"It’s very realistic to say that we’ll have a second team in Brisbane in 2023": V'landys

[The Great Dane]

Soccer licences have more value as they can be onsold to rich European clubs just like players can.

How's that worked out for the Mariners and Jets whom have both been trying to sell their clubs for over a year now?!

Most European clubs have wised up to the fact that owning "development" clubs in most competitions is a massive money pit. Only the oil barrens with more money than sense are interested in leagues like the A-league anymore, and even they aren't interested in buying old clubs if they can avoid it. Most old clubs come with too much baggage.

 

[The Great Dane]

If News Ltd had stood up for ALL of it's clubs in late 1997, the game would be in a far better position today.

Imagine News Ltd saying "Bottom line, we want all Superleague clubs - including Perth Reds, Adelaide Rams, and Hunter Mariners (rebranded & moved to Melbourne) guaranteed licenses in the NRL".

Initially they tried to do that, but it always lead to a breakdown in discussions with the ARL.

Once Rupert was filled in on just how much money he was losing, and what a shitshow it was, he wanted SL wrapped up as quickly as possible. That necessitated News cutting ties with all the teams that they deemed would require high investment, take a long time to produce a return, or wouldn't produce a large return. That meant that News dropped every SL club as quickly as possible, except for the two clubs they saw as having the best commercial potential; Brisbane and Melbourne.

The ARL were stupid as well. If they could have put the ego and tribalism away for half a second they would have seen the big picture and realised it was a opportunity to set the game up for the foreseeable future, and required that News bankrolled clubs in at least Perth and Adelaide on top of Melbourne as part of any reunification deals.
Unfortunately they were to busy trying to punish the SL clubs, and save as many broke Sydney clubs as possible, at the expense of all else.

So as with everything to do with the SL war it was a complicated mess, and there were no good guys.

 

[flippikat]

So as with everything to do with the SL war it was a complicated mess, and there were no good guys.

Well yeah, same old short-term thinking that constantly knee-caps the game.

Its that kinda attitude that keeps RL saving money in the short term, instead of investing in projects that would deliver solid long-term returns.

 

[Perth Red]

I wonder if the clubs have got their independent report yet and what it says? Surprised we haven't had any leaks, very unlike the NRL lol

 

[Perth Red]

Pondering on why the push for a 17th club when there seems little chance of it generating any significant direct revenue for the NRL and the decade of procrastination we have had on any decision I wonder if Vlandys and co are concerned some clubs might not be around long given the impact of covid on revenue of pokie dens? The biggest risk for NRL is that without the cash to bail clubs out anymore if they lose one they cant fulfill their media contracts for 8 games a week. Having a spare team there to fill the gap may be a risk mitigation strategy?

 

[bluefox68]

Initially they tried to do that, but it always lead to a breakdown in discussions with the ARL.

Once Rupert was filled in on just how much money he was losing, and what a shitshow it was, he wanted SL wrapped up as quickly as possible. That necessitated News cutting ties with all the teams that they deemed would require high investment, take a long time to produce a return, or wouldn't produce a large return. That meant that News dropped every SL club as quickly as possible, except for the two clubs they saw as having the best commercial potential; Brisbane and Melbourne.

The ARL were stupid as well. If they could have put the ego and tribalism away for half a second they would have seen the big picture and realised it was a opportunity to set the game up for the foreseeable future, and required that News bankrolled clubs in at least Perth and Adelaide on top of Melbourne as part of any reunification deals.
Unfortunately they were to busy trying to punish the SL clubs, and save as many broke Sydney clubs as possible, at the expense of all else.

So as with everything to do with the SL war it was a complicated mess, and there were no good guys.

This is absolutely spot on!

Great summary.

 

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

Pondering on why the push for a 17th club when there seems little chance of it generating any significant direct revenue for the NRL and the decade of procrastination we have had on any decision I wonder if Vlandys and co are concerned some clubs might not be around long given the impact of covid on revenue of pokie dens? The biggest risk for NRL is that without the cash to bail clubs out anymore if they lose one they cant fulfill their media contracts for 8 games a week. Having a spare team there to fill the gap may be a risk mitigation strategy?

If a Sydney club is unfortunate enough to fall on hard times over the next few years and is forced to fold then Brisbane 2 will be there to keep it a 16 team competition. This leaves room available for expansion into Perth and NZ2. I cannot see the competition going to 20 teams within the next 15 or 20 years.

 

[flippikat]

If a Sydney club is unfortunate enough to fall on hard times over the next few years and is forced to fold then Brisbane 2 will be there to keep it a 16 team competition. This leaves room available for expansion into Perth and NZ2. I cannot see the competition going to 20 teams within the next 15 or 20 years.

Well, if that happens (big if) an NRL administration with guts would say to a failing Sydney club "ok, if you really wanna stay in the top tier then move to NZ or Perth".

Then it becomes dependent on what that club chooses.

If they say no then they drop out and expansion teams in Perth + NZ 2 become teams 17 & 18.

If they say yes to relocation to Perth or NZ, then we stay at 17 teams and the choice not taken becomes the next expansion to take us to 18.

 

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

Well, if that happens (big if) an NRL administration with guts would say to a failing Sydney club "ok, if you really wanna stay in the top tier then move to NZ or Perth".

Then it becomes dependent on what that club chooses.

If they say no then they drop out and expansion teams in Perth + NZ 2 become teams 17 & 18.

If they say yes to relocation to Perth or NZ, then we stay at 17 teams and the choice not taken becomes the next expansion to take us to 18.

That would be a great way of expanding and limiting the damage of losing a club.

 

[Perth Red]

Problem is if a club fails in sydeny how do you expect them To be succesfull in perth or nz which will be harder markets?

 

[The Great Dane]

Problem is if a club fails in sydeny how do you expect them To be succesfull in perth or nz which will be harder markets?

Without big investment from somewhere they almost certainly wouldn't be successful.

Then again I guess the idea would be that the NRL would help them if they relocated, but who knows how far that help would actually go.

 

[flippikat]

Without big investment from somewhere they almost certainly wouldn't be successful.

Then again I guess the idea would be that the NRL would help them if they relocated, but who knows how far that help would actually go.

That's a good point. To be honest, the history of the NRL supporting relocation is not exactly confidence-inspiring. They didn't save Norths, and that was just a move "up the road" to Gosford.

 

[mongoose]

Pondering on why the push for a 17th club when there seems little chance of it generating any significant direct revenue for the NRL and the decade of procrastination we have had on any decision I wonder if Vlandys and co are concerned some clubs might not be around long given the impact of covid on revenue of pokie dens? The biggest risk for NRL is that without the cash to bail clubs out anymore if they lose one they cant fulfill their media contracts for 8 games a week. Having a spare team there to fill the gap may be a risk mitigation strategy?

Didn't the NRL just bail the Sharks out? (again)

I think V'landys just wants more League played in Brisbane, not sure there is any deeper strategy than that. Seems like Dolphins tick all the right boxes for them, mainly cause they got money and assets and are less likely to go under in the next 5-10 years.

 

[Perth Red]

Didn't the NRL just bail the Sharks out? (again)

I think V'landys just wants more League played in Brisbane, not sure there is any deeper strategy than that. Seems like Dolphins tick all the right boxes for them, mainly cause they got money and assets and are less likely to go under in the next 5-10 years.

Not financially, the NRL were asking them to justify their license given the on and off field dramas. Vlandys stepped in and told Greenberg to back off them.

NRL are super conservative so they will def go with the safest option, even if its not necessarily the best for the game long term. Doubt Vlandys really cares about Brisbane tbh. More likely it is either a safeguard for someone falling over or he thinks he needs it as a sweetener for the FTA deal to come, probably a bit of both.

 

[Perth Red]

That's a good point. To be honest, the history of the NRL supporting relocation is not exactly confidence-inspiring. They didn't save Norths, and that was just a move "up the road" to Gosford.

NRl doesn't have the spare money to support anything at the moment. All the reserves are gone, the club bail out fund is gone, costs have been slashed and we dont know the value of the media deal anymore.

 

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

It would be good to see the Firehawks and Dolphins merge to become a super club stretching from Moreton Bay Region down to Redlands, incorporating Eastern suburbs of Brisbane and Logan.

East Coast Dolphins. Red, gold and black. Base them out of Coorparoo.

 

[flippikat]

It would be good to see the Firehawks and Dolphins merge to become a super club stretching from Moreton Bay Region down to Redlands, incorporating Eastern suburbs of Brisbane and Logan.

East Coast Dolphins. Red, gold and black. Base them out of Coorparoo.

That could be a dream or (more likely) a nightmare.

Sure the combined wealth of Brisbane Easts & Redcliffe would be formidable, BUT the internal politics of a joint venture can absolutely neuter a combined club - just look at our game's track record...

 

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

That could be a dream or (more likely) a nightmare.

Sure the combined wealth of Brisbane Easts & Redcliffe would be formidable, BUT the internal politics of a joint venture can absolutely neuter a combined club - just look at our game's track record...

Firehawks and Dolphins would be a good addition. I'd go with Firehawks in 2023 due to their location and catchment in eastern suburbs and Logan through the Easts Tigers, who've been around since 1930s. Add Dolphins in 10 years time, provided a 25k stadium is built for them in Moreton Bay. Their brand is strong and dates back to the 1940s.

 

[flippikat]

Firehawks and Dolphins would be a good addition. I'd go with Firehawks in 2023 due to their location and catchment in eastern suburbs and Logan through the Easts Tigers, who've been around since 1930s. Add Dolphins in 10 years time, provided a 25k stadium is built for them in Moreton Bay. Their brand is strong and dates back to the 1940s.

On the information that's public, I'd have to agree - the real mystery is that the Jets bid is so hard to guage. Everything seems to be rather opaque with them

It *could* be that they have better resources, more money, and a far better business case then either or BOTH of their competitors, but their cards are so close to their chest that we just don't know.

 

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

On the information that's public, I'd have to agree - the real mystery is that the Jets bid is so hard to guage. Everything seems to be rather opaque with them

It *could* be that they have better resources, more money, and a far better business case then either or BOTH of their competitors, but their cards are so close to their chest that we just don't know.

Jets will probably cannibalise the Broncos more than Dolphins. Ipswich has plenty of Broncos fans.

Firehawks will probably cannibalise Broncos and Titans, as Logan has Broncos fans in most of its suburbs and Titans fans in the southern that became part or Logan in 2007. I see a lot of Cowboys fans in Logan. Whenever NRL merchandise is sold in shops of Logan's northern suburbs the two hottest selling teams are Broncos and Cowboys.

Dolphins could be the safe bet for the Broncos and Titans, but they would be more successful playing their games in Moreton Bay, which they cannot do because there's no suitable stadium in the region.