I don't like the Central Queensland idea at all. We already have one very disbursed population base for a team in the Cowboys, and Central Queensland would be even worse in this regard. The Cowboys work because Townsville is big enough (180,000) to act as a base for the team. The biggest centres Central Queensland would have to pick from would be Mackay and Rockhampton, both around 80,000. They are separated by about the same distance as Townsville and Cairns, two much bigger cities.
Extra teams in Queensland will have to be based in the South East. The Sunshine Coast (310,000), and the Toowoomba-Ipswich-Logan corridor (600-odd thousand combined) are the only two areas with a big enough population base outside of Brisbane itself.
For the record, the population of the Sutherland shire is 210,000 and the combined population of the Manly and Warringah council areas is about 180,000. Some other Sydney teams (council area populations, realising that some teams draw from surrounding areas): Canterbury-Bankstown (Bankstown, Canterbury): 330,000; St. George (Rockdale, Kogarah, Hurstville): 240,000 (530,000 when combined with the Illawarra); Souths (Marrickville, Botany Bay): 120,000; Roosters (Randwick, Waverly, Woollahra, City): 430,000; Balmain (Leichhardt, Ashfield, Canada Bay, Burwood): 205,000; Wests (Camden, Liverpool, Campbelltown): 390,000 (combined Wests Tigers: 595,000); Parramatta (Parramatta, Holroyd, Fairfield): 460,000; Penrith: 185,000. Not included were Strathfield (35,000) and Aubrun (75,000) council areas, which would either be Parramatta or Canterbury territory (if someone could clue me in?), and Blacktown (300,000), which would be split between Penrith and Parramatta I imagine, and if it isn't, it should be (no wonder the AFL have targetted the area as a base).
Easy to see why Souths pinched Randwick from the Roosters, why the Roosters decided to claim the City, why Wests moved from Ashfield to Lidcombe and ultimately Campbelltown, why Balmain were in trouble (I've included Wests original district in the Balmain total), and why Newtown folded.
For mine, the areas where ultimately we should see teams based are:
- Central Coast
- Perth
- Toowoomba-Ipswich-Logan
- Sunshine Coast
- Wellington
- Christchurch
- Adelaide
- possibly another team in Brisbane City
Central Queensland for mine would only be viable if one of the coastal cities experiences a massive boom. The tyranny of distance will be too much otherwise.
I think ultimately we can sustain a 20-team competition. To achieve that and cover all the abses mentioned will require either more mergers in Sydney, or (preferably) the relocation of Sydney teams with the full, long-term support of the league.