Jono's sim predicts 2012 NRL season

[Jono078]

ok, I know us knights fans are optimistic about this season, some more so than others, but there's no way we can go from 8-2 to 9-1 in one week lol

Hmm wtf happened there, I thought something looked off..

Let me check.

EDIT: Simple error, forgot to add a game played for Knights, fixed now.

 

[Jono078]

Round 15
St George Illawarra Dragons 16 20 Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs
Cronulla Sharks 14 28 New Zealand Warriors
Manly Sea Eagles 18 20 Melbourne Storm
Parramatta Eels 12 22 South Sydney Rabbitohs
North Qld Cowboys 18 19 Brisbane Broncos
Gold Coast Titans 20 16 Penrith Panthers
Wests Tigers 32 16 Sydney Roosters

Team Played Won Draw Loss For Agn Diff Pts
1st Knights 13 11 2 336 222 114 26
2nd Storm 14 12 2 324 250 74 26
3rd Wests Tigers 14 9 5 363 277 86 20
4th Warriors 15 10 5 331 264 67 20
5th Cowboys 14 9 5 306 266 40 20
6th Bulldogs 14 8 6 322 280 42 18
7th Rabbitohs 13 6 1 6 269 249 20 17
8th Panthers 14 7 7 286 306 -20 16
9th Eels 13 5 1 7 237 272 -35 15
10th Dragons 14 6 8 273 282 -9 14
11th Sea Eagles 14 6 8 247 273 -26 14
12th Broncos 14 5 9 244 311 -67 12
13th Raiders 13 4 9 227 304 -77 12
14th Roosters 14 4 10 278 321 -43 10
15th Sharks 15 3 2 10 244 334 -90 8
16th Titans 14 2 12 236 312 -76 6

 

[Jono078]

Round 16
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs 28 12 Melbourne Storm
St George Illawarra Dragons 20 22 Gold Coast Titans
Newcastle Knights 22 26 Wests Tigers
Brisbane Broncos 30 10 South Sydney Rabbitohs
North Qld Cowboys 25 18 Canberra Raiders
Sydney Roosters 18 20 Manly Sea Eagles
Penrith Panthers 22 12 Parramatta Eels

Team Played Won Draw Loss For Agn Diff Pts
1st Knights 14 11 3 358 248 110 26
2nd Storm 15 12 3 336 278 58 26
3rd Wests Tigers 15 10 5 389 299 90 22
4th Warriors 15 10 5 331 264 67 22
5th Cowboys 15 10 5 331 284 47 22
6th Bulldogs 15 9 6 350 292 58 20
7th Panthers 15 8 7 308 318 -10 18
8th Rabbitohs 14 6 1 7 279 279 0 17
9th Sea Eagles 15 7 8 267 291 -24 16
10th Eels 14 5 1 8 249 294 -45 15
11th Dragons 15 6 9 293 304 -11 14
12th Broncos 15 6 9 274 321 -47 14
13th Raiders 14 4 10 245 329 -84 12
14th Roosters 15 4 11 296 341 -45 10
15th Sharks 15 3 2 10 244 334 -90 10
16th Titans 15 3 12 258 332 -74 8

That'll do for now, I might simulate some more later tonight, if not tomorrow afternoon some time.

 

[Raider_69]

The coaching settings are clearly off and contributing too much to results. Ill buy a knights hat and eat it, if they have only lost 1 game by round 16.

This simulation is interesting but very biased.

 

[Jono078]

Well they've lost 3 by round 16.

Funny no one told me I was biased the last 2 years, yet the year that the Knights are real life favorites to win the comp and happen to do well in my sim I'm biased.

All good though, I don't care about that

I don't know if coaches are having that big a contribution.. Look at Wayne Bennett, teams been in the top 4 for about the last 4 years? Same as Bellamy. Des Hasn't missed the finals in a long time. Neil Henry isn't the highest rated coach but Cowboys are doing well in the sim. Tigers been close to the GF the last couple years. So I'm not sure if they are or not.

 

[Raider_69]

my mistake, the knights have lost 3 games, misread the table. tough given the formating and sunday night drinks

I love what your doing in terms of interest, just think there is no doubt biased is involved in their ranking.

 

[Jono078]

Everyone will call me biased, I try my best not to be.

The Knights aren't the highest rated team, I haven't even given them the highest rated coach, yet he's probably the greatest of all time.

The only player they have that is best at his position is Akuila Uate, if that's biased I think everyone can make an argument that he is the number 1 winger right now.

 

[2012....Sharks Year]

Appreciate all the effort that you've put in but if the sharks are second last after round 16 I'll do a nudie run over Captain Cook bridge in peak hour!.....and why not save yourself some work and give the knights the trophy now. Can't knock your effort though.

 

[Jono078]

Just a reminder again... Go look at last year;

http://forums.leagueunlimited.com/showthread.php?t=377414

Knights weren't first then.

It's like saying the TAB has the Knights listed as favorites, should we give them the trophy now?

 

[joshie]

Can you add in the origin variable?

 

[Jono078]

I did in the previous years, but didn't for this one.

 

[_Johnsy]

Its the off season FFS.
keep em coming champ.

if people disagree so much throw up an alternative.

 

[MacDougall]

Team Played Won Draw Loss For Agn Diff Pts
1st Knights 13 11 2 336 222 114 26
2nd Storm 14 12 2 324 250 74 26
3rd Wests Tigers 14 9 5 363 277 86 20
4th Warriors 15 10 5 331 264 67 20
5th Cowboys 14 9 5 306 266 40 20
6th Bulldogs 14 8 6 322 280 42 18
7th Rabbitohs 13 6 1 6 269 249 20 17
8th Panthers 14 7 7 286 306 -20 16
9th Eels 13 5 1 7 237 272 -35 15
10th Dragons 14 6 8 273 282 -9 14
11th Sea Eagles 14 6 8 247 273 -26 14
12th Broncos 14 5 9 244 311 -67 12
13th Raiders 13 4 9 227 304 -77 12
14th Roosters 14 4 10 278 321 -43 10
15th Sharks 15 3 2 10 244 334 -90 8
16th Titans 14 2 12 236 312 -76 6

You entered this round as a loss for the Tigers when it was a win.

 

[Snappy]

the year that the Knights are real life favorites to win the comp

:lol::lol::lol:

 

[Ladmate]

Why are you taking 10 simulations and averaging them? It should be one, because then it allows way more room for upsets.

 

[Valheru]

Lol you had me until “ratings based on personal opinion”.

 

[Packy]

Where would you suggest he gets the ratings?

Think of this as Fifa. He is simulating the entire season just for shits and giggles. He made the program so he more than anyone is entitled to rate as he sees fit.

Good work Jono. If you had a million more hours you could rate the players off stat based data and maybe then people would chill.. but that would just be and immense amount of work to get perfect.

 

[THE CHAMP]

Just a reminder again... Go look at last year;

http://forums.leagueunlimited.com/showthread.php?t=377414

Knights weren't first then.

It's like saying the TAB has the Knights listed as favorites, should we give them the trophy now?

Please dont compare your shits and giggles sim to a betting agency. At least the TAB pays up when theyre wrong.

P.S you have over-rated the knights incredibly and there are very few blow outs in the opening 8 weeks or so

 

[Jono078]

Why are you taking 10 simulations and averaging them? It should be one, because then it allows way more room for upsets.

That would be the ultimate random result then. And not a true reflection of the better team.

Lol to everyone saying I've over rated the Knights when they don't know their ratings or even how the overall rating is worked out.

I didn't realize there was actually so many douches on here, incredible.

Few more rounds coming up soon.

 

[Ronnie Dobbs]

f**k ME!

We are the Parramatta of 2012. How many close games can we lose?

I doubt I'll even watch a game now.