Melon's Rankings for 2006

[Kiwi]

It's a good read Melon, well done, don't know why the Broncos recruitment was so low, Ennis and Hannant signed with only one real loss in Learoyd Lahrs. Ennis strengthens the halves and Hooking role and Hannant strengthens our forwards. The Broncos line up looks better than last years thats for sure.

 

[thickos]

Melon - excellent initial post. I think you've hit the nail on the head re: the Raiders. Naturally I hope the position is higher on the ladder than 13th for us but the summary is about right.

In terms of our player roster we've weeded out nearly all the nuffies (Gafa, Boogs, Tired Smith, Michael Robertson, Drew etc) and got good young players across a number of positions, and experienced guys in others. The kids aren't good enough yet but 2006 should be a step in the right direction.

I just hope with a stack of guys off contract that we don't lose a bunch of them and the process has to start again.

 

[Parra Guru]

Yes. Perhaps it's a musical rating. Wests Tigers and Parramatta both have musicians in their team and scored highly.

And don't forget Smokin' Joe Galavao now playing for the Bunnies

 

[Godz Illa]

Good system, but not quite perfect. It doesn't take into account the vagaries of the opposition teams. Parramatta, for instance, played 4 of the bottom 6 teams twice. Newcastle, Canberrra, Souths and Penrith. This would substantially pad their stats.

 

[The Colonel]

Parramatta, for instance, played 4 of the bottom 6 teams twice. Newcastle, Canberrra, Souths and Penrith. This would substantially pad their stats.

Not exactly - they dropped games to Newcastle, Canberra and Souths.....

 

[Mr Saab]

Godz i know what you mean, but you have to rememeber that the eels were smashed by the rabbits in the early parts of 2005. They also lost to the raiders, and knights

 

[ozbash]

very interesting thread. i think you may be right in your summation of the warriors minus stacey jones. but i also think we have the best set of forwards in the comp and when we get a halves combo that clicks,, watch out.

rovelli ? he is the warriors mystery man, if hes as good as the roosters have said he is we might be right.

our backs are on the verge, manu vatuvei,byrne,toopi and mannering along with webby at the back could be the next big thing in backs similar to the dragons last year.

all up to ivan cleary i guess .
i,m picking an ordinary first half of the season but they have the potential to be red hot in the 2nd. if they click .

 

[Godz Illa]

Hehe oh yeah, how sh*t. lol

But seriously now - they had two cracks at them, and the victories were 50-0, 48-10, and 52-16. They also played the Dogs after they'd given up the ghost, resulting in a 56-4 victory.

 

[The Colonel]

Hehe oh yeah, how sh*t. lol

But seriously now - they had two cracks at them, and the victories were 50-0, 48-10, and 52-16. They also played the Dogs after they'd given up the ghost, resulting in a 56-4 victory.

Dragons managed big wins over Souths 42-10 and 28-10, Penrith 34-12, Easts 44 - 6 and two big wins over Nth Qld - 34-4 and 36-16. In the end the big scores generally cancel each other.....

 

[Godz Illa]

Perhaps. However, Nth Qld were eventual grand finalists and the Roosters finished ninth.

The stats are black and white, but there are more colours required to complete the big picture, is all I'm saying.

 

[The Colonel]

Perhaps. However, Nth Qld were eventual grand finalists and the Roosters finished ninth.

The stats are black and white, but there are more colours required to complete the big picture, is all I'm saying.

.

Most definitely however the big scores aren't necessarily confined to a handful of sides.......

 

[RufusRex]

1. Dragons - Awesome attack. Solid defense. Key player retention very good. If their squad looked strong last year its even stronger this year with their attacking halfback Matthew Head back and wiser. Will be very hard to beat for the title. One question mark..........Coach Brown.

2. Eels - Last year was their year. Statistically and squad wise, they are up their. Mentally, after failing last year to "ordinary" opposition in the finals, I dont know if they can go one or two better. Should be there abouts in the top 4 come September.

 

[gr8_1]

Does that system take into account the Choke element ?

Good system to analyse the minor premiership, but we all know that come semi-final time its a different ball game.

My smokeys: Manly for top 4, Storm for spoon, Souths for 7th or 8th, Dogs to miss top 8 again, Finch to get dropped to the Jets then have a sook (as usual) and walk out of the club (then picked up by Souths). NZ to dominate international league.

 

[Jono078]

What the hell is the X-Factor?

Picked that rating up from the Footy Show when they done something similar to me for the Finals.

It's if your team has that player/s to pull off the big plays when needed.

I gave a 10 for the Knight, but im a bit biast .

 

[Parra Guru]

Godz i know what you mean, but you have to rememeber that the eels were smashed by the rabbits in the early parts of 2005. They also lost to the raiders, and knights

Aside from the 29-0

They were the 3 worst performances of the season, along with the hiding we copped from the broncos.

That Newcastle loss still gives me the sh!ts.

 

[Raider_69]

pigs arse mate, that Parra - Raiders game, parra played quite well, just the Raiders played out of their skins... helped having Todd Carney show some of his potential in that game... all he needs is consistancy

 

[Bicey_18]

Knights are alot better than 12th...... Will prove alot of ppl wrong this season

 

[Franko]

League Fans,

Ive compiled last years statistics, applied a couple of my patent factoring algorithms that take into account on field discipline, ref favouritism, and recruitment and have come up with my 2006 Rankings.

Note: Stats are based on Regular season games (rounds 1-26) only.

Here are some of the key elements that contributed to the overall ranking.

Attack - Tries scored. Self explanitory.

Defense - Tries conceded. Again self explanitory

Melon's AD Factor. A figure representing a combined attack.defence co-efficient. Range is from +2.0 (best attack and defense combined) to -2.0 (worst) and takes into account, line breaks, tries scored, conceded, scored off kicks, conceded off kicks, tackles made, missed, effectiveness.

Melon's FD Factor. A figure representing the balance between the ability to pull penalties, through exploiting weakness or referee favouritism, V Disciplinary problems/ conceded Penalties. For teams like the Roosters the overall resultant equated to missing the finals. For teams like Manly, it shows Greg Hartley is alive and well, and they and they were heavily favoured with many lop sided penalty counts in their favour. The Knights were the most favoured, probably a factor was the "go easy" approach due to the team with the golden child, going through the worst injury toll in history. Sympathy voting at its best. They still earnt the spoon. Ranges from +2.0 (Greg Hartley's pets) to -2.0 (cant win against the whistle no matter what).

Recruitment Factor - Takes into account players gained Versus players lost icluding factors like representative experience, suspensions/disciplinary history, position weakening or strengthening, length of contract/retention and coaching.

Overall Rankings for 2006:

1. Eels - Awesome attack. Solid defense. Key player retention very good. If their squad looked strong last year its even stronger this year with their attacking halfback Tim Smith a year wiser. Will be very hard to beat for the title. One question mark..........Coach "Bridesmaid".

2. Dragons - Last year was their year. Statistically and squad wise, they are up their. Mentally, after failing last year to "ordinary" opposition in the finals, I dont know if they can go one or two better. Notorious slow starters. But should be there abouts in the top 4 come September.

3. Broncos - Havent missed the semis in centuries. Very tired mob and still lacking a top class halfback, but Lockyear is the man. If he's fit, they can beat anyone. If he retires from origin, they'll probably win it.

4. Cowboys - A slight set back with the loss of their leader in Rauhihi. I still think they have a young and dedicated pack led by Travis Norton and a ton of enthusiasm to compensate. Will push again for a top 4 spot. Question mark over Firman and if Thurston can carry him if he has to. Good strong and willing young guns coming through.

5. Panthers - One of the power houses that just had an off year. Have the runs on teh board and the talent as well as the depth and coach to succeed again. Their retention/recruitment outweighs their losses.

6.Wests Tigers - The Premiers will find out how tough it is to back up when you are the champ. Have retained and recruited well with Lolesi over Elford strengthening their backs. If the halves and their "unknown" pack fires up again, could go close.

7. Roosters - Third top defence. Discipline on par with most. Their 2005 failure has been highlighted in having the 4th worst attack. A combination that can be described in 4 words. No Freddy, Brett Finch. Should improve with possibly the buy of the year in Harrison. Anasta to steady the halves. They lose Finch, they will win the comp.

8. Bulldogs - A bad year due to injury, lethal on their day. Have retained well, as well as the cap allows with Mr. Procrastination beaten to the last contract by Big Willie. If they stay fit, they will scare a few. Unknown halves combo is a risk.

9. Storm - Best defence in 2005 and one of the top attacks early in the season. Fell away towards the end, and the loss of Kearns, Bell and Orford will hurt them. Good and bad signings in Crocker and Walker. Will slide. Lean times ahead.

10. Sharks - If anyone makes Melbourne's woes look minor, its Cronulla. Lossing Nutley and Stevens will be huge for Kimmorley's effectiveness. Thomspon may add some spark in the pack again. Peachy's leadership will be missed. Backline will get caned.

11. Sea Eagles - They were very fortunate on several occassions last season. Stats indicate Greg Hartley lives. Best mates with the whistle, and Ben Kennedy was teh only one that really made an impact. Back to earth in 2006.

12. Knights - It used to be if Johns was fit, the Knights would probably win. Last year was evident on his return. Unfortunately, they have zero depth and even with Johns, they have the worst defence in the league. Will struggle most weeks.

13. Raiders - Have recruited well, and I think they are about to reach a turning point over the next couple of years...coaching permitted. Need some smarts on field and less whining from senior players. They are not favoured with the whistle. Wont make the 8 but wont come last.

14. Warriors - No Stacy....its over. Cleary has pressure to perform already. Will struggle without a genuine playmaker. Rovelli is not the answer.

15. Rabbitohs - To think if it wasnt for the Dogs in 2002, and the Knights horrid injury toll lst year, they would be going onto their 6th spoon in a row. The Phone Chucker's money wont make one difference....as long as George is there.

Bloody hell you had to remind me , i backed Algorithim on the Gold Coast and it's still looking for a run.

Just tought i would add on your Souths comments. They also beat Canberra home and keep in mind John Sutton was out for 8 weeks. They were the 8 weeks where they went bad. They also nearly beat home quite a few higher profile clubs. With some stability there now they should continue to improve.

 

[Frailty]

Jono78.... you gave the Knights a 7 for depth? Are you joking?

THe sharks have a 6 yet when both teams lost their halfback, Cronulla managed to win games unlike Newcastle.

Newcastle has no depth at all

 

[Jono078]

When we lose Johns our X-Factor goes down.

And plus it wasnt just Johns missing, we had almost half our FG team missing for most of the season.

And howcome everyone forgets 2004? I beleive we won 8 games without Johns.