Interesting theory, which on the face of it would be supported by Red Bull's actions prior to Abu Dhabi
But it would have been way too risky, given the likelihood of Alonso finishing better than fifth
You're right in that the odds of Vettel winning were obviously worse than Webber prior to qualifying, however F1 teams have shown time and time again that they will only too happily sacrifice one driver for another.
I think they knew they could get Vettel on pole, and were willing to risk the chance.
However I also think they were likely hoping to have Webber qualify 2nd or 3rd ahead of Alonso so they could then use him as a block.
Danish your right they did favour Vettel although 10 poles meant Vettel prob got the best race setup being the highest ranked driver Red Bull would argue.
So we will never know the answer but Given Webber had moderate success 3rd's a good result. Not having re-fuelling meant no oppotunity if you have a poor qualifing
I actually think not having refuelling is what led to Webber's success this year.
He has always been a tremendous qualifier, and in my opinion an excellent racer for position. His main problem seems to be pit stops, as he has forever been the no.2 driver at his team and as such got the no.2 pit crew. His pit strategies have also left a lot to be desired from time to time (how much influence he has on that I have no idea).
Vettel certainly took out plenty of poles this year, and don't get me wrong he is a worthy world champion. I just would have liked to see Red Bull throw their weight behind Webber this year. They have a decade to win 4-5 world titles with Vettel.