He's 22 this year and in his first full season of reserve grade, though he did play a few games last year, at 21.
By comparison, here's when the rest of our forwards played their first game of open age footy, as well as their first full season:
!!!!!WARNING!!!!! !!!!!ACTUAL DATA!!!!!
Merkin | Age in 2024 | Reserve grade/NRL debut age | Reserve grade/NRL full season age |
---|
Ofahengaue | 29 | 20 (NRL) | 20 (NRL) |
Paulo | 31 | 20 (NRL) | 21 (NRL) |
Campbell-Gillard | 31 | 21 | 22 (NRL) |
Arthur | 19 | 18 | 19 |
Guymer | 20 | 19 | 20 |
Cartwright | 30 | 20 | 21 |
Doorey | 24 | 19 | 21 |
Keir | 26 | 21 | 21 |
Lane | 30 | 21 | 21 |
Lussick | 29 | 21 | 21 |
Mataele | 22 | 19 | 21 |
Matterson | 30 | 21 | 21 |
Ogden | 28 | 20 | 21 |
Parker | 22 | 21 | 22 |
Tuilagi | 25 | 19 | 22 |
Greig | 25 | 20 | 23 |
Hands | 25 | 20 | 23 |
Hopgood | 25 | 20 | 23 |
Makatoa | 31 | 21 | 23 |
Moretti | 24 | 19 | 23 |
Pryke | 20 | 20 | N/A |
Brazel | 21 | 20 | N/A |
Smith, Ryley | 21 | 20 | N/A |
Tupou | 21 | 20 | N/A |
Latu | 21 | 21 | N/A |
I would say the final column is the best indicator of NRL potential. Obviously the data isn't perfect; there is bias in the sense that youngsters are more likely to get a game in crappy teams. And while the trend is evident, there are outliers. Keir isn't as good as his early career trajectory suggests, while Hopgood is much better than his would have predicted.
Which reiterates that this is predictive, not deterministic. What this means, for the dumb merkins (and
@Delboy), is that it shows a trend not an absolute rule. So don't get pissy when I write off some slow developing player. He might prove me wrong (and if it's at our club I hope he does), but history shows he probably won't. In short, we should be getting our hopes up over Guymer and Arthur, not Latu and Ryley Smith. But it's not too late for any of these guys, including Brock Parker.