You've missed my point, I'm not saying in terms of total subscribers who might subscribe for epl v NRL.
they will not get tne subscribers for NRL that they would get from an exclusive deal like epl.
:lol:
They're your words, not mine and it's not like they're open for interpretation. If you can't clearly elucidate what's rambling inside your own head it's no-one else's fault.
If your an NRL fan and Optus get the rights you have the option of just watching on fta or subscribing to Optus to get the extra games.
Which is a similar scenario to the present situation with Foxtel...
Given the Internet factor,
Well I know you love comparing things with the AFL so lets talk about "the Internet factor". That "information superhighway thingy" is what Telstra just paid the AFL $300 million for -- despite the fact that they're in competition with market targeted F2A & subscription television -- the things you claim will hurt Optus' bottom line.
In the scenario you're talking -- Telstra/Optus wouldn't even be competing against subscription television -- so that price would go up even more.
You said:
if there was the digital rights that Telstra stump up for would be worth a heck off a lot more.
So basically your claim is -- somehow Telstra can find the profit to make the scenario viable but Optus can't because of... mumble mumble... "internet factors"... :blahb::blahb:
I agree Telstra can make that scenario work as they want subscribers to migrate to their new platform and they're willing to take on loss leaders to do so.
But let's get real here -- if Telstra can find a way to migrate all the Foxtel subscribers they would dump News & Foxtel in a heartbeat. Why? They wouldn't have to profit share. At the moment they're just keeping a foot in each door and News knows this. Because they're trying to do the same thing -- hence why they're trying to migrate as well. Both of them know that's where the market majority is moving.
I'll let you in on a secret but don't tell anyone -- OPTUS ARE TRYING TO DO THE SAME DAMN THING! :lol:
They are ALL willing to take on loss leaders to effect this change. Stop trying to treat Optus as if they are some exception to the rule.
You've come up with some numbers:
can you honestly see enough subscribers at say $20 a month to make a profit for Optus if they stumped up $150mill a year plus production costs?
In Year 1 no. In year 5 potentially. In the mean time they will have inflicted a serious wound in their main rivals and built their market base so in year 6-10 the major rewards are reaped. I agree when you say Optus are positioning themselves for the future - this is how new media business plans unfold - an upfront loss for a long term gain.
I've said it before - I still think the NRL will end up on Foxtel. Could Optus drive up the price & prevent them from low balling? Yes. So can others. Could Optus end up with the streaming rights instead of Telstra? You better believe it.
Telstra were already putting pressure on Fox to come back to the negotiating table. What do you think the pressure will be like now that the Telstra business model is at risk?
