NRL's growth mindset points to 18th team. And it ain't Perth.

[T-Boon]

Based on trends of the past decade, AFL participation in QLD and NSW will surpass RL within 20 years.

More kids play RL touch footy in victoria than kids play ozkick in nsw.

 

[taipan]

we’ve been in a position to plan for introduction of perth and brisbane2 teams since 2013. Covid just the latest reason to dither some more.

Who said we were in a position ? You?
The code took on a women's comp in that time, made loss making intl matches ,took on a two ref system(now changed).The TV ratings for the Force have not helped the Union's TV income one iota.

Ensuring all current clubs were sustainable was a top priority, including the Storm,Titans and Sharks and the Warriors.Flogging off the Titans and Knights which the NRL had taken over.High paying execs ,who hardly set the world on fire,and left.Money spent on various community issues such as Indigenous Health and Educational Issues
We also had CEOs of varying capacity to contend with.

Yes COVID the same issue, you tended to treat as a minor irritation.nothing to see here, and still having an impact sheesh.

No comment about the dithering of the AFL in their approach to Tasmania, where a Govt is prepared to back a team.Nor the dithering in the past on rationalising Vic teams, because they fought back.No commentary about the loss making on GWS and Sunburns, teams that draw stuff all Nthn State ratings.Nor the a*se handed to them when they tired in NZ.
They(NRL) will make a call on the 17th team from Qld this year, no other CEO or Chairman has put himself out on a limb to say they want it, not even your Welsh Banker.

 

[LeagueXIII]

That is a bit dramatic. It would hurt some people a bit. RL is a bad sport if it can’t do sensible things and survive.

It can, killing and relocating Sydney clubs is not sensible...that's why they aren't doing it.

 

[LeagueXIII]

I think any Sydney team that relocates should get extra home games by way of getting to play some sydney away games at their traditional ground. Eg: Southern Sharks out of Adelaide with 3 sydney games at Cronulla.

Seriously? Southern Sharks out of Adelaide. I'm a Cronulla supporter....that would end it for me.

 

[LeagueXIII]

not really, you’ll negatively impact the clubs fanbases involved and the rest of the game will move on. You think anyone cares anymore that the bears aren’t in the nrl other than old time bears fans?

but won’t happen so no need to get upset at hypotheticals

And is league flourishing in northern Sydney like it once did. What did we gain from that?

 

[LeagueXIII]

when we have melbourne 2, perth and Adelaide in the nrl it can genuinely start to consider itself a national game, until then it looks like an east coast competition. Wh6 does it matter? Look at the revenue gap between afl and nrl, that’s why it matters.

Melbourne 2 won't happen in our lifetime. RL can still gain national sponsors without Adelaide and Perth, Ive said it before.

RL has been handicapped by SL for 20yrs hopefully now they are partners with Newscorp we can start to reap the benefits.....hopefully.

 

[taipan]

And is league flourishing in northern Sydney like it once did. What did we gain from that?

Exactly.
Know guys who were devoted Bear's fans switched to union when they were flicked.And I understand the Swans ATT mentioned they had some rl converts, whether the is BS can't confirm. They had a decent following ATT in a union area.
Especially an area that is more upper income.
Although looking at union crowds now for the Tattas, think half their fans have shunted off to watch club union.

 

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

Killing Sydney clubs will only weaken the game, and erode its main strength, which is domination of the media in Sydney. A strong NRL is better than an expanded, weaker one. That what PVL thinks anyway. I can’t stand him but I do agree with him. A second Melbourne team would be a disaster and would not add a cent to media rights. They would make the GWS Giants appear like Man U.
The reality is that Rugby League IS an east coast competition. The $$$ gap between AFL and NRL will never be closed. AFL is and has always been played and supported in ‘enemy territory’ (Qld & NSW) in decent numbers, the games go for 40% longer and the crowds have always been more than double that of RL - for over 100 years. RL at community level is virtually non existent outside those two states. All of that is unlikely to ever change.
But the game CAN become stronger, but the kind of growth you want PR will not make the game more popular, it will send it broke.
Go with the strength. Brisbane 2, then Brisbane 3. Smaller, better stadiums in Sydney that are full every week. No more regular season matches at ANZ once SFS is built. Lots of ways to strengthen the game of RL.

You make good points.

I think smaller stadiums played in front of a capacity crowd are definitely better than large empty stands. Redcliffe's ground might be too small, but if they can break even and make a profit from selling the joint out every game then it it's better than playing at Lang Park in front of 18k fans at a loss. Over time they can upgrade one of the grandstands to bring capacity up to 15k.

I think there is room for some growth in Perth, especially amongst the migrants from the east coast and NZ. It'll never be at the level of Queensland and NSW, but we could bring their numbers up to 10k. If that produces 5 or 10 NRL calibre players then the game is stronger.

Melbourne 2 would be a disaster and cannibalise the Storm after Bellamy had left the joint.

Brisbane 2 and 3 does strengthen the game.

 

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

Those casual ‘swinging’ fans are the one that you actually need to keep. Like at any election 40% will always vote liberal and 40% votes labor (read AFL & NRL), so it is the swinging 20% that actually matter. And that, is where the AFL are currently winning the ‘war’. TV ratings are pretty much identical for each code, yet the AFL receive significantly more (partly due to their longer matches). Lose those swinging fans and the NRL is in trouble.
Based on trends of the past decade, AFL participation in QLD and NSW will surpass RL within 20 years. Another generation and TV ratings might follow. Getting rid of Sydney teams will only gift the AFL more kids. The priority needs to be strengthening the game at grassroots level in the heartland. Lose the kids of Sydney and Brisbane and it won’t matter if you have teams in WA and SA, the game will go broke.

QRL has over 65k registered players. AFLQ has 20k.

I think RL needs to adapt to the changing landscape to get more parents to sign their kids up to junior RL. We need to make the game faster so that the fatties are driven out of it and the average sized kids have a chance. Smaller bodies = lesser impact on collision = less injuries.

 

[LeagueXIII]

Those casual ‘swinging’ fans are the one that you actually need to keep. Like at any election 40% will always vote liberal and 40% votes labor (read AFL & NRL), so it is the swinging 20% that actually matter. And that, is where the AFL are currently winning the ‘war’. TV ratings are pretty much identical for each code, yet the AFL receive significantly more (partly due to their longer matches). Lose those swinging fans and the NRL is in trouble.
Based on trends of the past decade, AFL participation in QLD and NSW will surpass RL within 20 years. Another generation and TV ratings might follow. Getting rid of Sydney teams will only gift the AFL more kids. The priority needs to be strengthening the game at grassroots level in the heartland. Lose the kids of Sydney and Brisbane and it won’t matter if you have teams in WA and SA, the game will go broke.

Very true...it was those swinging fans we won over under Arko and Quayle which made us no1....they are also the people we have lost since the war. AFL thanks us every day.

 

[Perth Red]

Who said we were in a position ? You?
.

yep.

 

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

Perth Oval is a laughing stock.

https://www.news.com.au/sport/rugby...a/news-story/71aabcf1caee4afdc93e7e8c351a099e

 

[Perth Red]

Killing Sydney clubs will only weaken the game, and erode its main strength, which is domination of the media in Sydney. A strong NRL is better than an expanded, weaker one. That what PVL thinks anyway. I can’t stand him but I do agree with him. A second Melbourne team would be a disaster and would not add a cent to media rights. They would make the GWS Giants appear like Man U.
The reality is that Rugby League IS an east coast competition. The $$$ gap between AFL and NRL will never be closed. AFL is and has always been played and supported in ‘enemy territory’ (Qld & NSW) in decent numbers, the games go for 40% longer and the crowds have always been more than double that of RL - for over 100 years. RL at community level is virtually non existent outside those two states. All of that is unlikely to ever change.
But the game CAN become stronger, but the kind of growth you want PR will not make the game more popular, it will send it broke.
Go with the strength. Brisbane 2, then Brisbane 3. Smaller, better stadiums in Sydney that are full every week. No more regular season matches at ANZ once SFS is built. Lots of ways to strengthen the game of RL.

By the early 90’s RL in WA was booming, over 10k registered players, two league journos employed in the local media, 26k turning up for the reds first game. And that was before we had mass immigration from RL regions to Perth. To say RL can’t be successful and grow outside of two states it grew up in is just nonsense. Yes it’s hard work, yes it’s long term investment, yes it needs leadership and strategy but it is very possible as afl is showing. It’s an east coast sport not because of any strange phenomenon that limits its interest, but because the game has lacked vision, leadership and ambition since the early 90’s.

 

[mongoose]

Killing Sydney clubs will only weaken the game, and erode its main strength, which is domination of the media in Sydney. A strong NRL is better than an expanded, weaker one. That what PVL thinks anyway. I can’t stand him but I do agree with him. A second Melbourne team would be a disaster and would not add a cent to media rights. They would make the GWS Giants appear like Man U.
The reality is that Rugby League IS an east coast competition. The $$$ gap between AFL and NRL will never be closed. AFL is and has always been played and supported in ‘enemy territory’ (Qld & NSW) in decent numbers, the games go for 40% longer and the crowds have always been more than double that of RL - for over 100 years. RL at community level is virtually non existent outside those two states. All of that is unlikely to ever change.
But the game CAN become stronger, but the kind of growth you want PR will not make the game more popular, it will send it broke.
Go with the strength. Brisbane 2, then Brisbane 3. Smaller, better stadiums in Sydney that are full every week. No more regular season matches at ANZ once SFS is built. Lots of ways to strengthen the game of RL.

Saturating QLD and NSW with more teams is not going to turn people off other codes. Do you realize League already has saturation media in QLD with just 3 teams? Doesn't stop people from following the Lions.
Has League grown in Sydney in the past 20 years with 9 teams? if anything it's shrunk. The demographics of Sydney have changed dramatically over the decades. Inner suburbs becoming more and more gentrified and unaffordable, many suburbs inhabited with majority of people who don't speak English as a first language now. Having a team in a place like Perth or Adelaide is going to grow the game more than doubling down on propping up suburban clubs who can't grow their fanbase in their current locations.

 

[taipan]

yep.

The reliable "sauce."

 

[taipan]

Very true...it was those swinging fans we won over under Arko and Quayle which made us no1....they are also the people we have lost since the war. AFL thanks us every day.

The SL War was the gift for AFL that keeps on giving, draining the ARL assets, turning long term fans off and also their families, flicking teams, joint ventures ,and News owning half )(meaning 1/ 2 share profits)it all adds up.
Court cases from 1995-1996, and a terrible 1997 with 2 comps an absolute disaster.
Few understand the real impact, certainly they do short term but not long term.

The AFL seized the moment, where the opening had been created and poured loads of dosh into the new markets.Money which they had, and which the new entity ie NRL did not.
The Swan's CEO a few years back, admitted the SL war helped that club get a big leg up in Sydney.

I repeat one more time, prior to 1995 the code had $20-25m in the Bank, that went down the tube.The years that News and the ARL shared profits ,meant large sums went to News and not to grassroots or expansion.The AFL did not have to contend with any of that sh*t.

It's like 2 guys having different Super funds ,both starting with the same amount, but one earning average 10% return over 20 years, the other 4%.Who ends up retiring to live easier?

 

[Perth Red]

I’d actually say the post SL peace was as bad if not worse than the actual war. 98-2012 the game floundered along getting shafted by its media partners who were joint owners and an ineffective ARL that struggled to achieve anything. The rationalisation post 97 was dire and set the game back decades, instead of making some really long term hard decisions then they fluffed around dropping perth, adelaide and Brisbane2, making the soft choices in Sydney, only good thing they did was bring in melbourne. At the same time afl was getting stronger and stronger, making some tough decision on things like variable grant payments and ticket taxes to give itself the revenue to sustain an all out national growth strategy and refusing to let tv dictate to it.

Since 2012 the excuses are over. Independent commission, massive revenue increases as much opportunity to develop a national strategy as afl had in the 90’s yet we dither along. Knee jerk reaction after another, strategy at the whim of the current chairman, throwing money at poorly run clubs in the vein hope they’ll sort themselves out, still no long term plans for the game. We are nearly a decade into the independence of the game, at some point you have to stop blaming the past for current poor performance.

Oh well such is the life of a rl fan, no one could ever say our game has led from the front in its administration sadly,

 

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

Saturating QLD and NSW with more teams is not going to turn people off other codes. Do you realize League already has saturation media in QLD with just 3 teams? Doesn't stop people from following the Lions.
Has League grown in Sydney in the past 20 years with 9 teams? if anything it's shrunk. The demographics of Sydney have changed dramatically over the decades. Inner suburbs becoming more and more gentrified and unaffordable, many suburbs inhabited with majority of people who don't speak English as a first language now. Having a team in a place like Perth or Adelaide is going to grow the game more than doubling down on propping up suburban clubs who can't grow their fanbase in their current locations.

The same thing is happening in Brisbane. All those suburbs within 10 KM of the CBD are full of snobs and high rise apartments. Not exactly a good place for a working class RL fan to raise a family. I cannot see how 2 teams based in the inner suburbs of Brisbane, both playing at Lang Park, will cater to the needs of RL fans who live in the outskirts. It makes sense to have 1 in Moreton Bay, 1 in Logan or southern suburbs like Nathan.

Adelaide and Perth should be in the plans too. I'd put Perth in now and grow the game at the grassroots level in Adelaide and take representative games plus Magic Round to Adelaide Oval just to see just how much interest there is in the game.

I think Sydney should look at strategic mergers to help clubs grow a larger fanbase over a wider area. Imagine how big the Bulldogs would be if they combined with Western Suburbs to form the Western Sydney Bulldogs, covering South Western Sydney?

City of Canterbury-Bankstown
346,302
City of Campbelltown
157,006
City of Liverpool
204,326
City of Fairfield
210,612
Camden Council
78,218
Wollondilly Shire
48,519

Total
1,044,983​

That's almost as big as the Adelaide metropolitan area!

Sharks and St George merge to become Southern Sydney Sharks.

Georges River Council
146,841
Bayside Council
156,058
Sutherland
218,464

Total
523,363

Add Illawarra?

Illawarra
311,317

Southern Sydney + Illawarra = 832,680​

Easts, Souths and Manly to become the Northern Sydney Rabbitohs. Green, red and white.

North Shore

Hornsby Shire
142,667
Ku-ring-gai Council
118,053
Mosman Council
28,475
North Sydney Council
67,658
City of Willoughby
74,302
Municipality of Hunter's Hill
13,199
City of Ryde
116,302

Total
560,656

Northern Beaches
252,878

Northern Beaches + North Shore = 813,534​

So 5 teams.

Northern Sydney Rabbitohs
Parramatta Eels
Penrith Panthers
Southern Sydney Sharks
Western Sydney Bulldogs

Older fans will be pissed off, but younger people who are born after the merger won't give a stuff about it. How many kids born in northern Sydney from 1999 until now are pissed off that the Bears are no longer in the NRL?

You can add Brisbane 2 and 3, NZ 2 and Perth to make it a 16 team competition under this model.

Sea Eagles, Dragons and Tigers brands to be retained with Brisbane Tigers (Easts Tigers), New Zealand Sea Eagles, West Coast Dragons,

 

[Bring back John Fifita]

RL can still gain national sponsors without Adelaide and Perth, Ive said it before.

Like who....

who are the blue-chip major sponsors of Sydney clubs in the NRL??

Steggles?
Laundy Hotels?
URM?
Oak?
Bryden Lawyers?
aqualand?
Aland?
Whoever is sponsoring the Sharks this year??

Some of those a decent sized companies, some with a “National presence”, but blue-chip?


If they were, many of these these clubs wouldn’t need another 12 bumper-sticker sponsors all over the rest of their jerseys n shorts... which (along with looking ugly IMO) dilutes the impact a sponsor has on a jersey.. And the majority of these bumper stickers are little-known, regionally isolated businesses.

So yes. There are plenty of sponsors, the vast majority arent blue chip or national at all.

Big name / blue chip / National sponsors have deserted the NRL in a big way, and particularly the Sydney clubs. St George Bank is possibly the only blue chip sponsor of a Sydney club this year...

Kia, Toyota, Vodafone, are blue-chip, big corporates... And international companies. All sponsoring one-team-towns outside NSW.

And while Telstra sponsors the comp, Sydney clubs on the whole don’t attract national sponsors these days, especially compared to the one-team-towns.

 

[flippikat]

I’d actually say the post SL peace was as bad if not worse than the actual war. 98-2012 the game floundered along getting shafted by its media partners who were joint owners and an ineffective ARL that struggled to achieve anything. The rationalisation post 97 was dire and set the game back decades, instead of making some really long term hard decisions then they fluffed around dropping perth, adelaide and Brisbane2, making the soft choices in Sydney, only good thing they did was bring in melbourne.

You're absolutely right. The peace deal did FAR more damage than the war, and in late 1997-98, a truly national NRL was salvageable from the wreckage of the war.

Just look at the lineup of teams in 1998, the first year of the NRL with 20 teams competing:

3 Queensland teams:
Brisbane Broncos
Gold Coast Chargers
NQ Cowboys

4 Interstate/NZ teams:
Adelaide Rams
Auckland Warriors
Canberra Raiders
Melbourne Storm

3 Regional NSW teams
Illawarra Steelers
North Sydney Bears (*moving to Central Coast)
Newcastle Knights

10 Sydney teams
Balmain Tigers
Canterbury Bulldogs
Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks
Manly-Warringah Sea-Eagles
Parramatta Eels
Penrith Panthers
South Sydney Rabbitohs
St George Dragons
Sydney Roosters
Western Suburbs Magpies

Now, yes.. that IS a Sydney-heavy competition.. but if the NRL just held off on Melbourne (keeping Perth in the competition instead) then Melbourne could have been a relocation destination for a Sydney club.. or a relocation/merger with the Rams (ala Brisbane Lions in AFL) to open a spot for the Storm.

The whole thing was screwed by self-interest and short term thinking.