There's an old Jack Gibson rugby league saying: Waiting for a Cronulla NRL premiership is like leaving the porch light on for Harold Holt. Wonder what Gibson, a legendary coach and crusty character, would have said about the Warriors?
Holt, the Australian Prime Minister, went missing while swimming at Cheviot Bay back in the 1960s and was never found. The Warriors' season, after that dreadful surrender against the Knights last weekend, has almost similarly disappeared. There was strong expectation at the start that the club would enjoy a fine season, maybe even go one better than its grand final appearance last year.
It had strength (few NRL clubs had as powerful a force as the Warriors props Ben Matulino, Russell Packer, Sam Rapira and Jacob Lillyman) and depth; they told everyone who would listen that they were a "development" team, bringing through their own players instead of relying on salary cap-cracking Australians.
In their recent, rather vague press conference, Warriors owners Eric Watson and Owen Glenn said they'd invest "whatever it takes" over the next five years in initiatives designed to take the club and rugby league to "levels never seen before"; Watson said their goal was to make the Warriors the most successful club in the NRL and the most successful franchise in Australasia.
Uh, guys, there's just one little thing. Your team looks like Long John Silver's leg. The wooden one. The "most successful franchise in Australasia" might just have to win the NRL first.
So what's gone wrong this season? It's been puzzling - and don't give me that injuries hoo-ha; all NRL sides suffer from bad injury runs at some time or other in this marathon, relentless series - and coach Brian McClennan has looked increasingly uncomfortable and at a loss to explain his side's ability to switch off so alarmingly and lose matches.
THERE ARE probably three inter-related reasons - the change in coaching; an over-balancing in the development of a development team; and maybe too much emphasis on commercial rather than football urgencies, as in the voluntary loss of Krisnan Inu. All have affected confidence.
McClennan is facing his sternest test as a coach. He's had a long honeymoon, has "Bluey". Predecessor Ivan Cleary was regularly dragged off, metaphorically speaking, by angry mobs and hung from a pohutukawa tree. Yet McClennan, the hero of the Kiwis Tri Nations win of 2005, seems somehow exempt, profiting perhaps from the 'good old boy', 'one of us', syndrome.
Cleary, admittedly over a period of years and with some hiccups, gave the Warriors structure and balance. His six years saw the Warriors reach the finals three times; the best record of any Warriors coach. The club could have kept him but, faced with an offer from Penrith that would have required heavy investment, they let him go, with McClennan waiting in the wings.
The latter's critics have said that he is primarily a motivational coach; that when the motivation runs thin, there isn't much else in the tank. An example? Manu Vatuvei's promotion to captain last night against Manly.
There is no doubt of Manu's mana; that the players rate him highly and backed up his "follow me" style last night. But as a tactical, guiding, consistent leadership force, Vatuvei brings much less to the table.
To be fair, there weren't many other candidates available - probably only Nathan Friend. But it was a classic McClennan selection; a temporary fix based on emotion and motivation.
The Kiwis triumph of 2005 seems a long time ago now. He won two titles in Britain with Leeds, though his detractors say that was with a team largely built by someone else. McClennan now has to overcome that perception - that he is a motivational coach rather than a scientific one. He's got time on his side but the pressure is building, if Glenn and Watson are to realise their dream.
The club haven't done McClennan many favours. When Cleary and mentor John Hart left, a lot of the football nous went with them. Not that McClennan does not possess same - it's just that it's good to have another pair of objective eyes and ears and football knowledge to balance the commercial goals of the "suits".
AFTER SUCCESS developing players such as Kevin Locke and Shaun Johnson, the club understandably fell in love with its own development strategy.
However, with injuries and a lack of balance in some areas - think centres and wingers - they have been exposed this year. Development players such as Glen Fisiiahi and Omar Slaimankhel have similarly been exposed.
Inu - a winger-fullback-centre - was not only allowed to leave for the Bulldogs, the club paid them to take him. It created a pleasing saving in salaries for next year. Go figure. Inu was pilloried for not being able to curb his wayward ways but he has slotted straight into the Bulldogs' premiership-bidding team. He is scoring tries and kicking goals and, if he still makes the odd mistake that littered his time at the Warriors, it does not change the fact that he is a senior player and a match-winner. He was a "coaching job" - a talented enigma who should have been taken in hand rather than cast off as commercial manoeuvre.
The Warriors have moved to fix the centres problem by bringing in Dane Neilsen next year. But as one asset arrives, another departs. James Maloney will be sorely missed. The little Aussie has been at the beating heart of the Warriors' best moments, a tough little rooster with a tactical awareness that has grown over his time at the club.
He can inspire his team-mates with the lines he runs and his support play; the most inspirational small man Warrior since Stacey Jones. There are doubts his replacement, Thomas Leuluai, will measure up to Maloney's ability.
Having said all that, it is not impossible the Warriors will still make the finals this year. They have the talent - Matulino, Packer, Feleti Mateo, Johnson, Vatuvei, Maloney and Locke (when he's fit) are among the best in the NRL.
But you get the feeling the porch light will burn for a while yet.
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