NRL's growth mindset points to 18th team. And it ain't Perth.

[The Great Dane]

Perth won’t get another afl team until it’s well over 3 million population, if then. At moment despite a bigger stadium you still can’t buy an eagles membership without paying to be on a list for years. Dockers still have around 30-40% capacity before it’s memberships are sold out. They won’t put a northern perth team in for a very long time, if ever. Why? Because they dont need to! It adds nothing to what they’ve already got.

IF tassie get admitted, and let’s be honest the afl don’t really want them and are putting in As many hoops as they can to trip them up then it will be canberra next, if the act govt throws lots of money at it.

I agree that the AFL wouldn't add a third team in Perth in an ideal world, but they wouldn't be expanding yet if things were ideal.

The only reason they're looking at Tasmania at all is because of political pressure. If Tassie can get the few hundred mil they need from the federal government then it'll put the AFL into an awkward position where they're forced to expand well before they're ready for it. Let's say Tasmania gets approved now and enter the comp somewhere between 2025-28, that would mean that the AFL has to find a 20th team to launch sometime in the early 2030s at the latest, which will highly restrict their options.

The AFL are still propping up both the previous expansion sides and will want to avoid taking on another expansion project like that, which rules out pretty much every potential expansion opportunity except for Canberra, Perth, and arguably some of the other major capitals if they're truly willing to explore selling a license to private owners.

The problem with Canberra is that we're going a long way to propping GWS up, and if GWS was to lose Canberra the AFL would need to find millions of dollars more revenue for the club to remain solvent (it would literally halve GWS's membership numbers to give you an idea). The AFL could afford to cover the difference if worst comes to worst, but the other clubs wouldn't be happy about it, especially considering that Canberra and Tasmania will need extra support as well.

On top of that, the ACT government can't afford to throw lots of money at an AFL side like Tasmania is doing. At best the AFL might get a major upgrade of Manuka Oval and a reasonable yearly grant out of ACT government (even that would cause a shitshow in Canberra), anything more would require them to either delay the tram, which Labour can't allow for political reasons, or financial support from the federal government (good luck with that lol).

All of that makes Canberra much more easier said than done. Despite it not being ideal in the long term, Perth would be comparatively easy to setup and sustainable from day one. It just makes more sense given the circumstances.

 

[Wb1234]

I agree that the AFL wouldn't add a third team in Perth in an ideal world, but they wouldn't be expanding yet if things were ideal.

The only reason they're looking at Tasmania at all is because of political pressure. If Tassie can get the few hundred mil they need from the federal government then it'll put the AFL into an awkward position where they're forced to expand well before they're ready for it. Let's say Tasmania gets approved now and enter the comp somewhere between 2025-28, that would mean that the AFL has to find a 20th team to launch sometime in the early 2030s at the latest, which will highly restrict their options.

The AFL are still propping up both the previous expansion sides and will want to avoid taking on another expansion project like that, which rules out pretty much every potential expansion opportunity except for Canberra, Perth, and arguably some of the other major capitals if they're truly willing to explore selling a license to private owners.

The problem with Canberra is that we're going a long way to propping GWS up, and if GWS was to lose Canberra the AFL would need to find millions of dollars more revenue for the club to remain solvent (it would literally halve GWS's membership numbers to give you an idea). The AFL could afford to cover the difference if worst comes to worst, but the other clubs wouldn't be happy about it, especially considering that Canberra and Tasmania will need extra support as well.

On top of that, the ACT government can't afford to throw lots of money at an AFL side like Tasmania is doing. At best the AFL might get a major upgrade of Manuka Oval and a reasonable yearly grant out of ACT government (even that would cause a shitshow in Canberra), anything more would require them to either delay the tram, which Labour can't allow for political reasons, or financial support from the federal government (good luck with that lol).

All of that makes Canberra much more easier said than done. Despite it not being ideal in the long term, Perth would be comparatively easy to setup and sustainable from day one. It just makes more sense given the circumstances.

Reality is a number of Melbourne clubs aren’t viable and should’ve been made to relocate

the afl commission isn’t as strong as I thought

I strongly suspect a big reason they expanded is because the nrl did and they want to maintain their extra content over the nrl (last time they expanded to Gold Coast right after gallop added the titans)

 

[Pneuma]

Reality is a number of Melbourne clubs aren’t viable and should’ve been made to relocate

the afl commission isn’t as strong as I thought

I strongly suspect a big reason they expanded is because the nrl did and they want to maintain their extra content over the nrl (last time they expanded to Gold Coast right after gallop added the titans)

Don’t tell Mr Negative from Perth. Gil’s his idol and can do no wrong. Peter on the other hand ……

 

[The Great Dane]

Reality is a number of Melbourne clubs aren’t viable and should’ve been made to relocate

the afl commission isn’t as strong as I thought

At this point there are probably only two Melbourne sides in the AFL that would seriously struggle if the AFL got rid of the variable grant; North Melbourne and St Kilda.

The AFL has consistently tried to get North Melbourne, and St Kilda to a lesser extent, to relocate or merge since the 80s. I don't know as much about St Kilda, but the AFL and commission has pressured North Melbourne to relocate to all of Sydney, Canberra, the Gold Coast, and Tasmania at one time or another, and the only reason they haven't forced the issue is because they want to avoid public backlash similar to that that they endured when Fitzroy got the arse.

Furthermore, both North Melbourne and St Kilda would be amongst the larger clubs in the league if they played in the NRL. Which begs the question; what does it say about the NRL and ARLC if we consider the AFL commission weak for not doing more to deal with struggling clubs in Melbourne?

I strongly suspect a big reason they expanded is because the nrl did and they want to maintain their extra content over the nrl (last time they expanded to Gold Coast right after gallop added the titans)

The AFL had been preparing for a second club in SEQ more or less from the day the Bears relocated into Brisbane fulltime. That push really ramped up during the Lions threepeat, as a lot of people misread their success at the time as evidence of increased demand for Aussie Rules.

In other words the AFL was looking into another team in SEQ long before the Titans were even a twinkle in Michael Searle's eye.

 

[Pneuma]

At this point there are probably only two Melbourne sides in the AFL that would seriously struggle if the AFL got rid of the variable grant; North Melbourne and St Kilda.

The AFL has consistently tried to get North Melbourne, and St Kilda to a lesser extent, to relocate or merge since the 80s. I don't know as much about St Kilda, but the AFL and commission has pressured North Melbourne to relocate to all of Sydney, Canberra, the Gold Coast, and Tasmania at one time or another, and the only reason they haven't forced the issue is because they want to avoid public backlash similar to that that they endured when Fitzroy got the arse.

Furthermore, both North Melbourne and St Kilda would be amongst the larger clubs in the league if they played in the NRL. Which begs the question; what does it say about the NRL and ARLC if we consider the AFL commission weak for not doing more to deal with struggling clubs in Melbourne?

The AFL had been preparing for a second club in SEQ more or less from the day the Bears relocated into Brisbane fulltime. That push really ramped up during the Lions threepeat, as a lot of people misread their success at the time as evidence of increased demand for Aussie Rules.

In other words the AFL was looking into another team in SEQ long before the Titans were even a twinkle in Michael Searle's eye.

I can’t imagine a scenario where the afl will ever try to get the saints or Roos to merge or fold again. I think they’ll let them slowly die. If a Tasmanian side comes in north Melbourne immediately lose a cash flow lifeline from our idiotic government down here. That won’t help their prospects of survival at all.

 

[Wb1234]

Don’t tell Mr Negative from Perth. Gil’s his idol and can do no wrong. Peter on the other hand ……

At this point there are probably only two Melbourne sides in the AFL that would seriously struggle if the AFL got rid of the variable grant; North Melbourne and St Kilda.

The AFL has consistently tried to get North Melbourne, and St Kilda to a lesser extent, to relocate or merge since the 80s. I don't know as much about St Kilda, but the AFL and commission has pressured North Melbourne to relocate to all of Sydney, Canberra, the Gold Coast, and Tasmania at one time or another, and the only reason they haven't forced the issue is because they want to avoid public backlash similar to that that they endured when Fitzroy got the arse.

Furthermore, both North Melbourne and St Kilda would be amongst the larger clubs in the league if they played in the NRL. Which begs the question; what does it say about the NRL and ARLC if we consider the AFL commission weak for not doing more to deal with struggling clubs in Melbourne?

The AFL had been preparing for a second club in SEQ more or less from the day the Bears relocated into Brisbane fulltime. That push really ramped up during the Lions threepeat, as a lot of people misread their success at the time as evidence of increased demand for Aussie Rules.

In other words the AFL was looking into another team in SEQ long before the Titans were even a twinkle in Michael Searle's eye.

So wait

they move the bears from the Gold Coast not because it failed

but to start a team in Brisbane knowing they would bring them back to the Gold Coast 30 years later right after the arlc added a team there ?

Wow they are clairvoyants!

and Melbourne and st kilda are not sustainable as afl clubs. Yet the afl knows the value of tradition and owning Melbourne lock and key

 

[The Great Dane]

So wait

they move the bears from the Gold Coast not because it failed

but to start a team in Brisbane knowing they would bring them back to the Gold Coast 30 years later right after the arlc added a team there ?

Wow they are clairvoyants!

I said nothing of the sort, and you've had to twist what I said in the least charitable way possible to come to that conclusion.

BTW, the Bears only played on the Gold Coast at all because there wasn't a suitable stadium in Brisbane at the time. It was inevitable that what was ostensibly a Brisbane side would struggle playing out of Carrara, but they were rushed and ill thought out because the AFL were skint at the time and desperate for the licensing fees.

and Melbourne and st kilda are not sustainable as afl clubs. Yet the afl knows the value of tradition and owning Melbourne lock and key

Melbourne are one of smaller sides, but they're getting by alright for the time being.

 

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

North Melbourne Kangaroos are the smallest team in Melbourne by a mile, but they're no smaller than the Sydney clubs. Says a lot about our game.

 

[The Great Dane]

I can’t imagine a scenario where the afl will ever try to get the saints or Roos to merge or fold again. I think they’ll let them slowly die. If a Tasmanian side comes in north Melbourne immediately lose a cash flow lifeline from our idiotic government down here. That won’t help their prospects of survival at all.

It's only a year or so ago that there were machinations within the AFL establishment to try and pressure North Melbourne to relocate to Tasmania, and prevent the need to expand to 20 teams.

I'm not saying it's likely to happen anytime soon, but I wouldn't be surprised if the AFL forced other Melbourne clubs to relocate if the opportunity presented it's self.

You have to remember that they can't just force any club they want to relocate, or accept any other form of rationalisation, whenever they like. The club needs to come under their control before they can truly force the issue, and that more or less requires the club to go into administration like Fitzroy did.

The difference between now and back in Fitzroy's day is that the AFL was willing to single out Fitzroy as a club that needed to be removed from Melbourne, manipulated the situation to bankrupt them after multiple failed attempts to get them to willingly accept rationalisation, and made a display of them to the other clubs by punishing them for their insolence by selling all their most valuable assets to a rival club instead of allowing them to merge with North Melbourne as they wished to do at the time.

People always forget that Fitzroy didn't really merge with Brisbane, their assets were sold to Brisbane, and that the AFL had tried to get them to relocate to Brisbane and merge with the Bears multiple times before that.

 

[titoelcolombiano]

So it is going to work like sunlight on a vampire and burn away all the people whom are naturally inclined to take an interest in Aussie Rules. . .

Those people aren't going to cease to exist because of peer pressure and airy-fairy bullshit about Brisbane being a "RL city" anymore than metalheads and country music fans are going to cease to exist because there's a greater variety of pop stars on offer at any one time.

Yes you can generalise about a population group, but preference is subjective, and in a population as large as Brisbane's there will always be sizeable groups whom prefer alternatives to the mainstream culture. It just is what it is.

The AFL is also a relatively new product to Brisbane, only having been around for about a generation and a half (arguably less than that). The mere fact that it's an option at all will probably lead to it taking a larger share of the market within younger generations, and it's impossible to truly know how the culture will adapt over time. For all we know RL in Brisbane could be some mismanagement and a bit of bad luck away from going into a steep decline that Aussie Rules, and/or other sports, could capitalise on.

Nothing is too big to fail so to speak, and if Baseball can go from 'America's favourite pastime' to a distant second behind Football with a couple generations then any sport can. Most would argue that it's been behind Basketball for at least a couple decades now as well, but I digress.

AFL has made little headway in Brisbane if you really dig into it. A second RL team (doubling the RL offering for the next generation) is absolutely going to put pressure on AFL and the already struggling Lions

 

[titoelcolombiano]

Dolphins will get $18million ish grant this year, GWS around $23.5million. Its hardly a massive gap! In fact the avg club grant for NRL clubs is quickly approaching the avg AFL club grant level.

AFL have a baseline distribution (2021) of $10.4mill, NRL will have one of $18milion ish this year.
Difference is they have a variable payment above the baseline payment depending on needs of club to create equity. They dont give lots of money to rich clubs in order that they can support clubs that have lower revenue streams.

$5.5m extra, plus the Lions, plus the Suns, plus the Swans in perpetuity

 

[titoelcolombiano]

And adding another basket case in Tasmania

and the arlc could’ve chosen easts who are almost as rich as the dolphins

Yeah Easts are a great club, I think they will get their shot down the line.

 

[The Great Dane]

AFL has made little headway in Brisbane if you really dig into it. A second RL team (doubling the RL offering for the next generation) is absolutely going to put pressure on AFL and the already struggling Lions

Say what you will about the 'struggling' Lions, but they're sustainable and not going anywhere anytime soon.

It's more likely than not that a larger percentage of Brisbanites born now will follow the AFL over NRL than in past generations as a mere fact of it being an accessible option, and those numbers will continue to increase with each future generation until they reach market saturation. There's also very little that the NRL, or RL in general, can do to directly impact that outside of work in the grassroots and waiting for them to make mistakes and capitalising on it.

BTW, the 'struggling' Lions had more members than the Broncos last year, have a solid average attendance depending on results, and they made a profit in 2021, so I'm not really sure how we're defining 'struggling' at this point. Is it just because they get a larger grant from the AFL than the Broncos do from the NRL?
A larger grant that the AFL sees as a long term investment into growing their fanbase in Brisbane/Queensland BTW, and which has worked so far as Aussie Rules is bigger now in Brisbane/SEQ than it's ever been, and has a steady growth rate.

 

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

Fumbleball is growing in Brisbane. There's independent Catholic schools that promote fumbleball and rugby union ahead of rugby league. The ARLC and QRL need to wake up and raise the profile of the game across the Catholic high schools.

 

[The Great Dane]

Fumbleball is growing in Brisbane. There's independent Catholic schools that promote fumbleball and rugby union ahead of rugby league. The ARLC and QRL need to wake up and raise the profile of the game across the Catholic high schools.

Those organisations would have to allow RL to be played in their schools before that could happen, and good luck getting them to agree to that lol.

Maybe RL will have an opportunity to grow in the private school system once some more of the snobby old traditionalist types have died off, but it's not going to happen anytime soon.

 

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

Those organisations would have to allow RL to be played in their schools before that could happen, and good luck getting them to agree to that lol.

Maybe RL will have an opportunity to grow in the private school system once some more of the snobby old traditionalist types have died off, but it's not going to happen anytime soon.

My nephews attended an independent Catholic school in southern Brisbane that plays rugby league, rugby union and Aussie rules. I was shocked to see so many kids and teachers referencing Ron Barassi at the graduation ceremony. The film clip they ran of the graduating students playing sport over the years mostly focused on rugby union and Aussie rules. It was a real eye opener and made me wonder how much the AFL invests in school competitions.

 

[Perth Red]

$5.5m extra, plus the Lions, plus the Suns, plus the Swans in perpetuity

When you’ve got the revenue you can afford the investment. Swans get one of the lowest grants, well below what Sydney nrl clubs get in grants now.

 

[mongoose]

AFL has made little headway in Brisbane if you really dig into it. A second RL team (doubling the RL offering for the next generation) is absolutely going to put pressure on AFL and the already struggling Lions

I dunno man, I've lived in Brisbane since the mid 90s and back then AFL was a joke in QLD, you would never admit to following it. The Brisbane Bears certainly did nothing for the sports profile up here. These days it's pretty common to follow the Broncos/NRL club and the Lions. They get decent crowds and if they are losing money every year then the club probably has a poor business model, their expenses must be way too high. The Suns are pretty irrelevant, I will admit that. The Gold Coast is very much RL heartland despite the Titans not having much success. There is a large community of Victorian retirees on the Gold Coast but they all follow their Victorian AFL club, not the Suns.

 

[Wb1234]

Say what you will about the 'struggling' Lions, but they're sustainable and not going anywhere anytime soon.

It's more likely than not that a larger percentage of Brisbanites born now will follow the AFL over NRL than in past generations as a mere fact of it being an accessible option, and those numbers will continue to increase with each future generation until they reach market saturation. There's also very little that the NRL, or RL in general, can do to directly impact that outside of work in the grassroots and waiting for them to make mistakes and capitalising on it.

BTW, the 'struggling' Lions had more members than the Broncos last year, have a solid average attendance depending on results, and they made a profit in 2021, so I'm not really sure how we're defining 'struggling' at this point. Is it just because they get a larger grant from the AFL than the Broncos do from the NRL?
A larger grant that the AFL sees as a long term investment into growing their fanbase in Brisbane/Queensland BTW, and which has worked so far as Aussie Rules is bigger now in Brisbane/SEQ than it's ever been, and has a steady growth rate.

They aren’t sustainable

the only afl expansion club which is sustainable is the swans

the afl will be forced to tip in more and more money into keeping the lions and suns alive because of the dolphins

 

[The Great Dane]

They aren’t sustainable

the only afl expansion club which is sustainable is the swans

The AFL could put the Lions on the median grant tomorrow and they'd be fine.

Yes they'd need to tighten their belts a bit, pull back on some their promotional and grassroots activity, stuff like that, but they'd get by.