This is a very good post. The only part I disagree with is RU being as dominant as RL. Fumbleball and soccer have made huge inroads in the GPS schools that are the lifeblood for RU. Reds get as few as 10k or less at Lang Park and no one watches them on TV.Its an interesting one re Broncos attendance. whilst no other rugby (sic) club comes close it is also very unique scenario where you have a city of 2.5million people with one rugby club where either code of Rugby is the dominant sport. Pretty much every city in Europe football is the dominant code and the only other major cities Rl is dominant in have more than one club.
I cant really think of another one that comes anywhere close. If the answer is to dilute that unique scenario into 2, 3 or 4 clubs is an interesting test for the popularity of RL in Brisbane and how many people are genuinely crying out for an alternative club to follow there, I dont see a lot of public generated demand.
For a new club to generate an 18,000 avg attendance they will need a 25,000 capacity stadium at least (sold out games making up for the crap drawing games). You also get the sense we will be saddled with Broncos thurs night, Brisbane2 Friday night every week which isn't going to help their attendance growth.
Looking at the map you can get a 40min train from Logan to South Brisbane station then a 10min walk to the ground. I get that isnt going to be popular for weeknight games that dont finish till after 10pm! one of the blights of being so beholden to TV revenue.
Whats the chances of Qlnd Govt building a 25k stadium in Logan area?
For Redcliffe you can get Northgate to Milton in just less than 40min.
I think the reality is wherever they play most people are going to have to travel 30-40min or you are going to end up with Cronulla or Manly sized crowds if you become too suburban in mentality.
I think if the NRL were to add Brisbane 2 and Perth, with Bris 2 getting 18k and Perth getting 12k, then the game would be in a good place.
Any expansion into Brisbane and Perth must be based on the condition that both clubs break even from crowds that they're likely to attract. I'd go as far as to put it in writing that stadium rental is set at a rate that ensures Perth breaks even from 10k and Bris 2 from 15k. If the ARLC can get the QLD and WA Govs to agree to that then both teams will benefit the game. There is potential for the game to grow quite a bit in Perth if a team there is given support.
I like the idea of Bris 2 and, potentially Bris 3 if the maths add up, to be regionally based so they have a point of difference to the Broncos. If they were to have just 2 teams then one based at Nathan in the south-east, provided QEII Stadium is turned into a 35k seat boutique stadium, would produce a genuine rivalry and gives people from both sides of the city a chance to attend games.
The bus way is one lane each way, so at peak hour when people are heading home it can take ages to get from Mater Hill Station to the CBD as there are heaps of buses and lots of commuters.