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So if you read all the forum replies and indeed on the AFL forums following the expected Folau signing for GWS in the AFL, most people are completely missing the point on the business side and the wider implications across all sports. The chest beating on both sides misses exactly what is going on here and why the NRL needs to be worried not in the short term but the long term...and not just from the AFL.
Now from the AFL's perspective; their marketing plan, the changing of the rules and all outward comments since the mid 90s really and the actual expansion from the 80s is they want to be Australia's No.1 sport. In some sense this may be achieved looked at across some factors like Revenue, Attendance, etc. but it is certainly not clear cut across all major factors nor is it obviously proportional across all major and non major areas. Most threateningly for them their market position is also not so clear cut in all markets, including the southern and western markets they currently dominate, that in the longer term they could be threatened. I will come back to this.
The worrying apart of all this for RL, is that it is not the NRL or Rugby League (or Union) the AFL is worried about, it is Soccer in terms of the Long term success. Prior to Soccer their worries was also not RL but RU and Cricket.
Remember in 1975 (only 35 yrs ago), the AFL was the VFL and solely in Victoria. The NSWRL was arguably equally as strong and the SANFL, QRL and WAFL were also viable tier 1 entities. Their was no National Soccer competition and soccer was a minor sport at all levels. RU was also void of anything big and was still amateur and cricketers were underpaid prior to the Packer fueled World Series revolution. Hell the pinnacle of RL being SOO did not even exist.
Fast forward to today and the Australian Football team (i.e. Soccer) is probably the most widely followed National team and certainly contains by far collectively the highest paid athletes and widely known global and national names. The top cricketers are probably the highest domestic based sportsman in the country and with the emergence of India as a global economic power only accentuates the earning potential.
The NRL's and RL in general, greatest strength is also it biggest weakness. Even neutrals who are not RL fans can watch SOO and appreciate both the quality of the show, the passion of the event and the spectacle it has become. However evaluate this from a business perspective.
If this is the no. 1 strength, how does RL pitch this to someone who is not from NSW or QLD? How can someone who grew up elsewhere in Aus or indeed globally have that same passion as a local representing a state. Yes islander players have played for SOO teams but does Lote Taquiri ultimately feel the same about Qld that Gordon Tallis did and does. Would Gordon Tallis wear a blue shirt in any sport? Even Mat Rogers played in both shirts across RL and RU.
So if this is a given, money power of other sports, market factors and demographic changes aside, then the best RL can do for the most part, is hold ground in their current markets. This is a dangerous strategy for any business in any sector let alone a crazy competitive and ever changing one like sport which is influenced by so many other things.
Assuming the majority of the Qld and NSW sporting market is similar these are the typical categories of people;
TYPE 1:
Primary: RL and/or RU fan
Secondary: Fan of additional sports like AFL, Soccer, Motorsport etc.
TYPE 2:
Non Sports Fan
TYPE 3:
Primary: Fan of Additional Sports but not RL and/or RU
TYPE 4:
Recent Immigrant
So currently the Type 1 fan for RL will for the most part always be a RL (or RU) fan first and only follow other sports secondarily. However what of this person's children. Well given that kids are both largely influenced by their parents and their peers/pop culture, chances are a proportion of these will drift to either Type 2 or Type 3 and so it continues generationaly. This will happen naturally as people are exposed to more sports and other entertainment forms more easily via the Internet and New Media. The AFL efforts with Hunt and Folau are designed to help this but it will only be incremental in the short term as it will change few current fans from Type 1 but it is designed to appeal to Type 1's kids and Type 4 people as well as hold and grow their Type 3 base.
The AFL on top of this which has currently close to 50% of its fan base as women (which is very different to the male dominated fan base of RL) realizes that this is the untapped market of NSW and QLD where a lot of Type 2 ppl reside. Now in recent years by eliminating a lot of the on field violence, this has helped grow that demographic which has 2 benefits.
1. Increases fan base helping game sales, tv revenue and also with women being generally larger consumers increasing merchandise sales, etc.
2. Many of these women will become or are mothers and play a large role in both the sports their kids are allowed to play and because they are household financial decision maker more often these days, where money is spent
Soccer is the clear winner of Junior minds and numbers in Australia from parents being happy with the non-violent nature, the simple rules, more readily than ever being able to interact with their stars via Internet/Cable and the Live Games like A-League/ACL and Internationals. Additionally as the kids get older, the ones with talent can legitimately view a lucrative career domestically and globally which only as recently as the 90s was a pipe dream and more rare occurrence.
The AFL marketing and overall strategy is designed to counter this offense targeting the Type 2 and Type 4 fan. The Type 1 fan target ultimately is about ensuring they cover all bases and is for the longer term to get the next generations. So like I said long after Folau and Hunt are retired.
Now what is the NRL and RL in general doing. Clearly they are not as sophisticated as Soccer, the AFL or even Cricket at going after the Type 2 fan which is dominated by Women. There is very little large scale efforts to go after the reverse Type 1 fan in other states or Internationally. Even the AFL teams have academy bases in places like South Africa and NZ not to mention Ireland to try and cover this difficult base for them. As for the Type 4 fan (and their kids) who is increasing each year and most likely to call Soccer their sport of choice, there is certainly no major initiative to win these minds or the minds of their kids.
So ultimately RL in NSW and Qld is trying to hold on to those Type 1 fans. Yes they will get incremental growth from other types but that will be minute compared to the fans being lost over the next 35 years and beyond to AFL, Soccer, Cricket, Numerous Other Sports like even UFC, Other Entertainment Forms.
So just like 1975 is unrecognizable to 2010, 2045 (quite possibly a generation after a World Cup is in Aus in 2022 and the two expansion AFL teams will be 30 yrs into their history) will be completely different to now. China will rival (if not surpass) the US as an economic power in 2045 and India not far behind. In 1975 this was unthinkable to most.
At that point where will RL be? And will SOO be even here b/c 35 yrs ago the pinnacle of the sport was non existent so who is to say 35 yrs from today it will be.
As I said behind all the chest beating on all forums, this is the business of sport due to the market and demographic changes. The NFL invests heavily in Europe (and even has regular season games in London), the NBA spends huge money in Asia as does Fifa and the ICC knows that India is the key to its global business future.
So if you are 40 yrs old now with a 10 yr old child and you would like that child to be primarily a RL fan at your age, you should be very worried about what RL is doing or really NOT doing as a business.
Now from the AFL's perspective; their marketing plan, the changing of the rules and all outward comments since the mid 90s really and the actual expansion from the 80s is they want to be Australia's No.1 sport. In some sense this may be achieved looked at across some factors like Revenue, Attendance, etc. but it is certainly not clear cut across all major factors nor is it obviously proportional across all major and non major areas. Most threateningly for them their market position is also not so clear cut in all markets, including the southern and western markets they currently dominate, that in the longer term they could be threatened. I will come back to this.
The worrying apart of all this for RL, is that it is not the NRL or Rugby League (or Union) the AFL is worried about, it is Soccer in terms of the Long term success. Prior to Soccer their worries was also not RL but RU and Cricket.
Remember in 1975 (only 35 yrs ago), the AFL was the VFL and solely in Victoria. The NSWRL was arguably equally as strong and the SANFL, QRL and WAFL were also viable tier 1 entities. Their was no National Soccer competition and soccer was a minor sport at all levels. RU was also void of anything big and was still amateur and cricketers were underpaid prior to the Packer fueled World Series revolution. Hell the pinnacle of RL being SOO did not even exist.
Fast forward to today and the Australian Football team (i.e. Soccer) is probably the most widely followed National team and certainly contains by far collectively the highest paid athletes and widely known global and national names. The top cricketers are probably the highest domestic based sportsman in the country and with the emergence of India as a global economic power only accentuates the earning potential.
The NRL's and RL in general, greatest strength is also it biggest weakness. Even neutrals who are not RL fans can watch SOO and appreciate both the quality of the show, the passion of the event and the spectacle it has become. However evaluate this from a business perspective.
If this is the no. 1 strength, how does RL pitch this to someone who is not from NSW or QLD? How can someone who grew up elsewhere in Aus or indeed globally have that same passion as a local representing a state. Yes islander players have played for SOO teams but does Lote Taquiri ultimately feel the same about Qld that Gordon Tallis did and does. Would Gordon Tallis wear a blue shirt in any sport? Even Mat Rogers played in both shirts across RL and RU.
So if this is a given, money power of other sports, market factors and demographic changes aside, then the best RL can do for the most part, is hold ground in their current markets. This is a dangerous strategy for any business in any sector let alone a crazy competitive and ever changing one like sport which is influenced by so many other things.
Assuming the majority of the Qld and NSW sporting market is similar these are the typical categories of people;
TYPE 1:
Primary: RL and/or RU fan
Secondary: Fan of additional sports like AFL, Soccer, Motorsport etc.
TYPE 2:
Non Sports Fan
TYPE 3:
Primary: Fan of Additional Sports but not RL and/or RU
TYPE 4:
Recent Immigrant
So currently the Type 1 fan for RL will for the most part always be a RL (or RU) fan first and only follow other sports secondarily. However what of this person's children. Well given that kids are both largely influenced by their parents and their peers/pop culture, chances are a proportion of these will drift to either Type 2 or Type 3 and so it continues generationaly. This will happen naturally as people are exposed to more sports and other entertainment forms more easily via the Internet and New Media. The AFL efforts with Hunt and Folau are designed to help this but it will only be incremental in the short term as it will change few current fans from Type 1 but it is designed to appeal to Type 1's kids and Type 4 people as well as hold and grow their Type 3 base.
The AFL on top of this which has currently close to 50% of its fan base as women (which is very different to the male dominated fan base of RL) realizes that this is the untapped market of NSW and QLD where a lot of Type 2 ppl reside. Now in recent years by eliminating a lot of the on field violence, this has helped grow that demographic which has 2 benefits.
1. Increases fan base helping game sales, tv revenue and also with women being generally larger consumers increasing merchandise sales, etc.
2. Many of these women will become or are mothers and play a large role in both the sports their kids are allowed to play and because they are household financial decision maker more often these days, where money is spent
Soccer is the clear winner of Junior minds and numbers in Australia from parents being happy with the non-violent nature, the simple rules, more readily than ever being able to interact with their stars via Internet/Cable and the Live Games like A-League/ACL and Internationals. Additionally as the kids get older, the ones with talent can legitimately view a lucrative career domestically and globally which only as recently as the 90s was a pipe dream and more rare occurrence.
The AFL marketing and overall strategy is designed to counter this offense targeting the Type 2 and Type 4 fan. The Type 1 fan target ultimately is about ensuring they cover all bases and is for the longer term to get the next generations. So like I said long after Folau and Hunt are retired.
Now what is the NRL and RL in general doing. Clearly they are not as sophisticated as Soccer, the AFL or even Cricket at going after the Type 2 fan which is dominated by Women. There is very little large scale efforts to go after the reverse Type 1 fan in other states or Internationally. Even the AFL teams have academy bases in places like South Africa and NZ not to mention Ireland to try and cover this difficult base for them. As for the Type 4 fan (and their kids) who is increasing each year and most likely to call Soccer their sport of choice, there is certainly no major initiative to win these minds or the minds of their kids.
So ultimately RL in NSW and Qld is trying to hold on to those Type 1 fans. Yes they will get incremental growth from other types but that will be minute compared to the fans being lost over the next 35 years and beyond to AFL, Soccer, Cricket, Numerous Other Sports like even UFC, Other Entertainment Forms.
So just like 1975 is unrecognizable to 2010, 2045 (quite possibly a generation after a World Cup is in Aus in 2022 and the two expansion AFL teams will be 30 yrs into their history) will be completely different to now. China will rival (if not surpass) the US as an economic power in 2045 and India not far behind. In 1975 this was unthinkable to most.
At that point where will RL be? And will SOO be even here b/c 35 yrs ago the pinnacle of the sport was non existent so who is to say 35 yrs from today it will be.
As I said behind all the chest beating on all forums, this is the business of sport due to the market and demographic changes. The NFL invests heavily in Europe (and even has regular season games in London), the NBA spends huge money in Asia as does Fifa and the ICC knows that India is the key to its global business future.
So if you are 40 yrs old now with a 10 yr old child and you would like that child to be primarily a RL fan at your age, you should be very worried about what RL is doing or really NOT doing as a business.
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