I think the NRL could rightly argue that based on the ratings, which the NRL dominates on Fox over the AFL by a lot, that a package of all the games with 9 matches simulcast should be worth a comparable amount to the AFL deal.
Fox are talking a big game here, but time is on the NRL's side, and a few industry people I've spoken to say that the overseas players are looking at this as a pretty massive market entry opportunity. ESPN lacks some infrastructure here, but as the world's biggest sports provider they're quite capable of managing that..
You are right. Most of the quality Aussie and Kiwi players currently in the Super League would jump at the opportunities that club expansion would give them to get back into the NRL. So there would be no stretching of the talent pool in the NRL by going to eighteen clubs.
However that would create a small crisis for the Super League. First the Super League would lose many of its stars who are foreign. Second it would lose some of its currently resident English stars (e.g. Kallum Watkins, Zak Hardaker, Ryan Hall, Tom Briscoe, Chris Hill, Danny Brough, Alex Walmsley, Kyle Amor, Darrel Clark), and thus to some extent turn the Super League into a feeder league for the NRL. The Super League would probably have to retrench again down to 10 clubs because of the talent loss to the NRL.
Going to 20 teams would stretch talent too far. But I agree with 18. Brisbane 2 and Perth are no brainers. maybe by the time of the next deal you could add another two, but I'd prefer Adelaide and Christchurch. PNG has great potential, but the safety issues and economic development mean its currently got more cons than pros.
I disagree that going to twenty teams would stretch the talent pool too far.
First in the case of New Zealand, there is a rugby league talent pool in New Zealand which cannot get a regular run with the Warriors and goes to rugby union in frustration (most recently Ngani Laumape and Glen Fisiahi). Moreover, many young rugby union players who can't make the Super Rugby teams will give rugby league a shot when two professional club pathways become available.
In the case of PNG you would be using overwhelmingly, if not exclusively, PNG players who would not be in the sights of any NRL club now (Few Australian or NZ players would want to be based in PNG). The PNG Hunters would be a straight promotion into the NRL. The Hunters reserve team would play in the Queensland Cup, and provide not only backup for the NRL team, but also a talent pool that could be scouted by other NRL clubs.
I agree that the safety issue in PNG is a problem, but it could be addressed -- perhaps by creating a good security enclave around the new stadium in Port Moresby, with modern hotels and shops that offer strong police/military security to foreign visitors.