NRL's growth mindset points to 18th team. And it ain't Perth.

[The Mad Hatter]

At the end of the day, the most viable options are the same as they’ve always been : Brisbane 2, NZ 2, Perth, Adelaide.

Surely, after all these years, the NRL has a whole of game road map to introduce these regions in to a strong comp?

The stumbling block, as always, is Sydney.

 

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

At the end of the day, the most viable options are the same as they’ve always been : Brisbane 2, NZ 2, Perth, Adelaide.

Surely, after all these years, the NRL has a whole of game road map to introduce these regions in to a strong comp?

The stumbling block, as always, is Sydney.

Brisbane 2 and 3 are viable as there are 3 strong bids capable of funding sustainable NRL clubs in the world's 2nd largest RL city.

Perth has the population, a strong bid and is growing the game from the bottom up. It is ready for a team.

NZ 2 is a risky option at this time. The only major metro area in NZ isn't that much bigger than Adelaide and already has a team that's struggling to survive. The current team draws low ratings, around 30k from what I read in an article quoting Colin Smith, so the demand just isn't there.

Adelaide is well at the bottom of the queue. Average ratings for Adelaide are around 10k or lower. Its RL community is tiny and it is smaller than Auckland with 2 juggernaut AwFuL clubs that make the Auckland Blues RU franchise look small in RU mad NZ.

 

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

To make it worthwhile to news ltd that would require the new team to draw a significant (20k ish) amount of new subscribers to sky sports, is that likely, especially over the next 7 years as more people switch to cheaper streaming options.

Warriors only draw 30k on Sky. A viable 2nd NZ team that draws money for the broadcasters is many years away from becoming reality.

 

[flippikat]

At the end of the day, the most viable options are the same as they’ve always been : Brisbane 2, NZ 2, Perth, Adelaide.

Surely, after all these years, the NRL has a whole of game road map to introduce these regions in to a strong comp?

The stumbling block, as always, is Sydney.

Precisely. The thing we need is a roadmap to getting those 4 teams added.

When does each team come in?
What's the order of admittance?
How do we lay the groundwork for each of them?

Then we need to ask whether Sydney needs more rationalisation..

 

[MugaB]

Precisely. The thing we need is a roadmap to getting those 4 teams added.

When does each team come in?
What's the order of admittance?
How do we lay the groundwork for each of them?

Then we need to ask whether Sydney needs more rationalisation..

I think we can only afford one team in "Sydney" to relocate, and it has to be on their own valition, not by force, or because they've gone broke, moving a broke team to an expansion area, will only be looked upon as pity to the city that they go to, needs to be a embraced as the clubs own agenda to grace that city. Otherwise better off starting fresh with a new franchise

 

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

I think we can only afford one team in "Sydney" to relocate, and it has to be on their own valition, not by force, or because they've gone broke, moving a broke team to an expansion area, will only be looked upon as pity to the city that they go to, needs to be a embraced as the clubs own agenda to grace that city. Otherwise better off starting fresh with a new franchise

Sydney is both a strength and a weakness for the game. It's Australia's largest and most prestigious city, so having a large RL footprint in it is vital. Where it gets tricky is expanding into under represented and unrepresented areas when over 50% of the teams are in Sydney and the broadcasters only want 16 teams and the ARLC wants 18. If we want the game to be strong nationally under a 16/18 team system then we're going to need four Sydney teams to merge or at least 2 of them to bite the bullet and relocate or fold. None of these things will be done while AwFuL is throwing bucketloads of money at the grassroots in Sydney, so the game is destined to remain under represented in Brisbane and unrepresented in Adelaide and Perth.

 

[Perth Red]

Sydney isnt a problem if the commission grows a set and changes everything to the benefit of the whole game. , afl hasn’t let the oversaturation of melbourne stop it’s ambitious national footprint strategy. The first step has to be having an independent commission with no club or nswrl/qrl influence. Until we get that we will never be able to make decisions for the good of the sport.

 

[Bring back John Fifita]

Adelaide is well at the bottom of the queue. Average ratings for Adelaide are around 10k or lower. Its RL community is tiny and it is smaller than Auckland with 2 juggernaut AwFuL clubs that make the Auckland Blues RU franchise look small in RU mad NZ.

Adelaide hasn’t had a team in over 20 years, yet draws 16k - 20k+ crowds to storm roosters games each year.

Adelaide is closer to the Sydney metro region than all other potential expansion cities except Brisbane 2.

Adelaide can accomodate all match times of the existing draw

Adelaide only has 2 x competitors in men’s winter team sport (crows n power)

Ratings for NRL in Adelaide is not really different to that for neural AFL games in Sydney. And Sydney had two AFL teams, Adelaide none for years..

Adelaide has a small juniors participation absolutely. But no one has bothered farming here from the NRL or its predecessors.... The Rams did have a junior academy for all of one season before they got knifed by the NRL.

Side note - the current head of the Irish Rugby League is a former AFL player who was recruited by the Rams to their academy in 1997.

All signs point to the Rams headbutting their way to the front of that queue!!!

 

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

Sydney isnt a problem if the commission grows a set and changes everything to the benefit of the whole game. , afl hasn’t let the oversaturation of melbourne stop it’s ambitious national footprint strategy. The first step has to be having an independent commission with no club or nswrl/qrl influence. Until we get that we will never be able to make decisions for the good of the sport.

AwFuL only has 2 teams that aren't based in capital cities.

NRL has 4.5 teams in regional Australia and 1 in NZ.

The broadcasters don't want a 9th game.

 

[Perth Red]

AwFuL only has 2 teams that aren't based in capital cities.

NRL has 4.5 teams in regional Australia and 1 in NZ.

The broadcasters don't want a 9th game.

Pretty sure the broadcasters didn't want the Giants and Suns but when you make decisions for the long term good of the game and your strategy then broadcasters dont get the final vote!

Afl isnt more regional teams as the AFL states have very small regional centres, certainly none that are capable of hosting an AFL club successfully (Geelong aside). When you consider the NRL regional teams even NSW and Qlnd big regional centres have struggled to sustain clubs (Steelers couldnt survive alone, GC various failures, Knights went bust, Gosford came and went) Only the Cowboys and raiders have survived without some turmoil (and cowboys needed News Ltd ownership in early days to survive)

 

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

Pretty sure the broadcasters didn't want the Giants and Suns but when you make decisions for the long term good of the game and your strategy then broadcasters dont get the final vote!

Afl isnt more regional teams as the AFL states have very small regional centres, certainly none that are capable of hosting an AFL club successfully (Geelong aside). When you consider the NRL regional teams even NSW and Qlnd big regional centres have struggled to sustain clubs (Steelers couldnt survive alone, GC various failures, Knights went bust, Gosford came and went) Only the Cowboys and raiders have survived without some turmoil (and cowboys needed News Ltd ownership in early days to survive)

AwFuL is given more leeway to do what they want.

 

[flippikat]

AwFuL only has 2 teams that aren't based in capital cities.

NRL has 4.5 teams in regional Australia and 1 in NZ.

The broadcasters don't want a 9th game.

Good points.. and AFL had an easy choice for expansion, because apart from Geelong they just don't have mid-sized cities in their heartland like how the NRL has Canberra, Townsville, Newcastle & Woollongong. So putting 2 teams in Perth & two teams in Adelaide was a no-brainer.

Sure, if the NRL ditched the Raiders, Cowboys, Knights & Dragons we could have Brisbane 2, Perth, Adelaide & NZ 2 (probably the 4 next desirable expansions) and STILL have only 16 teams but that's never gonna happen.

[Edit - under that scenario, you could then add a 2nd Melbourne team and a 2nd Perth team, and have a very similar footprint to the AFL with 18 teams - same number as the AFL.
The only clubs the AFL would have that NRL wouldn't would be a 2nd Adelaide team (unlikely) and Geelong (even more unlikely, given this scenario ditches Newcastle, Canberra & Townsville)
The NRL will never leave the mid-size cities, but just goes to show the difference in approach.]

It's a strength of the NRL that it represents the heartland so well, but it also means the competition will just HAVE to be bigger than AFL to get a similar reach - unless Sydney is restructured.

 

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

Good points.. and AFL had an easy choice for expansion, because apart from Geelong they just don't have mid-sized cities in their heartland like how the NRL has Canberra, Townsville, Newcastle & Woollongong. So putting 2 teams in Perth & two teams in Adelaide was a no-brainer.

Sure, if the NRL ditched the Raiders, Cowboys, Knights & Dragons we could have Brisbane 2, Perth, Adelaide & NZ 2 (probably the 4 next desirable expansions) and STILL have only 16 teams but that's never gonna happen.

[Edit - under that scenario, you could then add a 2nd Melbourne team and a 2nd Perth team, and have a very similar footprint to the AFL with 18 teams - same number as the AFL.
The only clubs the AFL would have that NRL wouldn't would be a 2nd Adelaide team (unlikely) and Geelong (even more unlikely, given this scenario ditches Newcastle, Canberra & Townsville)
The NRL will never leave the mid-size cities, but just goes to show the difference in approach.]

It's a strength of the NRL that it represents the heartland so well, but it also means the competition will just HAVE to be bigger than AFL to get a similar reach - unless Sydney is restructured.

Expanding into Adelaide and Perth will require a miracle as there are too many parties opposing it. ARLC only want 18 teams. Broadcasters want 16. PVL has to keep all 9 Sydney clubs to prevent a revolt. Clubs won't want a 20 or 22 team competition. The only way forward is to put Adelaide and Perth teams in the NRLW, Queensland Cup or NSW Cup and let them grow from the bottom up. By having them in these leagues they will be pushing their case for inclusion in the NRL while bringing new fans to the game.

 

[flippikat]

Expanding into Adelaide and Perth will require a miracle as there are too many parties opposing it. ARLC only want 18 teams. Broadcasters want 16. PVL has to keep all 9 Sydney clubs to prevent a revolt. Clubs won't want a 20 or 22 team competition. The only way forward is to put Adelaide and Perth teams in the NRLW, Queensland Cup or NSW Cup and let them grow from the bottom up. By having them in these leagues they will be pushing their case for inclusion in the NRL while bringing new fans to the game.

The worrying thing is that the onus always seems to be on Perth & Adelaide to "prove" they can bring a extra dimension to the game (basically revenue)... when it's already pretty clear they can - and do - bring plenty to EVERY OTHER SPORTS LEAGUE.

 

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

The worrying thing is that the onus always seems to be on Perth & Adelaide to "prove" they can bring a extra dimension to the game (basically revenue)... when it's already pretty clear they can - and do - bring plenty to EVERY OTHER SPORTS LEAGUE.

Perth is already producing players. Imagine how many more Western Australians would make it into the NRL if they had a team?

 

[LeagueXIII]

Precisely. The thing we need is a roadmap to getting those 4 teams added.

When does each team come in?
What's the order of admittance?
How do we lay the groundwork for each of them?

Then we need to ask whether Sydney needs more rationalisation..

No Sydney doesnt need rationalisation it needs strengthening.

 

[Perth Red]

Frustrating to see the force selling out for tonights reduced capacity game in perth. Whilst rugby league dithers union is rebuilding itself here.

 

[taipan]

Frustrating to see the force selling out for tonights reduced capacity game in perth. Whilst rugby league dithers union is rebuilding itself here.

As the NRL is planning on an extra team in Brisbane (TBD this year)0before they have a new deal with FTA stations and after a large chop into their monies ,especially after the COVID debacle they aren't dithering.
Only someone fixated with AFL(who can't even decide on a Tasmanian team and stuffed up NZ expansion) and an axe to grind, would believe that.

 

[T-Boon]

No Sydney doesnt need rationalisation it needs strengthening.

We need both.
We need a couple of sensible relocations of clubs to big empty cities We need to move some of the Sydney teams to other parts of Sydeny and we need a big sydney marketing drive.

 

[flippikat]

We need both.
We need a couple of sensible relocations of clubs to big empty cities We need to move some of the Sydney teams to other parts of Sydeny and we need a big sydney marketing drive.

Precisely that.

If we have a combination of some relocations AND genuine effort by the remaining Sydney clubs to expand their supporter base outside their suburban origins, the game benefits IMMENSELY.