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Eels in the media

TheRam

Coach
Messages
13,911
This is where the team with the best points differential has finished since:

2002 3rd
2003 3rd
2004 Runner-up
2005 3rd
2006 Runner-up
2007 Premiers*
2008 Runner-up
2009 5th
2010 Premiers
2011 Runner-up
2012 Premiers
2013 Premiers
2014 3rd
2015 3rd
2016 Runner-up
2017 Premiers
2018 Premiers
2019 3rd
2020 Runner-up
2021 3rd

This is where each premier ranked on points differential.

2002 4th
2003 4th
2004 2nd
2005 5th
2006 3rd
2007 1st*
2008 2nd
2009 2nd*
2010 1st
2011 2nd
2012 1st
2013 1st
2014 2nd
2015 3rd
2016 4th
2017 1st
2018 1st
2019 2nd
2020 2nd
2021 2nd

This is where Parra ranked on points differential in the last 3 years.

2019 5th
2020 6th
2021 6th

Some takeaways:

* 2009 Dragons are the biggest finals underachievers in the last 20 years, followed by last year's Storm.
* 2005 Tigers are the biggest finals overachivers followed by the Sharks in 2016.
* Teams that finish 3rd or better in points differential have won 85% of the premierships.
* We haven't managed better than 5th in points differential in the last 3 years. The 2005 Tigers are the only team to have won a premiership with such a poor differential.

The biggest take away is that losing games or winning them unconvincingly at any stage including March, April and May(the early part of the season) really does make a difference on your chances to be Premiers after all.

Hmmm...I wonder who thought, on this forum, that every game counts and who thought they are not all equal and as long as you get it right at the pointy end of the season everything will be right? In other words, "stop freaking out and having meltdown guys it's only March ffs," type of rebuttals to our legitimate concerns.

Guts, Pou, Gronk...anyone else who doesn't think every game counts?

How you play in every game dictates how you play at the pointy end of the season. This taking a dump on us who understand this is once again exposed by your own selves no less as total bullsh*t and just an expression of your annoying and pathetic apologist mentality.

I'll say it again...Every freakin game counts and what we do during games and how we play freakin counts. That is why people like Hineyrulz, me and others are so freakin frustrated with our coaching staff who just keep dishing up the same crap year after year and they are all still there coaching away like they are onto a winning formula. The head coach needs to have his head read for persisting with a flawed system that can't get it right both in the red zone offensively and the defensive side of things in general. Thank Christ on a bike that he has seen fit to at least bring in some extra coaching personnel or at least was made to this season.
 
Last edited:

TheRam

Coach
Messages
13,911
incredible how some people cant see that, its only LBAs and TAs that count apparently, yet they don't see that saving 6 or 12 points can win games

Who said? I think most get this very basic fundamental point mate. He was bog average though, until this season, in the attack side of the game. You know the other 50% of the game.
 

T-Boon

Coach
Messages
16,010
Unfocused? Are you joking. The guy won us many games with his D. Defence is attitude. Ffs Poo.
So is attack. He dropped a lot of ball last year which is a sign he lacked focus at times through games. It is likely/certain that his form this year is based on being more focussed and working harder at training etc.
Hopefully that is just maturing rather than being due to being off contract. It is a talked about thing in NRL that some players are better in seasons they are coming off contract.
 

T-Boon

Coach
Messages
16,010
there is no way good cover tackling stats are as important or even comparable as/to TAs and LBAs.
Cover tackles and try svers are common (someone on the team will do it most of the time) whereas TA's are rare as heck and linebreaks are even rarer.
 

Gary Gutful

Post Whore
Messages
53,156
The biggest take away is that losing games or winning them unconvincingly at any stage including March, April and May(the early part of the season) really does make a difference on your chances to be Premiers after all.

Hmmm...I wonder who thought, on this forum, that every game counts and who thought they are not all equal and as long as you get it right at the pointy end of the season everything will be right? In other words, "stop freaking out and having meltdown guys it's only March ffs," type of rebuttals to our legitimate concerns.

Guts, Pou, Gronk...anyone else who doesn't think every game counts?

How you play in every game dictates how you play at the pointy end of the season. This taking a dump on us who understand this is once again exposed by your own selves no less as total bullsh*t and just an expression of your annoying and pathetic apologist mentality.

I'll say it again...Every freakin game counts and what we do during games and how we play freakin counts. That is why people like Hineyrulz, me and others are so freakin frustrated with our coaching staff who just keep dishing up the same crap year after year and they are all still there coaching away like they are onto a winning formula. The head coach needs to have his head read for persisting with a flawed system that can't get it right both in the red zone offensively and the defensive side of things in general. Thank Christ on a bike that he has seen fit to at least bring in some extra coaching personnel or at least was made to this season.
What the freakin hell are you freakin on about?

Are you talking about the meltdown that merkins had when we lost by 2 points to the Sharks?

We are coming third at the moment, with the third best F and A. Clearly, it hasn't had a major impact on us.

Do you expect us to be undefeated all year? I honestly don't understand what point it is that you are trying to prove.
 

TheRam

Coach
Messages
13,911
What the freakin hell are you freakin on about?

Are you talking about the meltdown that merkins had when we lost by 2 points to the Sharks?

We are coming third at the moment, with the third best F and A. Clearly, it hasn't had a major impact on us.

Do you expect us to be undefeated all year? I honestly don't understand what point it is that you are trying to prove.

Sure mate.
 

Gary Gutful

Post Whore
Messages
53,156
Here's the combined percentage of games that the Preliminary Finalists had won after Round 5 in previous years.

2021 - 65%
2020 - 65%
2019 - 85%
2018 - 45% (only one team in the 8)
2017 - 75%

This is our current winning percentage - 75%

I was going to go back further but I dont think I need to...
 

TheRam

Coach
Messages
13,911
Here's the combined percentage of games that the Preliminary Finalists had won after Round 5 in previous years.

2021 - 65%
2020 - 65%
2019 - 85%
2018 - 45% (only one team in the 8)
2017 - 75%

This is our current winning percentage - 75%

I was going to go back further but I dont think I need to...

If you stopped to read my comments properly, you would see that I mentioned that it isn't just about winning, but how you play and win also(thus for and against). Year after year we haven't improved that to a level that gives us fans the confidence that we can win the tough and brutal end of season games other then the one off here and there as we have been.

Which is exactly what has happened under this coach so far. We need to play with purpose and direction when in the red zone, not look lost and then rely on a decent kick to save our bacon if we are lucky. The best teams like the Panthers, Storm and Roosters when in the red zone for the most part have a plan and purpose in how to open up and strip the defense for numbers. We don't.

As for defensive patterns, we are still a mile off from the better defending teams and leak like a sieve way to often especially around the edges.

No matter what you or your supporters on this forum say, history and results are the proof in the pudding. Everything else you say are just excused and apologists grasping at straws.

Until we start to nail teams with strategy and purpose when in the red zone nothing will change. Until we learn to defend better nothing will change. Winning games during the season proper is only 75% of the equation. The other 25% is how well you play while winning and have you the game to trouble the best teams when it counts? So far we have proven we don't and the for and against figures only reinforces that.

If we can fix that 25% of our game in the course of this season, then our for and against will reflect that and we will be one of the top one or two teams in the comp and therefore I and everyone else will feel that we have at least a 50-50 chance of taking it out.

If we don't then we will have a very similar ending to the season as we have in the last couple of seasons. Or if we get extremely lucky we can bank on having a run like the Tigers did and take it out in a very unexpected fashion. Which of course is not something that happens all that often.

So you see winning is obviously vital, but how you win is extremely telling on the chances you have of actually doing anything amazing at the end of the season or just making up the numbers. So far we have and are making up the numbers.
 

Gary Gutful

Post Whore
Messages
53,156
If you stopped to read my comments properly, you would see that I mentioned that it isn't just about winning, but how you play and win also(thus for and against). Year after year we haven't improved that to a level that gives us fans the confidence that we can win the tough and brutal end of season games other then the one off here and there as we have been.

Which is exactly what has happened under this coach so far. We need to play with purpose and direction when in the red zone, not look lost and then rely on a decent kick to save our bacon if we are lucky. The best teams like the Panthers, Storm and Roosters when in the red zone for the most part have a plan and purpose in how to open up and strip the defense for numbers. We don't.

As for defensive patterns, we are still a mile off from the better defending teams and leak like a sieve way to often especially around the edges.

No matter what you or your supporters on this forum say, history and results are the proof in the pudding. Everything else you say are just excused and apologists grasping at straws.

Until we start to nail teams with strategy and purpose when in the red zone nothing will change. Until we learn to defend better nothing will change. Winning games during the season proper is only 75% of the equation. The other 25% is how well you play while winning and have you the game to trouble the best teams when it counts? So far we have proven we don't and the for and against figures only reinforces that.

If we can fix that 25% of our game in the course of this season, then our for and against will reflect that and we will be one of the top one or two teams in the comp and therefore I and everyone else will feel that we have at least a 50-50 chance of taking it out.

If we don't then we will have a very similar ending to the season as we have in the last couple of seasons. Or if we get extremely lucky we can bank on having a run like the Tigers did and take it out in a very unexpected fashion. Which of course is not something that happens all that often.

So you see winning is obviously vital, but how you win is extremely telling on the chances you have of actually doing anything amazing at the end of the season or just making up the numbers. So far we have and are making up the numbers.
Why are you yelling at me about the importance of for and against? I analysed the last 20 years worth of data and arrived at the same conclusion earlier in this thread.

I also analysed data that indicates losing early in the season doesn't destroy a team's chance of going deep in the finals.

Your fallback when you don't understand cause and effect or analysis of data is to label it as an 'excuse'. I think thats incredibly narrow minded. I prefer to try and understand why. Just becuase I do that it doesn't mean that I am excusing anything. I've been critical of the club, our players and our coach plenty of times.

...and a few other things on the above:

* Winning games counts for 75% of the equation? You totally pulled that number out of your arse!

* If we are Top 1 or 2 then we are still lower odds than 50-50 to win the comp where there are 16 teams. Thats basic maths.

* If we don't lift we wont win a GF? Goes without saying.

* Its not just about winning, its about how you win? I believe I said as much in my post on for and against. The lowest placed premier with respect to for and against was 5th (Tigers in 2005). Between 19-21 the best we have managed is 5th. As I said in that post, we need to lift if we want to be a chance.

So all in all, I'm not really sure what you are blowing up about.
 

Poupou Escobar

Post Whore
Messages
92,258
The biggest take away is that losing games or winning them unconvincingly at any stage including March, April and May(the early part of the season) really does make a difference on your chances to be Premiers after all.
No. You are assuming a causal relationship where none exists. It's like saying heart disease makes you obese.

In fact the thing that increases your chances of winning a premiership (having a superior squad) is the same thing that causes you to win games by big margins, on average. So the points differential is an indicator, not the causal factor.
 

TheRam

Coach
Messages
13,911
Why are you yelling at me about the importance of for and against? I analysed the last 20 years worth of data and arrived at the same conclusion earlier in this thread.

I also analysed data that indicates losing early in the season doesn't destroy a team's chance of going deep in the finals.

Your fallback when you don't understand cause and effect or analysis of data is to label it as an 'excuse'. I think thats incredibly narrow minded. I prefer to try and understand why. Just becuase I do that it doesn't mean that I am excusing anything. I've been critical of the club, our players and our coach plenty of times.

...and a few other things on the above:

* Winning games counts for 75% of the equation? You totally pulled that number out of your arse!

* If we are Top 1 or 2 then we are still lower odds than 50-50 to win the comp where there are 16 teams. Thats basic maths.

* If we don't lift we wont win a GF? Goes without saying.

* Its not just about winning, its about how you win? I believe I said as much in my post on for and against. The lowest placed premier with respect to for and against was 5th (Tigers in 2005). Between 19-21 the best we have managed is 5th. As I said in that post, we need to lift if we want to be a chance.

So all in all, I'm not really sure what you are blowing up about.

Sorry mate but my point is that you and a few others here keep telling the rest of us that we are going well and playing fine and BA has his faults but overall he has done a good job to get us here and be contenders and just to enjoy the wins we get and the season overall, because that's all we as supporters can hope for from this club.

Well sure in a nutshell der we all get that to a point. The problem is we as fans of a club as big, rich and resourceful as this one expect premierships not wooden spoons to fill our cabinet. If every other pion club in this State can win a premiership in the time we haven't, then we should at least have won two in that same time.

Our team the last few seasons has basically had the majority of the same players, play with no attacking direction and confusion in defense way to often when the pressure is on. We are sick of it and we just never seem to get it right even though the players are very talented individually.

Then you and a few others just keep making excuses and tell us to chill and that it is only a game and doesn't have a baring to the result at the end of the year. Well it does and the 'for and against' shows that it does as you also have pointed out. So it does matter HOW we play not just the wins that will most probably determine how we fare at the end of the season.

So we do have a legitimate reason for blowing up at losses or even wins that we played like crap in patches. Where as you guys just fob us off as angry and never pleased merkins that never seem grateful and or enjoy the teams wins.

But what's closer to the truth is we do enjoy the games and the wins, especially the ones that are against the better teams, but years of eventual and at times spectacular failure has taught us that we need to be more consistent and ruthless in our game or we will implode once again at the pointy end of the season and so our posts generally reflect that on this forum.

But then you apologist step in and tell us to chill and who knows what the future holds and to calm down. This of course to a person that is over the excuses and is very frustrated over years, no decades of hearing them. Well forgive me but it ends up sounding very much like when pollies dribble on with positive spin and lofty arrogance, patronisingly dismissing our legitimate frustration and anger at our clubs never ending finals failings.

Especially when you tweak your comments and adjust them to suit your argument. Lets not forget what you and your mates have been saying forever on these forums. You have always been implying and out right telling us that losing or how we play in these early rounds doesn't really have a major baring on what happens at the end of the season and others like me have always maintained the opposite view. You can spin it any other way you like, but that is what you have either said or 'liked' when others have made posts with that sentiment or opinion.

End of.

P.S. I am not yelling at you or even angry at all. I may sound like that but honestly I am not. This is just a footy forum and people banter with passion and zeal about sh*t. But not angry at you or anyone else ever. I like most of you guys and I enjoy the banter. I do get frustrated sure though and that is what you are seeing here. But anger? Hell no. I have to much fun on here to get angry. I'm just very loud at times but not angry, just forthright. I can even find Giffy agreeable and even amusing sometimes. I think the only guy I can remember that seemed to be a bit off, weird and a little worrisome was Diablo, but he seems to have disappeared, so most others just seem to have differing opinions that we debate about and sometimes very passionately.

Anyway I hope I haven't offended you mate and all is good and remember, Go Parra!
 

Gary Gutful

Post Whore
Messages
53,156
Sorry mate but my point is that you and a few others here keep telling the rest of us that we are going well and playing fine and BA has his faults but overall he has done a good job to get us here and be contenders and just to enjoy the wins we get and the season overall, because that's all we as supporters can hope for from this club.

Well sure in a nutshell der we all get that to a point. The problem is we as fans of a club as big, rich and resourceful as this one expect premierships not wooden spoons to fill our cabinet. If every other pion club in this State can win a premiership in the time we haven't, then we should at least have won two in that same time.

Our team the last few seasons has basically had the majority of the same players, play with no attacking direction and confusion in defense way to often when the pressure is on. We are sick of it and we just never seem to get it right even though the players are very talented individually.

Then you and a few others just keep making excuses and tell us to chill and that it is only a game and doesn't have a baring to the result at the end of the year. Well it does and the 'for and against' shows that it does as you also have pointed out. So it does matter HOW we play not just the wins that will most probably determine how we fare at the end of the season.

So we do have a legitimate reason for blowing up at losses or even wins that we played like crap in patches. Where as you guys just fob us off as angry and never pleased merkins that never seem grateful and or enjoy the teams wins.

But what's closer to the truth is we do enjoy the games and the wins, especially the ones that are against the better teams, but years of eventual and at times spectacular failure has taught us that we need to be more consistent and ruthless in our game or we will implode once again at the pointy end of the season and so our posts generally reflect that on this forum.

But then you apologist step in and tell us to chill and who knows what the future holds and to calm down. This of course to a person that is over the excuses and is very frustrated over years, no decades of hearing them. Well forgive me but it ends up sounding very much like when pollies dribble on with positive spin and lofty arrogance, patronisingly dismissing our legitimate frustration and anger at our clubs never ending finals failings.

Especially when you tweak your comments and adjust them to suit your argument. Lets not forget what you and your mates have been saying forever on these forums. You have always been implying and out right telling us that losing or how we play in these early rounds doesn't really have a major baring on what happens at the end of the season and others like me have always maintained the opposite view. You can spin it any other way you like, but that is what you have either said or 'liked' when others have made posts with that sentiment or opinion.

End of.

P.S. I am not yelling at you or even angry at all. I may sound like that but honestly I am not. This is just a footy forum and people banter with passion and zeal about sh*t. But not angry at you or anyone else ever. I like most of you guys and I enjoy the banter. I do get frustrated sure though and that is what you are seeing here. But anger? Hell no. I have to much fun on here to get angry. I'm just very loud at times but not angry, just forthright. I can even find Giffy agreeable and even amusing sometimes. I think the only guy I can remember that seemed to be a bit off, weird and a little worrisome was Diablo, but he seems to have disappeared, so most others just seem to have differing opinions that we debate about and sometimes very passionately.

Anyway I hope I haven't offended you mate and all is good and remember, Go Parra!
I know it seems like excuses, but it isn't. I jump in and comment when I think a statement is inaccurate or simplistic. All I'm doing in that moment is highlighting a different way of looking at it. Often, I feel like people look for scapegoats or simple reasons that aren't there. There is also a lot of "I told youse" from people in hindsight that dont hold water.

Sorry if it comes across as patronising. Its not the intention.

I still maintain that performances in the early rounds don't always determine the outcome at the end of the year. I know that to be true because I looked at the data.
 

TheRam

Coach
Messages
13,911
No. You are assuming a causal relationship where none exists. It's like saying heart disease makes you obese.

In fact the thing that increases your chances of winning a premiership (having a superior squad) is the same thing that causes you to win games by big margins, on average. So the points differential is an indicator, not the causal factor.

This is what you don't get. I think that we have had a superior squad over the decades and in the last couple of seasons too that should have done much better then they did or have. It's easy to forget just how good some of our teams were and the individuals in them or gloss over them because we didn't ultimately win the GF. The problem I believe when the team as individuals was good enough was the coach or coaching, including Brian Smith and his metal fu*kup personality games. Currently though this coach is the problem not the squad. They are more then capable and talented to win the big one.

If this group of players don't win it, we will look back on them in years to come and view them as lesser then they really were, because they couldn't and didn't win it, but the reality is, just like in previous eras of this club, individually they are very, very good to great players that need a quality coach that can bring out the mental and physical cohesion that a team needs offensively and defensively to challenge and win the premiership. He has demonstrated thus far that he isn't the man for the job. Until I and others see that cohesion we will always have reservations about our chances and criticism will not be short in coming forward.

The coach has to prove us wrong, whereas we're just commenting on the outcome of his work with...no excuses!
 

Gary Gutful

Post Whore
Messages
53,156
This is what you don't get. I think that we have had a superior squad over the decades and in the last couple of seasons too that should have done much better then they did or have. It's easy to forget just how good some of our teams were and the individuals in them or gloss over them because we didn't ultimately win the GF. The problem I believe when the team as individuals was good enough was the coach or coaching, including Brian Smith and his metal fu*kup personality games. Currently though this coach is the problem not the squad. They are more then capable and talented to win the big one.

If this group of players don't win it, we will look back on them in years to come and view them as lesser then they really were, because they couldn't and didn't win it, but the reality is, just like in previous eras of this club, individually they are very, very good to great players that need a quality coach that can bring out the mental and physical cohesion that a team needs offensively and defensively to challenge and win the premiership. He has demonstrated thus far that he isn't the man for the job. Until I and others see that cohesion we will always have reservations about our chances and criticism will not be short in coming forward.

The coach has to prove us wrong, whereas we're just commenting on the outcome of his work with...no excuses!
I reckon people are underestimating how good the Roosters, Storm, Panthers and rabbits have been over the years.

When I looked back over the last 20 years I reckon the biggest finals f**k ups were 2001 and 2005. 2018 was also shit for different reasons.

2009 was easily the biggest overachievement and probably second when considering all clubs (the greatest overachievement goes to the 2005 Tigers).

In other years, you only have to look at our win-loss record and for and against to see that we have largely finished where people expected. Would have been great to go on a Tigers style run again in one of those years but it hasn’t happened.

We need to improve in the regular season. Put the shit teams away by big margins and play like we do against the Storm when we play the top teams. Souths and Manly seem to be bogey teams. We need to fix that as well.

Again the above isn’t ‘excuses’. Just some perspective.
 

Poupou Escobar

Post Whore
Messages
92,258
This is what you don't get. I think that we have had a superior squad over the decades and in the last couple of seasons too that should have done much better then they did or have. It's easy to forget just how good some of our teams were and the individuals in them or gloss over them because we didn't ultimately win the GF. The problem I believe when the team as individuals was good enough was the coach or coaching, including Brian Smith and his metal fu*kup personality games. Currently though this coach is the problem not the squad. They are more then capable and talented to win the big one.

If this group of players don't win it, we will look back on them in years to come and view them as lesser then they really were, because they couldn't and didn't win it, but the reality is, just like in previous eras of this club, individually they are very, very good to great players that need a quality coach that can bring out the mental and physical cohesion that a team needs offensively and defensively to challenge and win the premiership. He has demonstrated thus far that he isn't the man for the job. Until I and others see that cohesion we will always have reservations about our chances and criticism will not be short in coming forward.

The coach has to prove us wrong, whereas we're just commenting on the outcome of his work with...no excuses!
No, you're a typical fan overrating your players. Even Brian Smith never had the best squad (or close to it). He was just a master at getting them to overachieve. Brad Arthur isn't, but he is as good a coach as a club of our stature will get. He is up there with premiership winners like Cleary and Maguire.
 

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