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Next TV deal discussion 2028 -

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14,822

The below is a bit of a reality check for the AFL trolls that infest this site.


Is Queensland really becoming an AFL state?​

Michael Chammas

By Michael Chammas

September 30, 2023 — 5.50am


Departing AFL boss Gill McLachlan claimed recently that Queensland was becoming an AFL state.
“We’ll be the biggest sport in that market in 5-10 years across most metrics,” McLachlan boldly claimed back in July. “It is changing. Queensland is pumping and becoming an AFL state.”


You wouldn’t have known it this week, though, judging by the attention the Brisbane Lions are receiving compared to the Broncos in the lead-up to their respective AFL and NRL grand finals.
Last Saturday, McLachlan’s theory was put to the ultimate test. The Lions, in a preliminary final against Carlton, was the precursor to the Broncos-Warriors NRL preliminary final later that night.

In Brisbane, 161,000 tuned into Channel Seven for the Lions’ grand final qualifier. That compared to the 316,000 in Brisbane who watched the Broncos end New Zealand’s resurgent season on Nine, the owner of this masthead.
In the first weekend of the codes’ respective finals series, the Broncos drew triple the television audience of the Lions. The Lions’ match against Port Adelaide had 82,000 television viewers while, the night before, 242,000 watched the Broncos claim victory over the Storm on Channel Nine.
Say cheese: Reece Walsh with adoring fans at training on Monday.

Say cheese: Reece Walsh with adoring fans at training on Monday.CREDIT:TERTIUS PICKARD/SMH

“Gill is obviously on his way out and probably isn’t spending as much time in Queensland as he would want to,” Kylie Blucher, managing director of Nine Queensland, told this masthead.
“He probably doesn’t recognise the absolute euphoria around the Broncos right now. You can’t go on the street without seeing a Broncos fan. This is changing the landscape of Brisbane.

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“When the Broncos go well, Brisbane goes well. This is historic. The history is in the making and this is what has captured the entire.”
On the Brisbane Times website, owned by Nine, there has been four times the amount of traffic to NRL stories compared to AFL stories since last Saturday. AFL ranks behind soccer, cricket, rugby union and NRL for most-read stories on the Brisbane Times.
The back and front pages of Brisbane’s The Courier Mail newspaper this week.

The back and front pages of Brisbane’s The Courier Mail newspaper this week.
The Broncos have been on the front and back page of all editions of The Courier Mail, owned by News Corp, this week.
It’s the culmination of a huge year for rugby league in Queensland, including the introduction of the Dolphins, the dominated of the State of Origin side and the grand final appearances of both the Broncos in the NRL and the Gold Coast Titans in the NRLW.

At the time of McLachlan’s comments, ARLC chairman Peter V’landys scoffed at suggestions AFL participation numbers had overtaken those of rugby league.
“They must be counting arms and legs and any other appendages,” V’landys said. “But I admire how they don’t get dizzy from all the spin.”
Keidean Coleman celebrates after the team’s preliminary final win, in which he played a key role.

Keidean Coleman celebrates after the team’s preliminary final win, in which he played a key role.CREDIT:GETTY IMAGES
Research by GEMBA shows that 44 per cent of Queenslanders are passionate supporters of the NRL. This has increased about 11 per cent over the past two years. By comparison, 28 per cent of Queenslanders say they are passionate supporters of the AFL, ranking the code fourth in the Sunshine State.
Travel experts estimate around 60,000 fans will travel from Queensland to either Melbourne or Sydney this weekend to watch the AFL and NRL grand finals.

https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/sp...ly-becoming-an-afl-state-20230929-p5e8l7.html

This is why the ARLC doesn't waste much money on developing the grassroots competitions in Adelaide, Melbourne and Perth. The amount spent will never be recuperated.

A few years ago I checked the annual reports for the QRL and AFLQ. The QRL had three to four times as many registered players signed up to play for a junior club. I don't know what the current figures are for either sport.
 

Perth Red

Post Whore
Messages
69,888
This is why the ARLC doesn't waste much money on developing the grassroots competitions in Adelaide, Melbourne and Perth. The amount spent will never be recuperated.

A few years ago I checked the annual reports for the QRL and AFLQ. The QRL had three to four times as many registered players signed up to play for a junior club. I don't know what the current figures are for either sport.
And yet

Nrl (assuming it is $400mill cash avg
(which includes 1/2 radio rights value of approx $5mill ayear)
2023 $384.2
2024 $392
2025 $400
2026 $408
2027 $416.2

afl $530mill avg (tv only)
2025 $498.8
2026 $509
2027 $519.4
2028 $530
2029 $546
2030 $556.9
2031 $568
 
Messages
14,822
And yet

Nrl (assuming it is $400mill cash avg
(which includes 1/2 radio rights value of approx $5mill ayear)
2023 $384.2
2024 $392
2025 $400
2026 $408
2027 $416.2

afl $530mill avg (tv only)
2025 $498.8
2026 $509
2027 $519.4
2028 $530
2029 $546
2030 $556.9
2031 $568

Do you believe the difference is caused by not having teams in Adelaide and Perth?

There could be other factors determining how much the broadcasters are willing to pay.
 

Perth Red

Post Whore
Messages
69,888
Do you believe the difference is caused by not having teams in Adelaide and Perth?

There could be other factors determining how much the broadcasters are willing to pay.
I believe lack of national metro reach is a partof the reason, yes.90% of tv advertising is spent on the metro areas. Companies want national reach when they are advertising during a sport.

of course there are other factors: perception of RL as a working class game, less content, sht negotiation skills (and lack of balls) of our leaders, lack of competitive tension at sales time amongst some of them.

in our advantage is: bigger audience, Sydney reach, regional reach and NZ. If we can sort out our failings we should get better tv and sponsorship dels than afl. But given the history of the games administration it’s still a very big IF!
 

docbrown

Coach
Messages
11,842
Think of it this way. There are 2.9 million people in NSW who don't live in Sydney. That's the same as the population of WA. There are 1.8 million people in QLD who don't live in the South East QLD corridor. That's the same as the population of SA. The AFL has a tokenistic presence in these places at best.

Is anyone going to seriously suggest that those 4.7 million people in NSW & QLD don't watch TV? That they don't get subscriptions to Foxtel or Stan? That they don't purchase products that advertisers need to sell to? It's not 1973. I'll tell you this - the nickname for Northern NSW in advertising circles is the 6th metro because it's that big.

If these places in regional NSW & QLD were states unto themselves, would people dare say that AFL has a truly national foothold? Think about the media markets beyond the capitals and the breakdown by population size is actually more like this:

Melbourne Metro (1 NRL vs 9 AFL) - AFL 1
Sydney (9 vs 2) - NRL 1
Auckland/New Zealand (1 vs 0) - NRL 2
SEQ (3 vs 2) - NRL 3
WA (0 vs 2) - AFL 2
Regional NSW (2 vs 0) - NRL 4
SA (0 vs 2) - AFL 3
Regional QLD (1 vs 0) - NRL 5
Regional Victoria (0 vs 1) - AFL 4
ACT (1 vs 0) - NRL 6
Tasmania (0 vs 1 in 2028) - AFL 5

You can see that the NRL has a bigger presence in 6 of the 11 markets.

Edit: I'd also point out that if you combine WA, SA, NT, Tasmania & Regional Victoria together they represent only 19% of Australia & NZ's population. That means the NRL has a presence in 81% of this market population. Conversely, the AFL has no or tokenistic presence in 33% of the same population.
 
Last edited:

Perth Red

Post Whore
Messages
69,888
“Only 10% of national media budgets are spent regionally, despite 36% of the country’s population living there. That’s 8.8 million Australians being ignored by advertising in an extraordinarily uncluttered environment.”


you have to ask why does tv have more companies aligned to its afl covg than it has for its nrl covg? Why does Toyota pay more for its naming rights to afl comp than telstra pays for nrl naming rights? Rightly or wrongly metro reach is still seen as significantly more Important by businesses.

https://www.southerncrossaustereo.com.au/media/media-releases/it-s-time-to-rethink-advertising-in-regional-australia-introducing-boomtown/#:~:text=“Only%2010%25%20of%20national%20media,in%20an%20extraordinarily%20uncluttered%20environment.”
 

Perth Red

Post Whore
Messages
69,888
One area the next deal could be much better is in fta value Imo. Ch9 are getting nrl well underpriced. They say SOO is worth $30mill a year. They get a chunk of the radio rights bundled into their deal. That’s around $35mill value of $115mill cash they are paying. Effectively only paying $80million for 3 prime time games a week.

I wonder if having a separate package of
SOO
internationals
all stars
a reinvigorated pre season nrl or world nines

then selling three nrl game package reaps a stronger return?

I’d suggest you might have 7 and 10 competing with 9 for a package like this?
 

Colk

First Grade
Messages
6,750
One area the next deal could be much better is in fta value Imo. Ch9 are getting nrl well underpriced. They say SOO is worth $30mill a year. They get a chunk of the radio rights bundled into their deal. That’s around $35mill value of $115mill cash they are paying. Effectively only paying $80million for 3 prime time games a week.

I wonder if having a separate package of
SOO
internationals
all stars
a reinvigorated pre season nrl or world nines

then selling three nrl game package reaps a stronger return?

I’d suggest you might have 7 and 10 competing with 9 for a package like this?

Yeah. I can understand the difference between the fumblers and the NRL - like it or lump it their game is longer and they have bigger audiences on FTA.

There is absolutely no reason at all why they are getting more for Pay TV rights. That part is absolutely ridiculous.
 

Perth Red

Post Whore
Messages
69,888
Yeah. I can understand the difference between the fumblers and the NRL - like it or lump it their game is longer and they have bigger audiences on FTA.

There is absolutely no reason at all why they are getting more for Pay TV rights. That part is absolutely ridiculous.
Would you say more than double fta value?
 

docbrown

Coach
Messages
11,842
“Only 10% of national media budgets are spent regionally, despite 36% of the country’s population living there. That’s 8.8 million Australians being ignored by advertising in an extraordinarily uncluttered environment.”


you have to ask why does tv have more companies aligned to its afl covg than it has for its nrl covg? Why does Toyota pay more for its naming rights to afl comp than telstra pays for nrl naming rights? Rightly or wrongly metro reach is still seen as significantly more Important by businesses.

https://www.southerncrossaustereo.com.au/media/media-releases/it-s-time-to-rethink-advertising-in-regional-australia-introducing-boomtown/#:~:text=“Only%2010%25%20of%20national%20media,in%20an%20extraordinarily%20uncluttered%20environment.”
Well remember that Boomtown have an agenda which is to get companies to spend more on advertising in regional areas and you're essentially posting a PR fluff piece. It's their mission to make people think that they're missing out on an untapped goldmine. That 10% they're talking about doesn't include all the ads that people in regional areas see by accessing capital-city based services. Significant numbers of viewers in regional QLD & NSW still watch Brisbane & Sydney based FTA broadcasting, listen to Sydney & Brisbane based relayed radio services or visit websites hosted by companies based in capital cities. So even though the money being spent is being handed over to companies based in capital cities, people in regional areas are in effect still seeing the same ads as their capital city counterparts and they are still part of the same national media campaigns.
 

The Penguin #6.

Juniors
Messages
1,161
Yeah. I can understand the difference between the fumblers and the NRL - like it or lump it their game is longer and they have bigger audiences on FTA.
Would you say more than double fta value?
And yet Wookie has NRL`s FTA figure down as 62.786m and the fumblers at 62.50m. Am I missing something or is Nine BVOD making up the difference, and if that`s the case surely the deal values should still be roughly on par.
 

docbrown

Coach
Messages
11,842
Yeah. I can understand the difference between the fumblers and the NRL - like it or lump it their game is longer and they have bigger audiences on FTA.

There is absolutely no reason at all why they are getting more for Pay TV rights. That part is absolutely ridiculous.
It's never going to be a necessarily like for like scenario. We have teams in different markets. Games of different lengths. We have State of Origin. They have a fantasy All-Australian team that plays with themselves. The question is about what the NRL can do to maximise what they've got without harming the integrity of the game itself.

For example, 20 minute half times for FTA games are a non-brainer. I'm pretty sure the women's final had one on Sunday and nobody blink an eyelid.

That said if a FTA network ends up bidding for both the full FTA & digital rights I think FTA ad revenue will actually be weighted less against subscription building. Five exclusive ad-free games on subscription including Sunday night & Monday night football. 4 FTA simulcast games on Thursday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Without a need to worry about whether the subscription partner (like Foxtel) is pulling away your audience because, hey, they're still your audience, just on a different platform.

That's what I know 9/Stan want. It's also what 10/Paramount will go for too. The question will be how much will Foxtel trying to remain in the game help drive up the price?
 

sportsnut

Juniors
Messages
193
Everyone at Lions HQ were Warriors fans for two hours last Saturday night - lol. Irony is it wouldn't have helped if the Warriors did win because they are probably more popular in Brisbane than the Lions when the kiwi bandwagon effect is in full swing

Stop making shit up. Alot of Broncos and Lions are good mates.

I know it's hard to get you head around but most people in the real-world don't act and think like some of you pathetic, obsessed code-war warriors on here.
 
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