Do you want Brad Arthur as coach

[strider]

Good stuff. Given the combined payout on us winning is $19.74 and on our opposition is $10.85, then 2 from 6 is the real expectation. But it would be cool to see some math wiz get the detailed numbers.

ping @hindy111

 

[I'm a loser baby...]

ping @hindy111

I just worked it out. We should have won 2.13 games from 6.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

Here you go. Odds below with winning teams bolded.

2020 v Souths - Eels $3.75 Souths $1.29
2020 v Melbourne - Eels $5.00 Melbourne $1.18
2019 v Melbourne - Eels $3.12 Melbourne $1.35
2019 v Broncos - Eels $1.52 Broncos $2.60
2017 v Cowboys - Eels $1.26 Cowboys $3.25
2017 v Melbourne - Eels $5.10 Storm $1.18

From what I can see the Cowboys game in 2017 is the biggest disappointment. To illustrate this I have coloured it 'shit brown'. We should have won that one but we played like mincers.

But should we have won that game? Merkins saw Thurston and Scott missing but that team were premiers two years earlier and had Taumalolo plus four current Origin players on the field against us that day. It was a case of the odds reflecting form rather than quality. The Cowboys also beat the defending premiers (Cronulla) and the Roosters in that finals series. Meanwhile we played our grand final in Melbourne the week before (and lost by 2 points). But you're right, it was still our most winnable finals match after the Broncos demolition.

 

[Gary Gutful]

I just worked it out. We should have won 2.13 games from 6.

I got 1.82.

I used this website to convert a betting odd into a probability.

 

[I'm a loser baby...]

I got 1.82.

I used this website to convert a betting odd into a probability.

19.74 + 10.85 = 30.59
19.74/ 30.59 = 0.645
0.645 x 6 = 3.87

So I've got it at 3.87 losses out of 6, or 2.13 Wins. To be under 2 the return on us would have to be more than double the return on them.

 

[Gary Gutful]

19.74 + 10.85 = 30.59
19.74/ 30.59 = 0.645
0.645 x 6 = 3.87

So I've got it at 3.87 losses out of 6, or 2.13 Wins. To be under 2 the return on us would have to be more than double the return on them.

I went:
19.74/6 = average odds $3.29
1/3.29 = 30.4% probability of winning
(30.4/100) x 6 = 1.82 games

 

[Gary Gutful]

If only there was a smart merkin on here to tell us who is right?

 

[I'm a loser baby...]

If only there was a smart merkin on here to tell us who is right?

Your calculation would only work if bookies paid out 100% of what they receive So if you work out how many games our opponents should have won with your method you get 3.33. And 3.33 + 1.82 = 5.15 when it should be 6.

 

[Gary Gutful]

Your calculation would only work if bookies paid out 100% of what they receive So if you work out how many games our opponents should have won with your method you get 3.33. And 3.33 + 1.82 = 5.15 when it should be 6.

Thats true. Well played.

 

[Gary Gutful]

Nerd.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

Nerd.

You rang?

Active coaches with career NRL win percentage above 65% (winning record vs Arthur's in italics):
Bellamy

60%-65%:
Bennett
Robinson

55%-60%:
Griffin
Hasler

50%-55%:
Arthur
Cleary
Maguire
O'Brien
Stuart

 

[Gary Gutful]

Arthur cant even beat Arthur. What a deadshit.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

Arthur's career win rate against all coaches (active coaches in bold):

100% Brennan (1 game)
100% Elliot (1 game)
100% Gentle (1 game)
100% Georgallis (1 game)
100% Hodges (1 game)
100% Holbrook (1 game)
100% O'Brien (1 game)
100% Payten (1 game)
100% Sharp (1 game)
100% Shepherd (1 game)
100% Smith (1 game)
100% Stone (1 game)
100% Walters (1 game)
80% Barrett (5 games)
78% McGregor (9 games)
75% Morris (4 games)
75% Toovey (4 games)
69% Maguire (13 games)
67% Cleary (12 games)
60% Pay (5 games)
58% Hasler (12 games)
50% Cartwright (2 games)
50% Price (2 games)
50% Kearney (4 games)
50% Seibold (6 games)
50% Taylor (4 games)
42% Stuart (12 games)
38% Green (13 games)
38% Griffin (8 games)
33% Bellamy (12 games)
33% Brown (6 games)
33% Henry (6 games)
27% Bennett (11 games)
25% Robinson (8 games)
25% McFadden (4 games)
0% Flanagan (5 games)
0% Potter (1 game)
0% Sheens (1 game)

 

[Poupou Escobar]

 

[Gazzamatta]

Arthur's career win rate against all coaches (active coaches in bold):

100% Brennan (1 game)
100% Elliot (1 game)
100% Gentle (1 game)
100% Georgallis (1 game)
100% Hodges (1 game)
100% Holbrook (1 game)
100% O'Brien (1 game)
100% Payten (1 game)
100% Sharp (1 game)
100% Shepherd (1 game)
100% Smith (1 game)
100% Stone (1 game)
100% Walters (1 game)
80% Barrett (5 games)
78% McGregor (9 games)
75% Morris (4 games)
75% Toovey (4 games)
69% Maguire (13 games)
67% Cleary (12 games)
60% Pay (5 games)
58% Hasler (12 games)
50% Cartwright (2 games)
50% Price (2 games)
50% Kearney (4 games)
50% Seibold (6 games)
50% Taylor (4 games)
42% Stuart (12 games)
38% Green (13 games)
38% Griffin (8 games)
33% Bellamy (12 games)
33% Brown (6 games)
33% Henry (6 games)
27% Bennett (11 games)
25% Robinson (8 games)
25% McFadden (4 games)
0% Flanagan (5 games)
0% Potter (1 game)
0% Sheens (1 game)

So that's why he sacked Potter and threatened to walk if MON bought in Flanagan as his assistant.

 

[hineyrulz]

My head hurts.

 

[Malabar Eel]

Arthur's career win rate against all coaches (active coaches in bold):

100% Brennan (1 game)
100% Elliot (1 game)
100% Gentle (1 game)
100% Georgallis (1 game)
100% Hodges (1 game)
100% Holbrook (1 game)
100% O'Brien (1 game)
100% Payten (1 game)
100% Sharp (1 game)
100% Shepherd (1 game)
100% Smith (1 game)
100% Stone (1 game)
100% Walters (1 game)
80% Barrett (5 games)
78% McGregor (9 games)
75% Morris (4 games)
75% Toovey (4 games)
69% Maguire (13 games)
67% Cleary (12 games)
60% Pay (5 games)
58% Hasler (12 games)
50% Cartwright (2 games)
50% Price (2 games)
50% Kearney (4 games)
50% Seibold (6 games)
50% Taylor (4 games)
42% Stuart (12 games)
38% Green (13 games)
38% Griffin (8 games)
33% Bellamy (12 games)
33% Brown (6 games)
33% Henry (6 games)
27% Bennett (11 games)
25% Robinson (8 games)
25% McFadden (4 games)
0% Flanagan (5 games)
0% Potter (1 game)
0% Sheens (1 game)

ffs whats with this twinkie analysis? We need a graph or pie chart ffs.

 

[Gary Gutful]

Bennett, Bellamy and Robinson appear to have a long history of crushing him like a pissant.

 

[Gronk]

Bennett, Bellamy and Robinson appear to have a long history of crushing him like a pissant.

* salary sombreros.

 

[IFR33K]

No. You are acting like the outsider SHOULD win and are being provided with some perspective.

With decent leads throughout some of the games, and our championship defense, it wasn’t impossible to go on and at least win one of those game. But hey, we have stability right?