NRL's growth mindset points to 18th team. And it ain't Perth.

[Jamberoo]

according to the AFL participation is booming in the NRL states
but..as we all know
a lot of that is kids being dragged to auskick clinics at school & girls

smoke n mirrors
the AFL are past masters at it

Google is our friend here. There are 15 times more teams in actual competitions. Factor in that AFL teams have 18 players and RL 13, and that equals 20 times more players. I am not factoring AFL spin on Auskick or junior clinics numbers at all.

Some parts of the ‘RL states’ - Canberra, Gold Coast, Northern NSW, Riverina, Cairns, have as many or more AFL players as RL players. If you don’t count Touch as actual RL, then the gap in female participation is even bigger. There are more females playing AFL in Qld than RL.

There has never been a junior from VIctoria without a NSW/Qld/UK/NZ/Pacific background play in the NRL. There are 17 RL clubs in Melbourne (all in the very outer suburbs) and just four women’s teams (say 60 players). In Sydney there are 42 women’s AFL teams (850 players). Queenland has even more females playing AFL (about 50 teams or 1000 players). These are just the adult teams, there are even more junior female teams.

You can laugh at Giants and Sun crowds and ratings all you like but more and more kids are getting a Sherrin for Xmas not a Steeden.

Do the research. These are facts. It should be worrying all RL fans. The AFL is building from the bottom up. And this is what PVL should be working on, not stupid conference systems to protect the Sydney clubs.

And if these participation trends continue, within a decade there won’t be the depth of quality players for 16 teams, let alone 18 or 20.

 

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

Google is our friend here. There are 15 times more teams in actual competitions. Factor in that AFL teams have 18 players and RL 13, and that equals 20 times more players. I am not factoring AFL spin on Auskick or junior clinics numbers at all.

Some parts of the ‘RL states’ - Canberra, Gold Coast, Northern NSW, Riverina, Cairns, have as many or more AFL players as RL players. If you don’t count Touch as actual RL, then the gap in female participation is even bigger. There are more females playing AFL in Qld than RL.

There has never been a junior from VIctoria without a NSW/Qld/UK/NZ/Pacific background play in the NRL. There are 17 RL clubs in Melbourne (all in the very outer suburbs) and just four women’s teams (say 60 players). In Sydney there are 42 women’s AFL teams (850 players). Queenland has even more females playing AFL (about 50 teams or 1000 players). These are just the adult teams, there are even more junior female teams.

You can laugh at Giants and Sun crowds and ratings all you like but more and more kids are getting a Sherrin for Xmas not a Steeden.

Do the research. These are facts. It should be worrying all RL fans. The AFL is building from the bottom up. And this is what PVL should be working on, not stupid conference systems to protect the Sydney clubs.

And if these participation trends continue, within a decade there won’t be the depth of quality players for 16 teams, let alone 18 or 20.

Great post. Rochedale Drakes sells fumbleballs, not rugby league balls. This is in an RL area. They're coming for us and we're not doing anything to counter their incursion.

 

[mongoose]

QLD is a worry... my local used to be Newmarket hotel and when new owners took over they started putting AFL on the main TV over NRL even when the Broncos were playing. I had to always ask the guy behind the bar to put the NRL on the main TV and he usually obliged but every time I went in there on a weekend I had to ask.

I went to Eatons Hill last year while a Broncos game was on and what did they have on their main TV? the Richmond fumbleball game. It's definitely concerning.

btw no one was watching any of these AFL games in large numbers, maybe 3 or 4 people max

 

[Perth Red]

In 2000 Storm averaged 15k, 18k in 2019. That’s 20% increase in 20 seasons. The new stadium has helped of course as has continued success.
And to say that Vic local standard has improved because they perform better against WA is tenuous at best. Perhaps WA is just much weaker now - as you actually suggest.

you see what you've done there is cherry picked one season lol. Over there first ten years of existence they avg'd around 11k going as high as a one off 15k and as having quite a few early years around the 9k. Last few years pre covid they avgd 18k. Not sure how you cant see a growth pattern lol

If anything Id say the WA comp has got stronger at the top with the elite jnr pathways we now have and the experience of our kids playing in SG Ball every year.

 

[Jamberoo]

you see what you've done there is cherry picked one season lol. Over there first ten years of existence they avg'd around 11k going as high as a one off 15k and as having quite a few early years around the 9k. Last few years pre covid they avgd 18k. Not sure how you cant see a growth pattern lol

If anything Id say the WA comp has got stronger at the top with the elite jnr pathways we now have and the experience of our kids playing in SG Ball every year.

I followed your lead in cherry picking a season. Crowds started strongly at Olympic Park, then dropped off, then increased at AAMI. Olympic Park was ancient. You need to take out the later years there, the place was a joke. Yes, crowds are growing but should be much bigger given Storm’s success, and the city’s crowds for AFL, SOO, cricket, and until recently, soccer.

 

[Jamberoo]

The NRL needs a serious revamp for 2023 to counter AFL in NSW and Qld.
Step 1 Full 16 team women’s comp. 15 rounds. It has to be more than the AFL is doing (14 teams, 10 rounds). Don’t worry about the standard. It aim is to get girls playing their mums interested.
Step 2. Brisbane 2.
Step 3. Match if the round each week in set time slot at the new SFS.
Step 4. All 600 players expected to do multiple clinics at schools and junior clubs each week.
Step 5. Formalise and announce what is happening with Sydney stadiums and give these clubs some hope.
Step 6. Team 18. Of the comp can’t afford or is not prepared to spend hundred of millions in Perth or Adelaide then forget those markets and go with Bris 3 or NZ 2.
Step 7. Take all power away from the clubs so the above can happen.

Massive change is needed. And soon.

Rome is burning

 

[Perth Red]

I followed your lead in cherry picking a season. Crowds started strongly at Olympic Park, then dropped off, then increased at AAMI. Olympic Park was ancient. You need to take out the later years there, the place was a joke. Yes, crowds are growing but should be much bigger given Storm’s success, and the city’s crowds for AFL, SOO, cricket, and until recently, soccer.

I didnt pick an outlier season, for 4 years (2002-2005) they avg'd 9k consistently, for 4 years (2016-2019) they have avg over 18k. Clear growth not attributable to a one off season.
Dont disagree crowds COULD (there is no should when it comes to getting customers) be bigger but scheduling, cost and lack of work to grow RL by the NRL in Victoria are key factors. RL isnt as popualr as we all like to thinka nd crowds are reflective of that.
Id say given some heartland clubs struggle to attract 12k avg that hitting 19k avg in the strongest AFL city isn't too shoddy.

 

[Perth Red]

The NRL needs a serious revamp for 2023 to counter AFL in NSW and Qld.
Step 1 Full 16 team women’s comp. 15 rounds. It has to be more than the AFL is doing (14 teams, 10 rounds). Don’t worry about the standard. It aim is to get girls playing their mums interested.
Step 2. Brisbane 2.
Step 3. Match if the round each week in set time slot at the new SFS.
Step 4. All 600 players expected to do multiple clinics at schools and junior clubs each week.
Step 5. Formalise and announce what is happening with Sydney stadiums and give these clubs some hope.
Step 6. Team 18. Of the comp can’t afford or is not prepared to spend hundred of millions in Perth or Adelaide then forget those markets and go with Bris 3 or NZ 2.
Step 7. Take all power away from the clubs so the above can happen.

Massive change is needed. And soon.

Rome is burning

1. NRl doesn't have the funds to deliver a full womens comp (or wont spend them)
2. Agreed
3. Should be a all sydney match of the week on a Friday night at either SFS or Bankwest, whichever makes most sense. NRL to control it, sell tickets, be responsible for promotion and game day experience. Clubs get a set revenue from being part of it.
4. agreed but needs to be targeted and part of a much wider and sustained engagement strategy
5. Thats out of the NRLs hands
6. Perth wont cost hundreds of millions lol, NZ2 is probably a much bigger commercial risk.
7. Will never happen and the ARLC stupidly has actually set it up so they have more power than at any time before.

 

[flippikat]

6. Perth wont cost hundreds of millions lol, NZ2 is probably a much bigger commercial risk.

As a Kiwi, as much as it's probably treason to say it - you're 100% correct.

Perth has more of a "critical mass" of population & money than any of the NZ cities outside Auckland, and the added bonus of a new timezone.

 

[baselinepanther]

Google is our friend here. There are 15 times more teams in actual competitions. Factor in that AFL teams have 18 players and RL 13, and that equals 20 times more players. I am not factoring AFL spin on Auskick or junior clinics numbers at all.

Some parts of the ‘RL states’ - Canberra, Gold Coast, Northern NSW, Riverina, Cairns, have as many or more AFL players as RL players. If you don’t count Touch as actual RL, then the gap in female participation is even bigger. There are more females playing AFL in Qld than RL.

There has never been a junior from VIctoria without a NSW/Qld/UK/NZ/Pacific background play in the NRL. There are 17 RL clubs in Melbourne (all in the very outer suburbs) and just four women’s teams (say 60 players). In Sydney there are 42 women’s AFL teams (850 players). Queenland has even more females playing AFL (about 50 teams or 1000 players). These are just the adult teams, there are even more junior female teams.

You can laugh at Giants and Sun crowds and ratings all you like but more and more kids are getting a Sherrin for Xmas not a Steeden.

Do the research. These are facts. It should be worrying all RL fans. The AFL is building from the bottom up. And this is what PVL should be working on, not stupid conference systems to protect the Sydney clubs.

And if these participation trends continue, within a decade there won’t be the depth of quality players for 16 teams, let alone 18 or 20.

worrying ??
LOL
Its no different to soccer , the king of participation sports in NSW /ACT & QLD
these kids get a soccer ball for christmas , but they don't watch it on TV or attend games. They watch their heroes in the NRL & TV ratings back this up.
They play it because mummy says if they're playing football it won';t be RL because its too rough
so our code has a different strategy which has gone somewhat un noticed in recent years...
There are a million players playing league tag , oz tag touch football & Rugby League in Australia right up there with any sport in this nation
RL is a hard sport to play , its demanding & thats why mothers steer their kids away from it. But its non or low contact variants are booming.

skinny little white boys are maybe leaving rugby union to have their skills diminish , & they may be fumbling bumbling & missing in pimms & cucumber sandwich land but thats about it. Have them, we never had them , we don't want them
they're snoody uppity snobs from where ever union used to be strong in Sydney , Brisbane & Canberra & are probably more suited to fumbleball. AFL is not making many inroads into our junior ranks across all versions of our sport as much as you want it to be so

Our code will continue to have enormous numbers of kids playing our low contact variants & encouraging the tougher kids with a bit of ticker to come across to the full contact version to fill our junior development needs.

We will be fine
we don';t need fumbleball apologists like yourself & Perth Red pretending to worry for us either

K ?

 

[Perth Red]

worrying ??
We will be fine

K ?

 

[Santino Patane]

View attachment 47994

 

[Jamberoo]

worrying ??
LOL
Its no different to soccer , the king of participation sports in NSW /ACT & QLD
these kids get a soccer ball for christmas , but they don't watch it on TV or attend games. They watch their heroes in the NRL & TV ratings back this up.
They play it because mummy says if they're playing football it won';t be RL because its too rough
so our code has a different strategy which has gone somewhat un noticed in recent years...
There are a million players playing league tag , oz tag touch football & Rugby League in Australia right up there with any sport in this nation
RL is a hard sport to play , its demanding & thats why mothers steer their kids away from it. But its non or low contact variants are booming.

skinny little white boys are maybe leaving rugby union to have their skills diminish , & they may be fumbling bumbling & missing in pimms & cucumber sandwich land but thats about it. Have them, we never had them , we don't want them
they're snoody uppity snobs from where ever union used to be strong in Sydney , Brisbane & Canberra & are probably more suited to fumbleball. AFL is not making many inroads into our junior ranks across all versions of our sport as much as you want it to be so

Our code will continue to have enormous numbers of kids playing our low contact variants & encouraging the tougher kids with a bit of ticker to come across to the full contact version to fill our junior development needs.

We will be fine
we don';t need fumbleball apologists like yourself & Perth Red pretending to worry for us either

K ?

Actually it’s totally different to Soccer and basketball participation. Only kids play these sports. Especially those the are not that sporty, because these sports are easy to play. They require little skill or practice. Virtually no adults play these sports, which is a reason why participation does not convert to attendance or TV as adults, those sports are dropped as soon as kids finish school.
But kids are continuing to play AFL as adults. The figures I gave were all adults playing in competitions. That is a radical change in the last 10 years.
Anyone can see that the women’s push from the AFL must be countered by RL. This was an accidental masterstroke from the AFL. They did not want it at all. But is has turned into their best weapon.

Furthermore, this forum definitely needs posters like PR to offer a different perspective to that of the Sydney bogans (or is it still ‘Westies’?).

 

[mongoose]

Actually it’s totally different to Soccer and basketball participation. Only kids play these sports. Especially those the are not that sporty, because these sports are easy to play. They require little skill or practice. Virtually no adults play these sports, which is a reason why participation does not convert to attendance or TV as adults, those sports are dropped as soon as kids finish school.
But kids are continuing to play AFL as adults. The figures I gave were all adults playing in competitions. That is a radical change in the last 10 years.
Anyone can see that the women’s push from the AFL must be countered by RL. This was an accidental masterstroke from the AFL. They did not want it at all. But is has turned into their best weapon.

Furthermore, this forum definitely needs posters like PR to offer a different perspective to that of the Sydney bogans (or is it still ‘Westies’?).

i wouldn't say Basketball is easy, quite difficult sport to be good at. Plenty of adult soccer and basketball comps around as well, probably more than there are AFL ones in NSW/QLD.

 

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

QLD is a worry... my local used to be Newmarket hotel and when new owners took over they started putting AFL on the main TV over NRL even when the Broncos were playing. I had to always ask the guy behind the bar to put the NRL on the main TV and he usually obliged but every time I went in there on a weekend I had to ask.

I went to Eatons Hill last year while a Broncos game was on and what did they have on their main TV? the Richmond fumbleball game. It's definitely concerning.

btw no one was watching any of these AFL games in large numbers, maybe 3 or 4 people max

Which means AwFuL is either paying the owners of these hotels and bars to promote fumbleball or our game's reputation is so shot that they don't want to be associated with it. That's the market RL is competing in these days, and we haven't adapted.

A cashed up AwFuL is using its extra revenue to make serious inroads into Brisbane and Sydney. Like usual, the ARLC has sat back and done nothing to counter it over the last 25 years. It's starting to pay dividends for AwFuL, with the younger generation starting to adopt the game.. The Sydney-centric mindset of the ARLC has allowed AwFuL to have Adelaide and Perth all to themselves and make serious inroads in Brisbane that probably cannot be undone.

 

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

Actually it’s totally different to Soccer and basketball participation. Only kids play these sports. Especially those the are not that sporty, because these sports are easy to play. They require little skill or practice. Virtually no adults play these sports, which is a reason why participation does not convert to attendance or TV as adults, those sports are dropped as soon as kids finish school.
But kids are continuing to play AFL as adults. The figures I gave were all adults playing in competitions. That is a radical change in the last 10 years.
Anyone can see that the women’s push from the AFL must be countered by RL. This was an accidental masterstroke from the AFL. They did not want it at all. But is has turned into their best weapon.

Furthermore, this forum definitely needs posters like PR to offer a different perspective to that of the Sydney bogans (or is it still ‘Westies’?).

Soccer is a competitor taking potential customers away from RL. They aren't watching the A-League, but they are paying to watch the EPL on Optus Sports and the other European Leagues on BeIN Sport. When I was growing up in the 90s and early 00s, the kids at my high school only spoke about soccer. It was always the EPL and World Cup. Many of my peers, especially the ones from southern Europe and South America, didn't even know the difference between RL and RU. It's a worry.

 

[mongoose]

Which means AwFuL is either paying the owners of these hotels and bars to promote fumbleball or our game's reputation is so shot that they don't want to be associated with it. That's the market RL is competing in these days, and we haven't adapted.

A cashed up AwFuL is using its extra revenue to make serious inroads into Brisbane and Sydney. Like usual, the ARLC has sat back and done nothing to counter it over the last 25 years. It's starting to pay dividends for AwFuL, with the younger generation starting to adopt the game.. The Sydney-centric mindset of the ARLC has allowed AwFuL to have Adelaide and Perth all to themselves and make serious inroads in Brisbane that probably cannot be undone.

I would say the owners are most likely from Victoria.

It is possible the AFL are paying some establishments off, you certainly wouldn't put it passed them.

 

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

I would say the owners are most likely from Victoria.

It is possible the AFL are paying some establishments off, you certainly wouldn't put it passed them.

Interstate migration is only going to get more common with jobs becoming scarcer. Teams in Adelaide and Perth are vital for Queenslanders and New South Welshmen who are forced interstate.

 

[Perth Red]

Interstate migration is only going to get more common with jobs becoming scarcer. Teams in Adelaide and Perth are vital for Queenslanders and New South Welshmen who are forced interstate.

it would seem lots of souths fans have moved to perth, there’s bunnies stickers on the backs of plenty of cars!

 

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

it would seem lots of souths fans have moved to perth, there’s bunnies stickers on the backs of plenty of cars!

Isn't Peter Holmes-a-Court from Perth?