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Knock-on Effect NSW Cup - Eels Team

C

Cumberland Eel

Bench
Messages
4,293
Poupou Escobar said:
He's 22 this year and in his first full season of reserve grade, though he did play a few games last year, at 21.

By comparison, here's when the rest of our forwards played their first game of open age footy, as well as their first full season:

!!!!!WARNING!!!!! !!!!!ACTUAL DATA!!!!!

MerkinAge in 2024Reserve grade/NRL debut ageReserve grade/NRL full season age
Ofahengaue2920 (NRL)20 (NRL)
Paulo3120 (NRL)21 (NRL)
Campbell-Gillard312122 (NRL)
Arthur191819
Guymer201920
Cartwright302021
Doorey241921
Keir262121
Lane302121
Lussick292121
Mataele221921
Matterson302121
Ogden282021
Parker222122
Tuilagi251922
Greig252023
Hands252023
Hopgood252023
Makatoa312123
Moretti241923
Pryke2020N/A
Brazel2120N/A
Smith, Ryley2120N/A
Tupou2120N/A
Latu2121N/A

I would say the final column is the best indicator of NRL potential. Obviously the data isn't perfect; there is bias in the sense that youngsters are more likely to get a game in crappy teams. And while the trend is evident, there are outliers. Keir isn't as good as his early career trajectory suggests, while Hopgood is much better than his would have predicted.

Which reiterates that this is predictive, not deterministic. What this means, for the dumb merkins (and @Delboy), is that it shows a trend not an absolute rule. So don't get pissy when I write off some slow developing player. He might prove me wrong (and if it's at our club I hope he does), but history shows he probably won't. In short, we should be getting our hopes up over Guymer and Arthur, not Latu and Ryley Smith. But it's not too late for any of these guys, including Brock Parker.
Click to expand...
Right so… what’s next weeks lotto numbers merkin?? I’d bet against Parker playing more than a handful of first grade games ever.
 
Last edited:
Joshuatheeel

Joshuatheeel

Moderator
Staff member
Messages
20,159
Didn't watch the game and haven't seen much of him, but Alameddine looks pretty solid for a 19 year old.

9 runs for 113, is a pretty impressive 12.55 m a run. Pretty good. Plus had 3 TB, 2 LB, and a TA.

Obviously still very young and not sure how fast he is. But only takes 1-2 young rookie backs to have a break out year, to really change our backline for the better.
 
Obscene Assassin

Obscene Assassin

First Grade
Messages
6,317
Joshuatheeel said:
Didn't watch the game and haven't seen much of him, but Alameddine looks pretty solid for a 19 year old.

9 runs for 113, is a pretty impressive 12.55 m a run. Pretty good. Plus had 3 TB, 2 LB, and a TA.

Obviously still very young and not sure how fast he is. But only takes 1-2 young rookie backs to have a break out year, to really change our backline for the better.
Click to expand...

In his debut cup game too
 
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