Expansion, Manly and the Coasts

[adamkungl]

If the current Bears bid is accepted then it'll be great for the old fans of the Bears and it'll be great for fans on the Central Coast. But I have no doubt that it will set off a chain of consequences that will lead to the death or relocation of one or more Sydney teams, and that Manly, surrounded in their northern beaches enclave, will be one of the most affected.

This whole thread has been about considering one possible way this situation could be molded by the Commission such that we end up with both the Bears and the Sea Eagles having long healthy futures as an integral part of the competition. There are other more likely scenarios for sure, but the most likely of those are either that the Bears are brought in and end up causing mortal damage to Manly like St George-Illawarra are doing to Cronulla, or that the Bears are left on the outside. I think either of those outcomes would actually be worse for the game in the long term than an outcome that guarantees the survival of both.

Regardless, I think we can all agree that the futures of Manly, the Bears and a team based on the Central Coast are inexorably intertwined.

Leigh.

I disagree with this.

Cronulla's problems are (in my opinion) irrelevant to St George. Yes they are in a small area - however it is an area that has in the recent past (late 90s) been home to a thriving, passionate support base. Cronulla's problems are due to previous management ineptitude and a series of on-field failures starting from the Chris Anderson days, throw in some player image issues and plain bad luck at times. Their fortunes seem to be turning around, they've signed a good roster and I believe on field success will bring the crowds back to Cronulla, especially if the development is a success. If there was no team in Illawarra, I think Cronulla's fortunes would be very much the same.

Similarly, I don't think the Bears would have much of an effect on Manly. Manly have always thrived on being enclosed, isolated, hated. They have made minimal effort to expand into the now Bears-free area around them and that North shore area has made minimal effort to support Manly. The Bears return would be irrelevant, other than reigniting a great rivalry. Manly issues are and always will be in their own hands. With a rubbish stadium, mediocre crowds and limited finances Manly still manage to be extremely successful onfield. They won't move.

 

[Perth Red]

Manly and Cronulla are in the same boat, just that Manly has had a rich backer willing to keep their head above water. Both are in small popualtion areas with ltd appeal to that population. As crowds have increased, club budgets have significantly increased and the need for the corporate $ has become much greater they have been left behind. If the game had stayed the same size as it was in the 80's they would be fine, as it moves forward and $20mill budgets become the norm they are going to struggle big time to keep pace. Good management may save them or in Cronullas case the development income but they are always going to struggle to attract enough corporate support and fans through the gate to not be on the brink. Both clubs have had succesful years but struggled to top 15K fans in the past. Not sure if Manly being on the SS coast would help or not but it is not hard to see what the future has in store unless they can change some things significantly.

 

[Loudstrat]

Adelaide Oval is a redevelopment of an existing stadium. You do know the difference between a new car and an old car with an overhaul. right?

I ask that question because you clearly do not know the difference between calling for architects and actually building something that is proposed to be started in 5 years time. If Europe goes the way everyone is predicting, global recession is the BEST case scenario - greatly affecting China - and therefore WA. And dont look federally - with more pressing infrastructure needs like completion of the Pacific and Hume Highway duplications and upgrades of ports and hospitals nationwide.

 

[Loudstrat]

Manly and Cronulla are in the same boat, just that Manly has had a rich backer willing to keep their head above water. Both are in small popualtion areas with ltd appeal to that population......

That scenario applies to Perth too. How will they survive if Cronulla and Manly fold?

 

[Perth Red]

Adelaide Oval is a redevelopment of an existing stadium. You do know the difference between a new car and an old car with an overhaul. right?

I ask that question because you clearly do not know the difference between calling for architects and actually building something that is proposed to be started in 5 years time. If Europe goes the way everyone is predicting, global recession is the BEST case scenario - greatly affecting China - and therefore WA. And dont look federally - with more pressing infrastructure needs like completion of the Pacific and Hume Highway duplications and upgrades of ports and hospitals nationwide.

a classic loudy backtrack! :lol:

 

[Perth Red]

That scenario applies to Perth too. How will they survive if Cronulla and Manly fold?

The sustainability of a team in perth will be based on three things:
1. How valuable is it to have a national comp (ie value to NRL and club sponsors to be in a new wealthy market of 2million people)
2. How much corporate support can the Reds attract and maintain
3. How valuable is the WA market to media deals

These criteria will also apply to all teams and number 2 will be the key sustainability factor in years to come for everyone imo.

We will avg 15K+ crowds and will have a decent stadium deal that means we do ok from game day takings, that is not a worry.

 

[Goddo]

^ thats all a Perth team needs to show really. A few sponsors, good stadium deal, crowd averages around 14-15k. TV and NRL sponsors does the rest.

 

[Bro Bear]

The sustainability of a team in perth will be based on three things:
1. How valuable is it to have a national comp (ie value to NRL and club sponsors to be in a new wealthy market of 2million people)
2. How much corporate support can the Reds attract and maintain
3. How valuable is the WA market to media deals

These criteria will also apply to all teams and number 2 will be the key sustainability factor in years to come for everyone imo.

We will avg 15K+ crowds and will have a decent stadium deal that means we do ok from game day takings, that is not a worry.

Yes and all QLD and NSW teams have juniors capable of performing to the NRL standard. How long will it take WA to produce quality players. VIC still hasn't and therefore two more regions will have to depend on NSW, QLD and NZ juniors. If WA does not have a quality team I doubt they will average 15K to the games.

 

[Perth Red]

Yes and all QLD and NSW teams have juniors capable of performing to the NRL standard. How long will it take WA to produce quality players. VIC still hasn't and therefore two more regions will have to depend on NSW, QLD and NZ juniors. If WA does not have a quality team I doubt they will average 15K to the games.

True, however we have already produced NRL grade players with very little investment or game exposure, WA and Vic are very different sportiing environments. Not saying that the Reds will be full of local players anytime soon after inception but we have some excellent jnr programmes running now and with more exposure,a good career pathway and more funding then we will produce our own much much quicker than the Storm have managed. As an example RU jnr's went from sub 2000 to over 5000 in 4 years when the Force came into S15. Hopefully we will see even bigger increases in RL jnr's in WA if done right.

Add into that mix all the players that are decent players but no longer playing in the NRL and we should be able to put together a competitive team as long as the club has good coaches, facilities and funding. NZ and the PI's are still a massive untapped nursery there for the picking if the NZRL can get proper funding and development in place.

 

[firechild]

If WA does not have a quality team I doubt they will average 15K to the games.

In 1995 WA averaged crowds of 13,300. Since then the population has grown and I would suggest there are more people in WA interested in RL. Like all clubs, the attendances will be significantly affected by performance so I don't know why that is something that needs to be specifically mentioned with the Reds.

 

[Perth Red]

I'd be disappointed if we didn't avg a min of 15k in a bad year. People don't realise how many expat RL fans there are in Perth, and that is before we set about converting the WA unwashed to our great game! I know heaps of RL fans who follow the Force purely becuase it is the closest to RL available and they refuse to back AFL.

 

[Loudstrat]

In other words, Perth will have nothing that Cronulla and Manly dont have.

 

[Perth Red]

apart from fans, decent stadium, value and money?

 

[Loudstrat]

Fans will be roughly the same. Decent stadium - pfft. Value - in terms of what? Money? What money?

How does a decent stadium make a team more likely to succeed? The premiers come from a poor stadium - the mob they beat aint much better. In fact, including Melbourne, no premier in the last 5 seasons had what you would call a decent stadium.

Value - I take it you mean your fabled TV deal. What's different now in that regard than when Perth were last in?

 

[Quidgybo]

What's different now in that regard than when Perth were last in?

No war tearing the game apart, turning off fans and bringing even established heartland teams to their knees?

Leigh

 

[Loudstrat]

I doubt the war affected the game in Perth! It certainly wasnt the war that killed them off!

 

[Perth Red]

I doubt the war affected the game in Perth! It certainly wasnt the war that killed them off!

That's because your an ignorant fart with no frickin idea of the world outside NSW!

 

[Loudstrat]

You do remember that News Ltd withdrew funding at a board mettering, and the very next thing they did was close the club down, as they had no other source of funding!

Claiming they suffered lack of crowds due to the war is clearly stupid. Which is why you did it I suppose! :lol:

 

[Loudstrat]

No war tearing the game apart, turning off fans and bringing even established heartland teams to their knees?

Leigh

The war which saw a phenomenal increase is money coming into the game over TV rights? You know, TV rights - the only thing that PR can point to that makes Perth different to Cronulla?

 

[Quidgybo]

The war which saw a phenomenal increase is money coming into the game over TV rights? You know, TV rights - the only thing that PR can point to that makes Perth different to Cronulla?

Yes the war, which sent player payments through the roof and left most clubs tettering on the edge as soon as the money started getting pulled back. It's no accident that the clubs didn't start falling over until *after* peace had been declared.

Leigh.