Jono's sim predicts 2012 NRL season

[Jono078]

Bit later tonight.

For the Record I think the Storm are on the decline this year, they can't keep being top dogs I don't think. Although I've been saying that for a few years in a row now lol.

 

[joshie]

We are no where near done. Last year was virtually a 2006 re-enactment for mine, the best is yet to come. our side is so much more balanced and developed as in previous years, I can almost assure that before the end of Smith/Slater, we will have restored all 5 titles and possibly claim more. Our pack looks a bit bigger and stronger and the young fellas in the back line have got a world of experience.

2010, the debuted under no pressure, figured out what worked. 2011, they got game time pressure in the biggest games. 2012, will probably get the job done.

 

[Jono078]

That's pretty optimistic. Although it's hard to argue against really, they've been the bench mark over the cap or not.

It's all gonna depend on how your big 3 players hold up over the seasons, I've learnt since watching league that the top players that usually start playing 30 games a year start getting injured in those 4th-5th seasons and their team usually suffers. And also on how you're younger more unknown players perform.

 

[joshie]

Valid point. But the thing that irks me off a little bit in regards to Storm is the constant talk about our big three. Of course, they do deserve it, but blokes like Ryan Hinchcliffe, Kevin Proctor, Jessie Bromwich and Gareth Widdop do so much for our team it is not funny. A game I would like to highlight is our match in Auckland last year v Warriors, around round 17, Gareth Widdop scored the first try with solo brilliance, set up the second with commanding play and played a superb game. Also, for the first time in so long, we made it through the origin period undefeated and I honestly put it down to the aforementioned blokes.

We more so need combinations to keep sticking rather than let three players do the work.

 

[Jono078]

I know what you're saying. But trust me when I say I know, it's like when Andrew Johns was around and Gidley or anyone else would have a good game. But fact is when he was out the team loses that bit of confidence and direction and someone to step up. And ultimately we wouldn't be as good and would lose the majority of games without him.

 

[joshie]

Yeah, that is why I am so thankful to have three of the bastards haha! RE: Storm v Broncos semi final 2008.

So you dont think the Storm will win the MP this year then Jono?

 

[Jono078]

No. I think they should still make the finals, but not the minor premiership.

I'm thinking Manly, Cowboys and Tigers are best chances at minor premiership, personally.

After all the results are posted in here I'll post my ladder prediction as well, we'll see what I can come up with and how different it is to my sim ;-)

 

[joshie]

Ha, fair enough. I am after one title this season, but it would be nice to have the other one too haha!

I honestly think Manly will crash and absolutely burn and probably miss the finals or just scrap in. Good riddance too!

And I look forward to it

 

[Jono078]

I've got no idea how they will go. They have largely the same team, but will they be as motivated this year after winning the comp and how will Toovey go as a coach to keep them motivated and playing top footy.

I'm leaning more towards they'll up there than down the bottom.

 

[Nice Beaver]

Hey Jono

Good on you for going to the trouble. A question on the rankings and points. Do you allocate any weight to home ground advantage on this thing? Surely not if you have Manly losing to the Roosters at Brookvale and then winning at the SFS??

Not getting precious or agro at it, just find it hard to fathom that the system could factor in home ground advantage when a team that was undefeated at home (excepting Bluetongue) would lose to a team like the Roosters at home when their points for individual ranked players would be higher given one is defending premier and the other had a dreadful year.

Makes it seem like a game of two up!!

 

[Jono078]

I mentioned it earlier in the thread that home ground advantage is a factor, but I might need to look into how affective it is as I try to improve on the simulator.

I think what I've learned so far is that coaches have a little bit too much impact and home ground advantage isn't enough.

But for both of your examples, they are both Sydney teams, so there isn't as much of an advantage for either there really.

Upsets are possible, what else can I say? Real life upsets happen and a simulator needs to be able to produce the same thing, just the chances of it are much lower. I'm sure if I hit the simulate button for that match another 5 times in a row Manly would win those 5 games.

 

[Stick]

Is the home ground advantage standard across all teams?
Maybe you need to tweak it so affects some teams more than others.
Travelling to Auckland to play the Warriors would take more of a toll on a team than travelling to Homebush to play the bunnies.
Also, some teams travel better than others and I don't think you've mentioned if you've considered that.
But I don't know the workings of your sim and those suggestions might be unfeasible.

f**king impressive though

 

[Jono078]

Yeah home ground advantage is the same for every home team right now.

I would like to make it mean more to certain teams like Melbourne and Canberra for example.

And especially a place like ANZ stadium I would like to make it less of HGA as it's shared so much and teams play there more often than other stadiums.

BTW I'll probably get this thing started in about 30 mins and finish off the season simulation and then offer my personal ladder prediction as well.

 

[ceagle]

Manly's perfect home record last season would have to put them up there.

 

[joshie]

the Knights fell away a little bit

 

[Stick]

faded like the dragons
ominous

 

[Jono078]

Round 26
Newcastle Knights 19 18 South Sydney Rabbitohs
Brisbane Broncos 20 16 Penrith Panthers
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs 19 18 Sydney Roosters
Cronulla Sharks 20 18 North Qld Cowboys
New Zealand Warriors 26 14 Canberra Raiders
Gold Coast Titans 26 16 Manly Sea Eagles
Wests Tigers 28 16 Melbourne Storm
Parramatta Eels 26 12 St George Illawarra Dragons

Team Played Won Draw Loss For Agn Diff Pts
1st Storm 24 19 5 580 430 150 42
2nd Wests Tigers 24 18 6 611 468 143 40
3rd Knights 24 16 8 574 450 124 36
4th Warriors 24 16 8 551 457 94 36
5th Cowboys 24 16 8 540 482 58 36
6th Bulldogs 24 14 10 569 477 92 32
7th Rabbitohs 24 13 1 10 489 448 41 31
8th Panthers 24 12 12 497 506 -9 28
9th Sea Eagles 24 12 12 455 487 -32 28
10th Broncos 24 9 15 452 529 -77 22
11th Raiders 24 9 15 446 575 -129 22
12th Titans 24 8 16 450 513 -63 20
13th Sharks 24 7 2 15 438 567 -129 20
14th Eels 24 7 1 16 415 530 -115 19
15th Dragons 24 7 17 451 509 -58 18
16th Roosters 24 7 17 471 561 -90 18

FINALS WEEK 1
Storm Vs Panthers
Tigers Vs Rabbitohs
Knights Vs Bulldogs
Warriors Vs Cowboys

I hate to be a buzz kill but I gotta step out. I might get the finals simulated tonight or tomorrow evening. Hope you're all still enjoying it and looking forward to it

 

[joshie]

Team Played Won Draw Loss For Agn Diff Pts
1st Storm 24 19 5 580 430 150 42
2nd Wests Tigers 24 18 6 611 468 143 40
3rd Knights 24 16 8 574 450 124 36
4th Warriors 24 16 8 551 457 94 36
5th Cowboys 24 16 8 540 482 58 36
6th Bulldogs 24 14 10 569 477 92 32
7th Rabbitohs 24 13 1 10 489 448 41 31
8th Panthers 24 12 12 497 506 -9 28
9th Sea Eagles 24 12 12 455 487 -32 28
10th Broncos 24 9 15 452 529 -77 22
11th Raiders 24 9 15 446 575 -129 22
12th Titans 24 8 16 450 513 -63 20
13th Sharks 24 7 2 15 438 567 -129 20
14th Eels 24 7 1 16 415 530 -115 19
15th Dragons 24 7 17 451 509 -58 18
16th Roosters 24 7 17 471 561 -90 18

FINALS WEEK 1
Storm Vs Panthers
Tigers Vs Rabbitohs
Knights Vs Bulldogs
Warriors Vs Cowboys

I hate to be a buzz kill but I gotta step out. I might get the finals simulated tonight or tomorrow evening. Hope you're all still enjoying it and looking forward to it

biggest **ck tease haha

 

[joshie]

Team Played Won Draw Loss For Agn Diff Pts
1st Storm 24 19 5 580 430 150 42
2nd Wests Tigers 24 18 6 611 468 143 40
3rd Knights 24 16 8 574 450 124 36
4th Warriors 24 16 8 551 457 94 36
5th Cowboys 24 16 8 540 482 58 36
6th Bulldogs 24 14 10 569 477 92 32
7th Rabbitohs 24 13 1 10 489 448 41 31
8th Panthers 24 12 12 497 506 -9 28
9th Sea Eagles 24 12 12 455 487 -32 28
10th Broncos 24 9 15 452 529 -77 22
11th Raiders 24 9 15 446 575 -129 22
12th Titans 24 8 16 450 513 -63 20
13th Sharks 24 7 2 15 438 567 -129 20
14th Eels 24 7 1 16 415 530 -115 19
15th Dragons 24 7 17 451 509 -58 18
16th Roosters 24 7 17 471 561 -90 18

And your sim backs up what i said

 

[Jono078]

Finals Week 1
Melbourne Storm 28 20 Penrith Panthers
Wests Tigers 25 18 South Sydney Rabbitohs
Newcastle Knights 26 14 Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs
New Zealand Warriors 18 24 North Qld Cowboys

Panthers and Rabbitohs Eliminated.

FINALS WEEK 2

Newcastle Knights Vs New Zealand Warriors
North Qld Cowboys Vs Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs