No Expansion for at least 5 years

[newman]

Would most clubs would be close to secure financially now?

Pretty much. Some questions still remain around Penrith, GC and Manly but with the new T.V deal and careful management they will be o.k.

 

[Perth Red]

AFL has decided it will prop up it's struggling clubs AND expand their game to new horizons. We now have the same income as them nearly and our clubs do not require as much central funding or expansion funding. I fail to see any logical reasoning why we are not able to do the same, what exactly is the ARLC going to spend its new found wealth on? I really hope they are not going to squander it on new caprets and tea sets for the commision offices, we have seen enough pocket lining in RL at the expense of the growth of the game.

 

[applesauce]

Will the ARLC have the balls to cut a Sydney team or force a relocation after the botches of the late 90's and the Northern Eagles fiasco, or does anyone think that there will be any teams that can't survive after this new deal?

The most likely scenario is Manly moving to the Sunshine Coast due to financial strains of 3-4 years of missing the 8 and really affecting their bottom line. Paving the way for the CC to come in with Perth hopefully already in.

The chances of this happening at 1:1000 and is the only way a Sydney team will now leave Sydney.

Roosters have coin. The Sharks will be stable. Rabbitohs and Dragons won't be going anywhere. None of the western Sydney teams can afford to go as it will be seen as the AFL having won the 'war' so the ARLC will prop them up. That leaves Manly who are just in the black after being the only team in the last 8yrs to make every finals series.

I am not bagging Manly, this wont happen, but it is the most likely if a Sydney club was to get shipped out.

 

[newman]

AFL has decided it will prop up it's struggling clubs AND expand their game to new horizons. We now have the same income as them nearly and our clubs do not require as much central funding or expansion funding. I fail to see any logical reasoning why we are not able to do the same, what exactly is the ARLC going to spend its new found wealth on? I really hope they are not going to squander it on new caprets and tea sets for the commision offices, we have seen enough pocket lining in RL at the expense of the growth of the game.

"But I wanna team in PERTH"

You fail to even see the benefits of structured, measured growth over time. 18 months ago a couple of clubs were going to fall over. The ARLC are being cautious. Nothing wrong with that. While you make some good arguments for expansion, you conveniently forgot what happened to the game after the last lot of major expansions.... Shit storm....

And there are plenty of Australian sporting expansions that havent worked either. GWS and the Suns is a failure. North Coast Fury and Gold Coast FC?

 

[Perth Red]

FFS you want to compare now with 1997? They are two totally different scenarios with no comparison.

Of course I want a team in PERTH, I live in perth, am a massive RL fan and want to follow a team in the NRL!

I want to see structued mesaured growth. What I don;t want to see is the ARLC chairman coming out with statements like TV don;t want it so it has no value, might not happen for 10 years etc etc. Build the foundations now with very clear intentions, very clear goals and let everyone know what the plan is. if they do not ever see a team in Perth then do the honest thing and say so so we can stop wasting our time and money.

Typical RL mentality re Suns and GWS, AFL are not looking at the success in year one, they are looking at the value to their code over the next 40 years. You only have to look at the hysteria re the Titans earlier this year to see the short termism that blights RL, one of the reasons we have such an amazing on field product that has failed to grow beyond a few enclaves.

There are also plenty of sporting expansions that have worked very succesfully, Swans, Dockers, Lions, Warriors, Force etc

 

[Kirky]

"But I wanna team in PERTH"

You fail to even see the benefits of structured, measured growth over time. 18 months ago a couple of clubs were going to fall over. The ARLC are being cautious. Nothing wrong with that. While you make some good arguments for expansion, you conveniently forgot what happened to the game after the last lot of major expansions.... Shit storm....

And there are plenty of Australian sporting expansions that havent worked either. GWS and the Suns is a failure. North Coast Fury and Gold Coast FC?

GWS' abysmal first year both on and off the field would have rocked even the most strident AFL apologist, and I honestly don't see them surviving 5 years, but as an outsider (to both the code and the region) looking in I don't see how the Suns could be considered a failure up on the Coast?

I would also caution using soccer expansion as a reason for not expanding the NRL, as both the sport and its governing body the FFA are a joke.

In any case, it seems the decision (or indescision) has been made by Grant, so there's no point arguing over what might have been. We have 5 years to strengthen our base to prepare for expansion, and after years of treading water, it'll do the sport a world of good to get our sh*t together during this period. When the AFL expanded they were the most financially strong sporting comp in the country, and it's nearly broken them (still might). I think we're playing it smart by strengthening ourselves before taking the plunge on expansion. Perth and Brisbane will still be there in 5 years time.

 

[rednblack]

There are also plenty of sporting expansions that have worked very succesfully, Swans, Dockers, Lions, Warriors, Force etc

I understand your point, but these are poor examples.
Swans were a relocation.
Lions were a merger.
You yourself regularly bag out the force's success (I believe you call them the "FARCE").
Some better thought out examples might have made your point much clearer.

 

[Perth Red]

Depends on the Farce's measure?

Have they brought much greater exposure to RU in WA? Yes regualr wallabies and Int's, WC games, media pull out every week, alot more inches in the West
Do they have a strong membership base? yes, 12K+ with an avg 15-18k crowd
Have they financially done ok? Yes, made a profit every year bar one
Have they been able to leverage State Govt funding for RU development on the back of their inclusion to S15? yes got a $10mill state funded training centre and HQ built plus Jnr funding
Have they grown jnr participation numbers? Yes doubled them

Only area they have been poor in is on the field (thankfully!). if they ever get their sh1t together on the field then RL, without the hope of an NRL team, in WA is going to be back to struggle street. Most kids here play Union and League U16's and with no pathway of our Sg ball team stops then any parent is going to be encouraging the talented ones to be playing Union and looking for a Force contract.

Sticks in my throat to say it but they are going ok

For every poor expansion story there is a succesful one. Merger or relocation it is still expansion, ARLC doesn't have the balls to do either imo so it will be new team expansion or nothing.

 

[newman]

So a group of top echelon, well payed, experienced sports admin professionals who are privy to the complete financial position of the game and the clubs within that game reach the conclusion that now is not the right time to expand. They also say, in direct contradiction to what you have preached for many years, there is no real tv value in another game.

You on the other hand believe the opposite.

Who should I believe?

 

[Eddie Lab]

I can see the reason for a five year wait.

for 10+ years RL has been run off the minimum and a lot of areas are struggling;
- titans, tigers, sharks, eagles, panthers, roosters and rabbitohs(before being bought) have all had articles written about how poor they are.
- country RL is constantly crying for money
- grass roots is crying for money
- ticket prices are way to high in some stadiums and member prices are crazy high for some teams
- players need a decent pay raise
- as you say P. Red in other threads; crowds aren't growing at a decent pace, membership packages are rubbish and marketing of RL is awful. all of these areas could use some extra funding.

I think 5 plus years is harsh, but 3 or 4 years should be plenty to get RL in a strong position.

 

[docbrown]

Some points to consider:

• If the NRL doesn't expand prior to 2017, then in five years time when the next TV contract comes up for negotiation, what will the NRL have done to prove that a 9th game is worth $$$ to the networks?
• If their strategy is to "do nothing" then in five years time why wouldn't we hear the exact same excuse?
• Based on the expected club grant allowance expansion will cost the NRL around $40-$42 million for two club for three years from 2015 to 2017. Out of a five year deal that will likely end up to be around $1.15 billion in cash once the rest of the rights are finalised expansion would constitute less than 4% of the NRL's annual budget.
• The two new clubs could prove their financial stability by having a guaranteed $13-15 million annual revenue stream outside of the NRL's grant
• Two areas not only get a team but a network of staff and players promoting and marketing the game and expanding the fanbase. $42 million as a national marketing exercise isn't unreasonable.
• Forget about TV funding expansion. Give the game away to 9 & Fox to simulcast together for free in exchange for a Sunday Doubleheader on Channel 9 with the first game simulcast live and the second game switched to a live Channel 9 only coverage. This avoids eating into Foxtel's protected Saturday & Monday night slots but expands the game's live and F2A coverage.
• After 3 years on F2A with a track record of ratings performance, when the next TV negotiation comes around it will pay dividends as it is not only a now proven property but it further increase the game's national profile, offers an additional property, both of which paying dividends when it comes to generating competitive tension between the networks

So basically expand in 2015 with two new teams and give the game away to F2A for free in exchange for better coverage now and a bigger broadcast deal in 2017.


Win-win-win.

 

[Perth Red]

That's the point. i am not expecting an announcement that we are admitting 2 new teams next year. What i would like to know is when, where and what the game is going to do in the mena time to grow the foundations in those areas ready for expansion. it's all well andgood to say in 5 years, but in 5 years we are back to where we are at now, needing lead in times, wondering if TV will pay for it etc etc. Have a plan and tell us it. I have always said the Pirates are the end plus for RL in WA, there is a lot of things that we can and should be doing and funding right noow so that in 2, 3, 5 or whenver years we do get the Pirates the game is really fourishing to its max potential here ready for that final massive boost a NRL team will have.

You also have to consider we have been on that development raod for 5 years already so it's not like we are rushing this!

As or your question newman, trust who you like, our game has a very poor record of management, development and growth. That is due to those so called experts that have led our game for the last 20 years+. Maybe this mob are different but my experience of RL around the world for 30 years would suggest we are weak in leadership, have little vision and spend more time looking at our navel than we do looking over the horizon.

 

[The Mad Hatter]

For the game, personally, I hope Perth comes in to expand the horizon AND a 2nd Brisbane team comes in to give Brisbane a match each and every weekend, build rivalry, etc.

We need a Demetriou type to make tough decisions for all facets of the game.

 

[clarency]

well said Red. It seems the Commission has fallen into the trap of saying we can say nothing until we have a strategy , taking too long to announce the strategy then not being able to hold water and start leaking information when pressed by journos.
I love the continued comments that no-one from the NRL told anyone to prepare bids...did the bidders imagine the original 2013 date and the revised 2015 date, did the NRL ever say guys we may not expand please dont waste yours or the publics money? I must have dreamt of NRL hierarchy inspecting bid regions and make comment.
Last time I checked the new footy year starts in 27 days and we have no news on the cap or the club grants.
If this is how the Commission goes about business no wonder David Gallop agreed to go quickly and quietly!

They didn't imagine, they assumed that expansion was going to happen with no real reason to back it up.

And Gallop was the one who said to continue spending money on the bids, while John Grant said publically for the bids to stop spending.

Gotcher leaders tangled there.

 

[Perth Red]

Not strictly speaking true!

Back in 2009 the NRL met with the WARL and recommended to them that they should abandon JB cup and put their resources into developing an SG Ball set up ready for expansion

IN 2010 the NRL met with the WA Govt to suggest to them that the redevelopment of nib should include more corporate boxes and a third home team changing room to accomodate the needs of a future NRL team in Perth.

Whilst they have never directly said there will be expansion the fact they have never said there will not be expansion has been enough for areas to develop bids and spend money and resources doing so.

For us it is not a problem as that has the double positive of developing the game in WA anyway but for clubs like NS or areas like CQ that would be money and time they copuld have spent elsewhere.

The ARLC needs to get its shit together and quickly and tell the bids what is happening and who should keep spending resources developing.

 

[Expansion]

Can't believe people are seriously talking about the possibility of losing any NRL team from the competition.

 

[Quidgybo]

GWS' abysmal first year both on and off the field would have rocked even the most strident AFL apologist, and I honestly don't see them surviving 5 years...

It'd be delusional on our part to believe that the AFL would stop propping up their western Sydney franchise. They may choose to merge it with a struggling Melbourne team like they did with the Bears, but as with Brisbane and the Swans, they're in it for the long term. Regardless of how few spectators turn up to watch games or how few watch on television they will continue to fund it until it turns around, even if that takes 20 or more years. The AFL isn't the A-League. The fact they have a competition with the likes of Collingwood, Carlton, West Coast and so forth ensures that despite the ups and downs they will still pull in enough money to essentially fund this team indefinitely. And they will.

Leigh.

 

[clarency]

Not strictly speaking true!

Back in 2009 the NRL met with the WARL and recommended to them that they should abandon JB cup and put their resources into developing an SG Ball set up ready for expansion

IN 2010 the NRL met with the WA Govt to suggest to them that the redevelopment of nib should include more corporate boxes and a third home team changing room to accomodate the needs of a future NRL team in Perth.

Whilst they have never directly said there will be expansion the fact they have never said there will not be expansion has been enough for areas to develop bids and spend money and resources doing so.

For us it is not a problem as that has the double positive of developing the game in WA anyway but for clubs like NS or areas like CQ that would be money and time they copuld have spent elsewhere.

The ARLC needs to get its shit together and quickly and tell the bids what is happening and who should keep spending resources developing.

The WARL has done it how it is meant to be done, as there really isn't any "waste".

2009 - Commission were not in control, you can hardly blame them for that.

2010 - Smart move that, while it does suggest expansion, it doesn't suggest immediate expansion.

When John Grant comes out and says the bids should stop spending money, it kinda sends a message.

 

[BunniesMan]

I reckon around 2018 is a lot more likely than 2015 at this point. By the sounds of most things John Grant has said, there will be little to no extra money from tv for a ninth game in the medium term so a 17th and 18th team will be taking money from existing clubs. By the sounds of it the existing clubs want/need every cent of this new big deal.

Day 1 of the next deal is a much more realistic timetable than during the life of the current deal.

 

[Quidgybo]

Day 1 of the next deal is a much more realistic timetable than during the life of the current deal.

Except at day 1 of the next deal, a ninth game will still have no value for TV if they haven't got some runs on the board for the new teams to show they produce ratings worth paying extra for.

Leigh.