OT: Current Affairs and Politics

[Chipmunk]

Now my thoughts on actual electorates.

There's no way that there is more people in the electorate overall who are more anti Liberal now than they were 3 years ago in New South Wales and Victoria. People have short memories of how much anti Liberal sentiment there was in the electorate.

I'd say the sentiment against the Liberals is greater in WA and South Australia now, but these two states combined don't have the same electorates as even Queensland.

The sentiment against the Liberals in Queensland and Tasmania I reckon is about the same.

The election is a contest of 151 individual seats, and people seem to lose site of this. Realistically the only 15 seats in play for Labor and Liberal to swap hands are:

Longman and Leichardt in Queensland
Reid, Robertson, Macquarie, Lindsay, Gilmore, and Eden-Monaro
Chisholm and Corangamite in Victoria
Bass and Braddon in Tasmania
Boothby in South Australia
Swan and Pearce in WA.

The other seats being talked about is just make-believe media dribble.

The Teal seats have had a lot of interest, but I don't think they'll win any off the Libs. Warringah was a different electorate and different election for a whole host of reasons, which I don't think can be replicated in the other electorates being targeted.

 

[Gary Gutful]

Vote 1. Chipmunk.

Spoken and Authorised by Chippy McChip Face for the Narellan bowls club.

 

[The Silverdale Phantom]

Now my thoughts on actual electorates.

There's no way that there is more people in the electorate overall who are more anti Liberal now than they were 3 years ago in New South Wales and Victoria. People have short memories of how much anti Liberal sentiment there was in the electorate.

I'd say the sentiment against the Liberals is greater in WA and South Australia now, but these two states combined don't have the same electorates as even Queensland.

The sentiment against the Liberals in Queensland and Tasmania I reckon is about the same.

The election is a contest of 151 individual seats, and people seem to lose site of this. Realistically the only 15 seats in play for Labor and Liberal to swap hands are:

Longman and Leichardt in Queensland
Reid, Robertson, Macquarie, Lindsay, Gilmore, and Eden-Monaro
Chisholm and Corangamite in Victoria
Bass and Braddon in Tasmania
Boothby in South Australia
Swan and Pearce in WA.

The other seats being talked about is just make-believe media dribble.

The Teal seats have had a lot of interest, but I don't think they'll win any off the Libs. Warringah was a different electorate and different election for a whole host of reasons, which I don't think can be replicated in the other electorates being targeted.

You forgot Cowan:



I’d say that’s in play, statistically anyway.

 

[the phantom menace]

Can anyone explain this to me ? This is not the first time that Tim Wilson has tried to erode family super. Why woukd a government encourage access to super earlier ? Isn’t the idea that we all be self funded retirees and not need a pension.

Tim Wilson's anti-super campaign a problem for complacent, vulnerable ALP

Labor must not underestimate it's vulnerability on compulsory super. If it does, it risks a repeat of the franking credits disaster.

www.crikey.com.au

To provide a short term boost for their industry/developer mates, and keep the residential tower building lark going?

 

[the phantom menace]

Now my thoughts on actual electorates.

There's no way that there is more people in the electorate overall who are more anti Liberal now than they were 3 years ago in New South Wales and Victoria. People have short memories of how much anti Liberal sentiment there was in the electorate.

I reckon there might be (in NSW)... I'm feeling more anti-Liberal than usual/three years ago - they're a mob of clowns! I think the downfall of Gladys falling on her own (pork) sword and subsequent replacement by this Dom character might have sapped some remaining good will from some who voted Liberal in recent times? And don't underestimate the effect of Scomo's perceived failure as a leader during the NSW bushfires and floods to have increased anti-Liberal sentiment in NSW seats.

 

[The Silverdale Phantom]

All serious political commentators and all polls are predicting a Labor victory and the question really seems to be the extent of same.

As the election gets closer, the ALP look a lot stronger.

Not even the NSW Premier wants much to do with Scomo, his Education Minister is sleeping around with with his staff and Dutton is pretty much a proto-fascist who is singularly unelectable as a leader.

A dodgy attorney general ( the country’s so called number one lawyer) taking secret gifts from strangers and who had to be sacked. What a fine example he made for his profession?

In the meantime, his treasurer is courting rampant gay haters despite the fact the country voted for same sex marriage.

All attempts to discredit Albo have failed miserably and the libs bang on with a dead message. Even Hadley feels sorry for Scomo.
He might be eels royalty, but on paper, that’s almost as bad as it gets!

What about the $42m grant to scomos church?

Let’s not talk about the subs.

I cite this stuff, but I’m not a mad scomo hater or Labor stooge. Not at all.

I think this government is done and dusted.

Vote for whoever you want.

Just my opinion.

 

[the phantom menace]

Not even the NSW Premier wants much to do with Scomo,

None of the current Lib MPs or candidates in NSW seem to want to have Scomo around them much either - they know he's on the nose and a liability, despite running the first five weeks of the campaign thinking he was their biggest strength.

 

[The Silverdale Phantom]

None of the current Lib MPs or candidates in NSW seem to want to have Scomo around them much either - they know he's on the nose and a liability, despite running the first five weeks of the campaign thinking he was their biggest strength.

Yep. They have read the room.

The video I saw from the launch looked like a funeral.

Plenty of ministers, eyelids half closed, looking around sneakily wondering who has the numbers for opposition leader!

Abbot was there, plotting a return I suppose?!

 

[strider]

To provide a short term boost for their industry/developer mates, and keep the residential tower building lark going?

Look out. Its ghetto time again

 

[strider]

To provide a short term boost for their industry/developer mates, and keep the residential tower building lark going?

Is labor's, we will give you 40% of your house, also gonna result in a boost? Labor have developer mates too? ..... muthaf**kers are all in on it

 

[Bandwagon]

Can anyone explain this to me ? This is not the first time that Tim Wilson has tried to erode family super. Why woukd a government encourage access to super earlier ? Isn’t the idea that we all be self funded retirees and not need a pension.

Tim Wilson's anti-super campaign a problem for complacent, vulnerable ALP

Labor must not underestimate it's vulnerability on compulsory super. If it does, it risks a repeat of the franking credits disaster.

www.crikey.com.au

Union involvement in industry funds.

 

[Bandwagon]

Now my thoughts on actual electorates.

There's no way that there is more people in the electorate overall who are more anti Liberal now than they were 3 years ago in New South Wales and Victoria. People have short memories of how much anti Liberal sentiment there was in the electorate.

I'd say the sentiment against the Liberals is greater in WA and South Australia now, but these two states combined don't have the same electorates as even Queensland.

The sentiment against the Liberals in Queensland and Tasmania I reckon is about the same.

The election is a contest of 151 individual seats, and people seem to lose site of this. Realistically the only 15 seats in play for Labor and Liberal to swap hands are:

Longman and Leichardt in Queensland
Reid, Robertson, Macquarie, Lindsay, Gilmore, and Eden-Monaro
Chisholm and Corangamite in Victoria
Bass and Braddon in Tasmania
Boothby in South Australia
Swan and Pearce in WA.

The other seats being talked about is just make-believe media dribble.

The Teal seats have had a lot of interest, but I don't think they'll win any off the Libs. Warringah was a different electorate and different election for a whole host of reasons, which I don't think can be replicated in the other electorates being targeted.

Where I think you're going wrong here is that it's not "anti Liberal" sentiment, it's anti this government and Scotty in particular.

Scotty has chosen to run this as a presidential style campaign, and like it or not that's gonna play very heavily on the way a lot of folks vote. 2019 he did the same, but he did it on the back of a confected budget surplus, and Shorten being fairly easily targeted with a lot of "scary" policy.

Those conditions just don't exist in this election. Albo's played small target with unambitious change, and the budget, well, no matter how you paint it, you aint using any black.

On the "teals" I guess we'll see, but whilst you might not believe they pose much of a threat, old Joshy sure as f**k does, and so too do a lot of his mates in the press. The shenanigans going on, and the amount of money being poured into Kooyong will tell you that.

If anything you could compare what's happening with the teals in heartland seats to the way in which Labor abandoning a lot of it's union roots in favour of a more neo-liberal stance allowed Howard to make serious inroads into traditional Labor heartland. These inner urban blue ribbon seats are all still full of Liberal voters, but there's obviously now a significant number of these that no longer feel the current Liberal party represents their values or their interests. This isn't an overnight thing, it's been building for some time, and it won't be unique to this election.

 

[Gronk]

These comments seem odd, considering that if you look at recent federal Royal Commissions, one party HAS weaponised them for political gain. The thing is that a sitting government controls the what when how of a RC, whereas a federal ICAC is an independent watchdog.

I might be bias and Put my hand up if anyone thinks that I’m looking at this through a lense of bias, but the terms of reference for these RC were classic political hit jobs by a PM on his opposition.

 

[chiefy1]

Can anyone explain this to me ? This is not the first time that Tim Wilson has tried to erode family super. Why woukd a government encourage access to super earlier ? Isn’t the idea that we all be self funded retirees and not need a pension.

Tim Wilson's anti-super campaign a problem for complacent, vulnerable ALP

Labor must not underestimate it's vulnerability on compulsory super. If it does, it risks a repeat of the franking credits disaster.

www.crikey.com.au

Accessible super will only create more heat in the housing market market which will drive up housing prices by whatever the amount is Accessible 50k, making the Australian dream of owning a property harder for younger generations, its just a bs proposal to grab votes. Same goes with the united parties 30k tax deductible bull shit.
These are just vote grabbing scumbag proposals by f**kwitts who try to pull the wool over the average punters eyes.

 

[strider]

Accessible super will only create more heat in the housing market market which will drive up housing prices by whatever the amount is Accessible 50k, making the Australian dream of owning a property harder for younger generations, its just a bs proposal to grab votes. Same goes with the united parties 30k tax deductible bull shit.
These are just vote grabbing scumbag proposals by f**kwitts who try to pull the wool over the average punters eyes.

The govt paying for 40% of the house wont?

 

[chiefy1]

The govt paying for 40% of the house wont?

What government would be paying 40% have u been drinking ?

 

[strider]

What government would be paying 40% have u been drinking ?

So their policy is a fib? Dirty rotten merkins

 

[chiefy1]

So their policy is a fib? Dirty rotten merkins

Mate what policy are u talking about

 

[Gronk]

So their policy is a fib? Dirty rotten merkins

Who can access it?​

Only first-homebuyers can access super for housing under the policy. They must have saved a 5% deposit for the home already without accessing super.

It must be for an owner-occupier purchase and the first-homebuyer must live in the home for at least 12 months.

There is no floor on what your super balance must be before you can access it, and no cap on income, meaning even very low or very high-income earners can use it. It can be used in conjunction with the first-homebuyer guarantee or first home super saver schemes. The scheme will start by 1 July 2023.

Couples can both access the scheme, and one partner being ineligible does not prevent the other from accessing it.

How much can they get?

Buyers could withdraw up to 40% of their superannuation, to a maximum of $50,000. That means it would not be possible to clean out your account – at least 60% of your super balance would remain untouched.

How would this help getting into the market?​

Allowing people to access up to $50,000 would mean a larger deposit, sooner, for first-homebuyers. The Coalition estimates the scheme would cut the time taken to save a deposit by three years on average. The scheme is for both new and existing housing.

What would happen when I sold?
When the property is sold, the invested amount would need to be returned to the superannuation fund, including a share of any capital gain.

That means if a first-homebuyer accessed the full $50,000 and lived in the house for 15 years and the price doubled, $100,000 would have to be returned to the worker’s super fund.

The Coalition argues that this means the scheme doesn’t destroy retirement savings but supports them.

Any capital gain associated with the first-home investment would be exempt from tax on repayment to their superannuation fund.

But if the price of the house falls, the amount paid back also decreases proportionally. For example, if a $500,000 home with a $50,000 super payment is sold for $450,000, the amount returned to super would be $45,000.

https://www.theguardian.com/austral...-party-superannuation-housing-campaign-launch

 

[Twizzle]

First home buyers struggling to save a deposit will have f**k all super, and they are gonna need what ?

$50K=$80K ?

yeah, OK