League Fans,
Ive compiled last years statistics, applied a couple of my patent factoring algorithms that take into account on field discipline, ref favouritism, and recruitment and have come up with my 2006 Rankings.
Note: Stats are based on Regular season games (rounds 1-26) only.
Here are some of the key elements that contributed to the overall ranking.
Attack - Tries scored. Self explanitory.
Defense - Tries conceded. Again self explanitory
Melon's AD Factor. A figure representing a combined attack.defence co-efficient. Range is from +2.0 (best attack and defense combined) to -2.0 (worst) and takes into account, line breaks, tries scored, conceded, scored off kicks, conceded off kicks, tackles made, missed, effectiveness.
Melon's FD Factor. A figure representing the balance between the ability to pull penalties, through exploiting weakness or referee favouritism, V Disciplinary problems/ conceded Penalties. For teams like the Roosters the overall resultant equated to missing the finals. For teams like Manly, it shows Greg Hartley is alive and well, and they and they were heavily favoured with many lop sided penalty counts in their favour. The Knights were the most favoured, probably a factor was the "go easy" approach due to the team with the golden child, going through the worst injury toll in history. Sympathy voting at its best. They still earnt the spoon. Ranges from +2.0 (Greg Hartley's pets) to -2.0 (cant win against the whistle no matter what).
Recruitment Factor - Takes into account players gained Versus players lost icluding factors like representative experience, suspensions/disciplinary history, position weakening or strengthening, length of contract/retention and coaching.
Overall Rankings for 2006:
1. Eels - Awesome attack. Solid defense. Key player retention very good. If their squad looked strong last year its even stronger this year with their attacking halfback Tim Smith a year wiser. Will be very hard to beat for the title. One question mark..........Coach "Bridesmaid".
2. Dragons - Last year was their year. Statistically and squad wise, they are up their. Mentally, after failing last year to "ordinary" opposition in the finals, I dont know if they can go one or two better. Notorious slow starters. But should be there abouts in the top 4 come September.
3. Broncos - Havent missed the semis in centuries. Very tired mob and still lacking a top class halfback, but Lockyear is the man. If he's fit, they can beat anyone. If he retires from origin, they'll probably win it.
4. Cowboys - A slight set back with the loss of their leader in Rauhihi. I still think they have a young and dedicated pack led by Travis Norton and a ton of enthusiasm to compensate. Will push again for a top 4 spot. Question mark over Firman and if Thurston can carry him if he has to. Good strong and willing young guns coming through.
5. Panthers - One of the power houses that just had an off year. Have the runs on teh board and the talent as well as the depth and coach to succeed again. Their retention/recruitment outweighs their losses.
6.Wests Tigers - The Premiers will find out how tough it is to back up when you are the champ. Have retained and recruited well with Lolesi over Elford strengthening their backs. If the halves and their "unknown" pack fires up again, could go close.
7. Roosters - Third top defence. Discipline on par with most. Their 2005 failure has been highlighted in having the 4th worst attack. A combination that can be described in 4 words. No Freddy, Brett Finch. Should improve with possibly the buy of the year in Harrison. Anasta to steady the halves. They lose Finch, they will win the comp.
8. Bulldogs - A bad year due to injury, lethal on their day. Have retained well, as well as the cap allows with Mr. Procrastination beaten to the last contract by Big Willie. If they stay fit, they will scare a few. Unknown halves combo is a risk.
9. Storm - Best defence in 2005 and one of the top attacks early in the season. Fell away towards the end, and the loss of Kearns, Bell and Orford will hurt them. Good and bad signings in Crocker and Walker. Will slide. Lean times ahead.
10. Sharks - If anyone makes Melbourne's woes look minor, its Cronulla. Lossing Nutley and Stevens will be huge for Kimmorley's effectiveness. Thomspon may add some spark in the pack again. Peachy's leadership will be missed. Backline will get caned.
11. Sea Eagles - They were very fortunate on several occassions last season. Stats indicate Greg Hartley lives. Best mates with the whistle, and Ben Kennedy was teh only one that really made an impact. Back to earth in 2006.
12. Knights - It used to be if Johns was fit, the Knights would probably win. Last year was evident on his return. Unfortunately, they have zero depth and even with Johns, they have the worst defence in the league. Will struggle most weeks.
13. Raiders - Have recruited well, and I think they are about to reach a turning point over the next couple of years...coaching permitted. Need some smarts on field and less whining from senior players. They are not favoured with the whistle. Wont make the 8 but wont come last.
14. Warriors - No Stacy....its over. Cleary has pressure to perform already. Will struggle without a genuine playmaker. Rovelli is not the answer.
15. Rabbitohs - To think if it wasnt for the Dogs in 2002, and the Knights horrid injury toll lst year, they would be going onto their 6th spoon in a row. The Phone Chucker's money wont make one difference....as long as George is there.
Ive compiled last years statistics, applied a couple of my patent factoring algorithms that take into account on field discipline, ref favouritism, and recruitment and have come up with my 2006 Rankings.
Note: Stats are based on Regular season games (rounds 1-26) only.
Here are some of the key elements that contributed to the overall ranking.
Attack - Tries scored. Self explanitory.
Defense - Tries conceded. Again self explanitory
Melon's AD Factor. A figure representing a combined attack.defence co-efficient. Range is from +2.0 (best attack and defense combined) to -2.0 (worst) and takes into account, line breaks, tries scored, conceded, scored off kicks, conceded off kicks, tackles made, missed, effectiveness.
Melon's FD Factor. A figure representing the balance between the ability to pull penalties, through exploiting weakness or referee favouritism, V Disciplinary problems/ conceded Penalties. For teams like the Roosters the overall resultant equated to missing the finals. For teams like Manly, it shows Greg Hartley is alive and well, and they and they were heavily favoured with many lop sided penalty counts in their favour. The Knights were the most favoured, probably a factor was the "go easy" approach due to the team with the golden child, going through the worst injury toll in history. Sympathy voting at its best. They still earnt the spoon. Ranges from +2.0 (Greg Hartley's pets) to -2.0 (cant win against the whistle no matter what).
Recruitment Factor - Takes into account players gained Versus players lost icluding factors like representative experience, suspensions/disciplinary history, position weakening or strengthening, length of contract/retention and coaching.
Overall Rankings for 2006:
1. Eels - Awesome attack. Solid defense. Key player retention very good. If their squad looked strong last year its even stronger this year with their attacking halfback Tim Smith a year wiser. Will be very hard to beat for the title. One question mark..........Coach "Bridesmaid".
2. Dragons - Last year was their year. Statistically and squad wise, they are up their. Mentally, after failing last year to "ordinary" opposition in the finals, I dont know if they can go one or two better. Notorious slow starters. But should be there abouts in the top 4 come September.
3. Broncos - Havent missed the semis in centuries. Very tired mob and still lacking a top class halfback, but Lockyear is the man. If he's fit, they can beat anyone. If he retires from origin, they'll probably win it.
4. Cowboys - A slight set back with the loss of their leader in Rauhihi. I still think they have a young and dedicated pack led by Travis Norton and a ton of enthusiasm to compensate. Will push again for a top 4 spot. Question mark over Firman and if Thurston can carry him if he has to. Good strong and willing young guns coming through.
5. Panthers - One of the power houses that just had an off year. Have the runs on teh board and the talent as well as the depth and coach to succeed again. Their retention/recruitment outweighs their losses.
6.Wests Tigers - The Premiers will find out how tough it is to back up when you are the champ. Have retained and recruited well with Lolesi over Elford strengthening their backs. If the halves and their "unknown" pack fires up again, could go close.
7. Roosters - Third top defence. Discipline on par with most. Their 2005 failure has been highlighted in having the 4th worst attack. A combination that can be described in 4 words. No Freddy, Brett Finch. Should improve with possibly the buy of the year in Harrison. Anasta to steady the halves. They lose Finch, they will win the comp.
8. Bulldogs - A bad year due to injury, lethal on their day. Have retained well, as well as the cap allows with Mr. Procrastination beaten to the last contract by Big Willie. If they stay fit, they will scare a few. Unknown halves combo is a risk.
9. Storm - Best defence in 2005 and one of the top attacks early in the season. Fell away towards the end, and the loss of Kearns, Bell and Orford will hurt them. Good and bad signings in Crocker and Walker. Will slide. Lean times ahead.
10. Sharks - If anyone makes Melbourne's woes look minor, its Cronulla. Lossing Nutley and Stevens will be huge for Kimmorley's effectiveness. Thomspon may add some spark in the pack again. Peachy's leadership will be missed. Backline will get caned.
11. Sea Eagles - They were very fortunate on several occassions last season. Stats indicate Greg Hartley lives. Best mates with the whistle, and Ben Kennedy was teh only one that really made an impact. Back to earth in 2006.
12. Knights - It used to be if Johns was fit, the Knights would probably win. Last year was evident on his return. Unfortunately, they have zero depth and even with Johns, they have the worst defence in the league. Will struggle most weeks.
13. Raiders - Have recruited well, and I think they are about to reach a turning point over the next couple of years...coaching permitted. Need some smarts on field and less whining from senior players. They are not favoured with the whistle. Wont make the 8 but wont come last.
14. Warriors - No Stacy....its over. Cleary has pressure to perform already. Will struggle without a genuine playmaker. Rovelli is not the answer.
15. Rabbitohs - To think if it wasnt for the Dogs in 2002, and the Knights horrid injury toll lst year, they would be going onto their 6th spoon in a row. The Phone Chucker's money wont make one difference....as long as George is there.
