Next TV deal discussion 2028 -

[Perth Red]

If this US venture takes off or UK keeps growing it becomes viable.

On the World scale the rights are cheap, For market size we are just too small to make it worth while.

There needs to be atleast 10m subs to make it worth it for players like that to get involved. We are no where near that yet

Where do you get that from? AFL just got $530mill ish cash a year on a audience rate of far far less. NRL will always have some presence on FTA. Streaming needs to be paying around $350mill a year for NRL to get up to $500mill plus it should be at in this next deal. FTA $150mill. NZ $30mill. Thatd be about our target

 

[Iamback]

Where do you get that from? AFL just got $530mill ish cash a year on a audience rate of far far less. NRL will always have some presence on FTA. Streaming needs to be paying around $350mill a year for NRL to get up to $500mill plus it should be at in this next deal. FTA $150mill. NZ $30mill. Thatd be about our target

As I said, The AFL is covered by inflation. NRL will get atleast that next deal especially if I am right and the current deal ends at about $470m. When you add the 9th game that is $50m extra a year. I have said all along the game gets $550m easily... more if they actually get the 20 teams by 2031 that they plan

The question was how to get more competition

Foxtel has the established customer base, Production crew, Has the Pay per view's to flog off during the RL coverage

Amazon and the like are brand new so have more start up costs, have 2 million customers who are to buy products not stream TV products.

It isn't viable for them as it stands to bid for the rights, Nor Fox US, ESPN or any of the others that people dream off.

 

[Perth Red]

As I said, The AFL is covered by inflation. NRL will get atleast that next deal especially if I am right and the current deal ends at about $470m. When you add the 9th game that is $50m extra a year. I have said all along the game gets $550m easily... more if they actually get the 20 teams by 2031 that they plan

The question was how to get more competition

Foxtel has the established customer base, Production crew, Has the Pay per view's to flog off during the RL coverage

Amazon and the like are brand new so have more start up costs, have 2 million customers who are to buy products not stream TV products.

It isn't viable for them as it stands to bid for the rights, Nor Fox US, ESPN or any of the others that people dream off.

Not sure where you're getting $470mill from? They announced an avg of $400mill, total $2billion. They adopt around a 2% accounting change year on year. Payment on the books looks something like this

2023 $384.2
2024 $392
2025 $400
2026 $408
2027 $416.2

 

[Iamback]

Not sure where you're getting $470mill from? They announced an avg of $400mill. They adopt around a 2% accounting change year on year. Payment on the books looks like this

2023 $384.2
2024 $392
2025 $400
2026 $408
2027 $416.2

No. They said just over $400m for the 2023 season they never said the total amount like AFL did

CBA being agreed to fills in some blanks.

Clint Newton said the players are getting 41% of revenue.

Their share is $1.347b. That makes total revenue for that period as $3.285b

TV is about 2/3rd of revenue.

Makes it $2.190b.

NRLW and NRL salary caps rise each year which would match the 41% of the revenue

What is unknown is whether the medical fund money was included in the $1.347b or not but it

When you throw in the 9th game + however many NRLW sides get added. there is no reason it doesn't get $550m a year if not more

The competition won't be there for TV to overpay yet anyway

 

[Perth Red]

No. They said just over $400m for the 2023 season they never said the total amount like AFL did

CBA being agreed to fills in some blanks.

Clint Newton said the players are getting 41% of revenue.

Their share is $1.347b. That makes total revenue for that period as $3.285b

TV is about 2/3rd of revenue.

Makes it $2.190b.

NRLW and NRL salary caps rise each year which would match the 41% of the revenue

What is unknown is whether the medical fund money was included in the $1.347b or not but it

When you throw in the 9th game + however many NRLW sides get added. there is no reason it doesn't get $550m a year if not more

The competition won't be there for TV to overpay yet anyway

Nope, it was announced as 'over'$400mill a year. $2bill in total.
You cant possibly future forecast NRl revenue like that lol you have no idea where NRl will increase or decrease revenue streams in the next 4 years

The NRL have announced that revenue from the game's three broadcast partners - Nine, Fox Sports and Sky NZ - will total more than $400m per annum for five years from 2023 until 2027.

Explainer: What broadcast deal means for the game

Players, clubs, NRLW, grassroots, fans to benefit

www.nrl.com

The total media rights revenue for game under the new deal is now valued at more than $400m per annum for five years, from 2023 to 2027.
The overall figure of more than $2b for five years

NRL announces 2bn in Broadcast TV and Radio Rights Agreements 2023-2027 - Sports Industry AU

The ARLC has secured a record broadcast deal for the game after reaching a new free-to-air broadcast agreement with Nine Entertainment until the end of the 2027 season. The total media rights revenue for game under the new deal is now valued at more than $400m per annum for five years, from...

www.footyindustry.com

The deal is reportedly worth $409 million per year in revenue. According to the NRL’s official site, the overall figure for the deal is more than $2 billion — an increase from its current deal that’s worth $1.8 billion.

NRL Extends Broadcast Deal, Worth $409M Annually - Front Office Sports

The National Rugby League has secured a five-year extension with longtime broadcasting partner Nine Entertainment Co worth $575 million.

frontofficesports.com

 

[Iamback]

Nope, it was announced as 'over'$400mill a year. $2bill in total.
You cant possibly future forecast NRl revenue like that lol you have no idea where NRl will increase or decrease revenue streams in the next 4 years

The NRL have announced that revenue from the game's three broadcast partners - Nine, Fox Sports and Sky NZ - will total more than $400m per annum for five years from 2023 until 2027.

Explainer: What broadcast deal means for the game

Players, clubs, NRLW, grassroots, fans to benefit

www.nrl.com

The total media rights revenue for game under the new deal is now valued at more than $400m per annum for five years, from 2023 to 2027.
The overall figure of more than $2b for five years

NRL announces 2bn in Broadcast TV and Radio Rights Agreements 2023-2027 - Sports Industry AU

The ARLC has secured a record broadcast deal for the game after reaching a new free-to-air broadcast agreement with Nine Entertainment until the end of the 2027 season. The total media rights revenue for game under the new deal is now valued at more than $400m per annum for five years, from...

www.footyindustry.com

The deal is reportedly worth $409 million per year in revenue. According to the NRL’s official site, the overall figure for the deal is more than $2 billion — an increase from its current deal that’s worth $1.8 billion.

NRL Extends Broadcast Deal, Worth $409M Annually - Front Office Sports

The National Rugby League has secured a five-year extension with longtime broadcasting partner Nine Entertainment Co worth $575 million.

frontofficesports.com

Literally from the NRL.com article you posted.

It says more than $400m a year for 5 years, No where does it say a total figure in that.

That with the CBA agreement 41% to the players points to it starting at $400m and increasing each year

 

[Perth Red]

Literally from the NRL.com article you posted.

It says more than $400m a year for 5 years, No where does it say a total figure in that.

That with the CBA agreement 41% to the players points to it starting at $400m and increasing each year

It clearly says:
'However, the five-year agreement is also a record television and media rights deal for the game, with Nine, Fox Sports and Sky NZ paying more than $2 billion'


Nine $130mill ($115mill cash) (confirmed)
NZ $32mill (cash and contra) (confirmed)
Fox $240mill (cash and contra) (unconfirmed)

Whilst not 100% clear due to other things in licensing we will get a sense of the yr1 tv cash increase when the NRL annual report comes out next year. 2022 licensing amount (which includes betting income, royalties licensing) was $410mill.Media contra in 2022 was $24.5mil for comparison.

 

[Iamback]

It clearly says:
'However, the five-year agreement is also a record television and media rights deal for the game, with Nine, Fox Sports and Sky NZ paying more than $2 billion'


Nine $130mill ($115mill cash) (confirmed)
NZ $32mill (cash and contra) (confirmed)
Fox $240mill (cash and contra) (unconfirmed)

Whilst not 100% clear due to other things in licensing we will get a sense of the yr1 tv cash increase when the NRL annual report comes out next year. 2022 licensing amount (which includes betting income, royalties licensing) was $410mill.Media contra in 2022 was $24.5mil for comparison.

Again. Paying more than $2b no exact figure anywhere. Outside of ch9 which would of now changed with the expansion of the NRLW Origin

Starts at $400m and scales up as is the case with these sort of deals.

Which matches with the players 41% from the last page.

 

[Iamback]

Amazon Australia has revenue of over $2.6bill a year, the streaming service may be a marketing tool for their main business but its a damn effective one and getting 1million NRL fans on board would be enticing you'd think.

Read their statement about the NFL, They state what their KPI is for it to be a success. That is paying $1b a year.

Then look at their Australian numbers and you will see a huge gap, A gap that isn't made up here. Get more interest from the pacific, Europe and US and you get closer to the figure they need

 

[Perth Red]

Again. Paying more than $2b no exact figure anywhere. Outside of ch9 which would of now changed with the expansion of the NRLW Origin

Starts at $400m and scales up as is the case with these sort of deals.

Which matches with the players 41% from the last page.

every single tv deal is announced as an avg and total, not as start price.

 

[Perth Red]

Read their statement about the NFL, They state what their KPI is for it to be a success. That is paying $1b a year.

Then look at their Australian numbers and you will see a huge gap, A gap that isn't made up here. Get more interest from the pacific, Europe and US and you get closer to the figure they need

they are paying $1.5billion Aus a year for around 11million viewers a week for 16 weeks of a Thurs night game
Fox sports/Kayo is generating avg 460k a game for 30 weeks NRL audience.

ie Amazon has paid $1.5bill for an annual audience of 176million ish
Fox is currently paying $240mill for an annual audience of around 90mill

50% the audience for 16% the cost!

of course thats a very simplistic valuation based purely on audience reach.

 

[colly]

It clearly says:
'However, the five-year agreement is also a record television and media rights deal for the game, with Nine, Fox Sports and Sky NZ paying more than $2 billion'


Nine $130mill ($115mill cash) (confirmed)
NZ $32mill (cash and contra) (confirmed)
Fox $240mill (cash and contra) (unconfirmed)

Whilst not 100% clear due to other things in licensing we will get a sense of the yr1 tv cash increase when the NRL annual report comes out next year. 2022 licensing amount (which includes betting income, royalties licensing) was $410mill.Media contra in 2022 was $24.5mil for comparison.

As usual you get years /facts wrong. Point your arguing with Lamback that $400 million is the amount is NOT the true amount 'by sighting the 2022 money amount at $410. But the we are talking about the new 5 year deal which started in March 2023 and has not been reported as yet, ( 1st year) and will be reported in the very soon ie in 2024 probably around February 2024. It's dishonest to report the last year of the old deal 2022 ( which was reported in 2023, which your commenting on ) As is this is the NRL new deal. Which it is not. By the way on a straight media Tv comparison leaving out a telecommunication company called Telstra, the NRL WON this 'deal' against the AFL even thou it was the last year of the 'old deal'. We will probably WIN the media rights fight this reporting period, AGAIN.
Number One NRL media rights champion 2022, and NOW , until 2025

 

[Iamback]

As usual you get years /facts wrong. Point your arguing with Lamback that $400 million is the amount is NOT the true amount 'by sighting the 2022 money amount at $410. But the we are talking about the new 5 year deal which started in March 2023 and has not been reported as yet, ( 1st year) and will be reported in the very soon ie in 2024 probably around February 2024. It's dishonest to report the last year of the old deal 2022 ( which was reported in 2023, which your commenting on ) As is this is the NRL new deal. Which it is not. By the way on a straight media Tv comparison leaving out a telecommunication company called Telstra, the NRL WON this 'deal' against the AFL even thou it was the last year of the 'old deal'. We will probably WIN the media rights fight this reporting period, AGAIN.
Number One NRL media rights champion, before, and 2022, and NOW , until 2025

As usual you get years /facts wrong. Point your arguing with Lamback that $400 million is the amount is NOT the true amount 'by sighting the 2022 money amount at $410. But the we are talking about the new 5 year deal which started in March 2023 and has not been reported as yet, ( 1st year) and will be reported in the very soon ie in 2024 probably around February 2024. It's dishonest to report the last year of the old deal 2022 ( which was reported in 2023, which your commenting on ) As is this is the NRL new deal. Which it is not. By the way on a straight media Tv comparison leaving out a telecommunication company called Telstra, the NRL WON this 'deal' against the AFL even thou it was the last year of the 'old deal'. We will probably WIN the media rights fight this reporting period, AGAIN.
Number One NRL media rights champion, before, and 2022, and NOW , until 2025

The articles PR himself posted stated the last deal was $1.8bn. This one at $2bn.

Or roughly $40m extra a year.

So if PR has correctly reported the 2022 money as $410m. That puts 2023 - year one of the deal at $450m... well less because of the yearly increase.

But has it ending at 2027 at way more than the $413m PR had it at a few pages ago.

Again though. Matches up with split from the CBA. Again looking at the jump between 2022 and 2023 Salary Caps

 

[Iamback]

they are paying $1.5billion Aus a year for around 11million viewers a week for 16 weeks of a Thurs night game
Fox sports/Kayo is generating avg 460k a game for 30 weeks NRL audience.

ie Amazon has paid $1.5bill for an annual audience of 176million ish
Fox is currently paying $240mill for an annual audience of around 90mill

50% the audience for 16% the cost!

of course thats a very simplistic valuation based purely on audience reach.

except Amazon only has 2m subs in this country who pay $10 per month Australian

US those 11m pay $14 per month or $21 Australian.

You are looking at $22bn American subs alone pull for Amazon.

That same 6 month period here is $120m

So it isn't financially worth it for those companies

 

[BlueandGold]

And a round in circles we go.

You sure you dont have Dementia Perth Red?

 

[Ramsay Snow]

The articles PR himself posted stated the last deal was $1.8bn. This one at $2bn.

Or roughly $40m extra a year.

So if PR has correctly reported the 2022 money as $410m. That puts 2023 - year one of the deal at $450m... well less because of the yearly increase.

But has it ending at 2027 at way more than the $413m PR had it at a few pages ago.

Again though. Matches up with split from the CBA. Again looking at the jump between 2022 and 2023 Salary Caps

Still less than the AFL, why do we get shafted all the time?

 

[Perth Red]

As usual you get years /facts wrong. Point your arguing with Lamback that $400 million is the amount is NOT the true amount 'by sighting the 2022 money amount at $410. But the we are talking about the new 5 year deal which started in March 2023 and has not been reported as yet, ( 1st year) and will be reported in the very soon ie in 2024 probably around February 2024. It's dishonest to report the last year of the old deal 2022 ( which was reported in 2023, which your commenting on ) As is this is the NRL new deal. Which it is not. By the way on a straight media Tv comparison leaving out a telecommunication company called Telstra, the NRL WON this 'deal' against the AFL even thou it was the last year of the 'old deal'. We will probably WIN the media rights fight this reporting period, AGAIN.
Number One NRL media rights champion 2022, and NOW , until 2025

I clearly stated that the licensing fee includes other than things than just tv money! I qouted 2022 figure under the old deal as it gives us the only (all be it muddied) point of reference and comparison for tv revenue increase in the annual report.

 

[Perth Red]

The articles PR himself posted stated the last deal was $1.8bn. This one at $2bn.

Or roughly $40m extra a year.

So if PR has correctly reported the 2022 money as $410m. That puts 2023 - year one of the deal at $450m... well less because of the yearly increase.

But has it ending at 2027 at way more than the $413m PR had it at a few pages ago.

Again though. Matches up with split from the CBA. Again looking at the jump between 2022 and 2023 Salary Caps

The $1.8bill announced didnt include SkyNZ ($100mill)
All up it was around the $1.9bill a year or an avg $380mill a year with $24mill contra. So $356mill cash a year avg (pre covid adjustments). we dont know what the covid reduction for 20-21 were or what it went back up to in 2022.

this deal is announced at 'over'$2bill or an avg of 'over'$400mill from 2023-.
No idea if that is cash and contra or just cash.

Given we know there was no cash increase from Ch9 and we can assume of the $12mill Sky NZ increase included a chunk of contra then the real cash increase from last deals $356mill avg a year would need to be around $37mill plus a year just from Foxsports for that $400mill to be cash only. Highly unlikely given all we have heard about the shonky deal and them not catching a cold.

 

[Perth Red]

Whats interesting is that we know what wagering and digital revenue was prior to it all being hidden away.

in 2019 we know licensing was around $12mill and wagering around $45mill. Even if stayed same in 2022, which youd expect it has increased in 3 years, that puts the cash tv revenue at around $353mill at most in 2022.

 

[Perth Red]

Licensing revenue recent history
( Licensing includes Media (inc digital), Wagering product fees and Merchandise Royalties)

2019 Total $403.3million (TV $324.6million, royalty licensing $12.2mill, digital $20mill, wagering $46.5mill)
2020 $332.2million
2021 $405.1million
2022 $409.8million