere between 4 and 8.

Who would have thought this season would brighten up so much.

 

[Skinner]

He lost me when he said the f word

 

[Blair]

How's this for a stat, it's a given that we should have won at least two of those eight games we lost earlier this year.

That would put us in fourth spot right now, one ahead of Manly.

 

[JoeD]

Problem is every team has a couple of games they should have won (see Brisbane last weekend) When every team puts that shoulda points onto their total we are right back where we started.

 

[TheDMC]

Agree that would'ves and could'ves are irrelevant.

Also think identifying games that we should target to win is setting yourself up to fail. We need to win 6 of our last nine, who cares which ones - we need the mentality of winning every game if possible (this finals systems means outside top four as good as dead).

I also don't think points differential is important. If that determines whether or not we make the top eight then quite simply we did not play very well for our last 9 games and don't deserve to be in the finals. Play well the backend of the season, we make the 8.

Biggest thing in our favor at this stage, and I have all appendages touching wood in the hope it continues, is that we have a quite healthy squad. Prop rotation there, key players there, our best backline there and even some depth on the edges/fullback. It's no coincidence that our winning run has come on the back of having a fit squad to choose from. Teams that make the top four each year generally are those who have used the least players...least injuries.

 

[ozbash]

Agree that would'ves and could'ves are irrelevant.

no they are not irrelevant.

they are inexcusable.

 

[Philip_Smith007]

Another week outside the 8, unless a massive 60 point win.:crazy:

 

[Blair]

Another week outside the 8, unless a massive 60 point win.:crazy:

It really is frustrating isn't it? All these wins and our progress up the table is like...

 

[TheDMC]

It matters nought for now...no need for premature ejaculation, its where we come end of Round 26 that counts...and the tightness of the table means any team in the top 12 can insert themselves into 4th if they go hard and perform.

 

[Philip_Smith007]

Its fun to at least be able to speculate.
With our current negative +/- we prob need 30 points to make it.
So we have 18 after the bye,
Need 6 wins from final 8 games.

Rd19: Tigers, away, Friday 7:45pm aest
Rd20: Storm, home, Sunday 12pm aest
Rd21: Sharks, home, Saturday 3pm aest
Rd22: Manly, away, Sunday 2pm aest
Rd23: Panthers, home, Sunday 2pm aest
Rd24: Titans, away, Saturday, 5:30pm aest
Rd25: Raiders, home, Saturday 3pm aest
Rd26: Dragons, away, Saturday 3pm aest

So only one dreaded post 5:30 aest kick off.

 

[vvvrulz]

If we play as good as we have been, we should get that 6 from 8.

But what worries me is our ability to get up for the big guns and somehow mess up the games we should be winning. And by mess up I mean put 20+ on teams like the Dragons like we should be. Most of those teams are those awkward sides which can suddenly turn up on their day and hurt us.

Its a tough comp, we could finish 4th or 14th!

 

[NZ Warrior]

I know the Dragons are pretty shit. But that R26 away game against them gives me an uneasy feeling!