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OT: Current Affairs and Politics

Gronk

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OK, so there is one key point there, they're planning on 'delivering new and advanced nuclear power' which will provide base load power.

What are we planning to use for base load power instead?

I've always found that we're very hypocritical here as a country, we're one of biggest exporters of uranium for nuclear power in the world, but we refuse to use it ourselves. I assume we will go the same way with coal eventually?
In its 2022 Global Energy Perspective, leading global consultancy McKinsey & Company says renewable energy is on track to account for 50% of the world’s power mix by 2030, and around 85% by 2050, thanks to the increasing cost competitiveness of new solar and wind capacity.


The Gratton Institute reckons that we'll end up with a mix. Remember always that the point of this exercise is to be Net Zero, rather than Zero. So gas or maybe hydrogen is likely to feature in a Net Zero framework.

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Chipmunk

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In its 2022 Global Energy Perspective, leading global consultancy McKinsey & Company says renewable energy is on track to account for 50% of the world’s power mix by 2030, and around 85% by 2050, thanks to the increasing cost competitiveness of new solar and wind capacity.


The Gratton Institute reckons that we'll end up with a mix. Remember always that the point of this exercise is to be Net Zero, rather than Zero. So gas or maybe hydrogen is likely to feature in a Net Zero framework.

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A lot of those assumptions are based on the advancement of technology that either doesn't exist or is in its infancy.

It's only 28 years to 2050. How advanced has some of this technology developed in the last 28 years (1994) in comparison?
 

Gronk

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A lot of those assumptions are based on the advancement of technology that either doesn't exist or is in its infancy.

It's only 28 years to 2050. How advanced has some of this technology developed in the last 28 years (1994) in comparison?
True, but the $/KW for Nuclear Generation is huge, let alone the $$$$$$$ to construct. If you think building subs takes a long time, just wait how long it would take to get us meaningful nuclear base power. As mush as some will hype nuclear power generation, the facts are that many countries like germany are phasing it out because of the danger and better solutions.

 

Chipmunk

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True, but the $/KW for Nuclear Generation is huge, let alone the $$$$$$$ to construct. If you think building subs takes a long time, just wait how long it would take to get us meaningful nuclear base power. As mush as some will hype nuclear power generation, the facts are that many countries like germany are phasing it out because of the danger and better solutions.

But Germany is also now going to have to reopen coal power stations also
 

Chipmunk

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We are seen globally as a pack of mongrels who seek to make cash whilst the rest of the world does the heavy lifting.

Do you think that if Australia stopped selling coal tomorrow, that the world would just stop buying it?

Where is this world wide condemnation of China, India, Japan, Indonesia, and Vietnam or using the coal


If there was no market, we wouldn't sell it.
 
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Bandwagon

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True, but the $/KW for Nuclear Generation is huge, let alone the $$$$$$$ to construct. If you think building subs takes a long time, just wait how long it would take to get us meaningful nuclear base power. As mush as some will hype nuclear power generation, the facts are that many countries like germany are phasing it out because of the danger and better solutions.


I'll pull you up there a bit, the cost of nuclear generation is actually fairly cheap, it's the capital costs in building and the time before you make a return that's the killer, and why it's the dearest form of new generation.

And Germany's not the best example, as they're a bit f**ked right now on account of the interim solution to decommissioning nuclear was replacing it with tasty Russian gas.
 

Bandwagon

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Do you think that if Australia stopped selling coal tomorrow, that the world would just stop buying it?

Eventually they likely would look to alternatives, take our coal outta the world market and watch the price of coal rocket to the moon.
 

Chipmunk

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China, India and the rest of the third world will have to get their coal to power their new coal power plants from somewhere.




 
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Chipmunk

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Eventually they likely would look to alternatives, take our coal outta the world market and watch the price of coal rocket to the moon.
Australia only has 14% of the World's coal. Do you think Russia, China and India will not just mine more if needed?


Can you really see the largest exporter of coal, Indonesia, or the third largest exporter of coal, Russia, stop selling coal anytime soon?

 

Bandwagon

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Australia only has 14% of the World's coal. Do you think Russia, China and India will not just mine more if needed?


Can you really see the largest exporter of coal, Indonesia, or the third largest exporter of coal, Russia, stop selling coal anytime soon?


I think if they could just mine more they would, and I also think Australian coal is higher quality for the most part.

If you wanna see the impact of Australian coal being withdrawn from the market, check out how prices were affected by China's ban on imports of Australian coal.
 

Bandwagon

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Or indeed check the price rises since the Ukraine war started, interrupting Russian energy exports.
 

Chipmunk

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I think if they could just mine more they would, and I also think Australian coal is higher quality for the most part.

If you wanna see the impact of Australian coal being withdrawn from the market, check out how prices were affected by China's ban on imports of Australian coal.

Or indeed check the price rises since the Ukraine war started, interrupting Russian energy exports.

Yes, but this is all short term issues, just as the Brazillian's inability for a short time to get iron ore to China causes the prize to dramatically increase.

Australia isn't going to exit coal production overnight, it would be a planned thing over a period of time. This would mean other countries, some who now have plenty of reserves, but little consumption and production, could also ramp up their coal mining development over time.

There are related worldwide trade reasons why Australia exports the levels of coal it does now, and why levels of coal production are what they are in the world. China and India both still export coal to parts of the world, yet they import a shit load as well. That doesn't really make a lot of sense, but again, their are worldwide trade reasons unrelated to coal that cause this.

If Australia has the best quality coal, is it not a good thing to continue to sell that, instead of less quality coal being used? No one will care about the quality if that quality is no longer available. Do you think people will not buy coal any more because good quality Australian coal is gone?

Whilst there remains someone who wants to buy coal, I think it's silly for Australia not to sell it.
 
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Bandwagon

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Yes, but this is all short term issues, just as the Brazillian's inability for a short time to get iron ore to China causes the prize to dramatically increase.

Australia isn't going to exit coal production overnight, it would be a planned thing over a period of time. This would mean other countries, some who now have plenty of reserves, but little consumption and production, could also ramp up their coal mining development over time.

There are related worldwide trade reasons why Australia exports the levels of coal it does now, and why levels of coal production are what they are in the world. China and India both still export coal to parts of the world, yet they import a shit load as well. That doesn't really make a lot of sense, but again, their are worldwide trade reasons unrelated to coal that cause this.

If Australia has the best quality coal, is it not a good thing to continue to sell that, instead of less quality coal being used? No one will care about the quality if that quality is no longer available. Do you think people will not buy coal any more because good quality Australian coal is gone?

Whilst there remains someone who wants to buy coal, I think it's silly for Australia not to sell it.

While there is someone willing to buy crack coke, it's silly not to sell it.

But hey, I'm not advocating for us to stop selling coal here, there's plenty of reasons why we wouldn't, all I'm suggesting is that if we did, it would have an impact on price, which would impact demand, because the only reason coal is still used in energy production is because it's the cheapest form of fossil fuel there is.
 

Chipmunk

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While there is someone willing to buy crack coke, it's silly not to sell it.
Your first sentence is a good analogy on things.

We're (the country) getting up on our moral high ground horse by considering not producing and selling something that is still legal to use in this country (coal), whilst at the same time, we're happy to continue to big one of the largest producers and sellers of something that is illegal to use in this country (uranium).

Ultimately I think we'll continue to produce and sell both in very large quantities, but still not use either. We will always mine and export coal, for the same reasons the country doesn't ban cigarettes. It's too hard to replace the revenue so that we can continue to live the life we're all accustomed to.

I assume those at the top of the drug dealing tree are not really consumers of the commodity they produce and sell either.
 

Gary Gutful

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Net is net, so emissions less absorption. So for every bit of emission created, it's offset by the same amount removed from the atmosphere.

A simple example would be if a mature tree absorbs the same amount of carbon as emitted by a car, you would need to have an extra mature tree for every car being used.

Obviously it gets a hell of lot more complicated than that, for example with the export of coal who's responsible for the emissions of burning it? The place of origin that benefited from the profit from the sale, or the place of consumption that benefited from the energy produced?
Two terms, in particular – ‘carbon neutral’ and ‘net-zero carbon’ – are often used interchangeably but represent very different approaches to combatting climate change.

CARBON NEUTRAL​

Carbon neutrality means balancing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by ‘offsetting’ – or removing from the atmosphere – an equivalent amount of carbon for the amount produced.

This can be achieved by buying ‘carbon credits’ – in essence, permission to emit carbon dioxide or other GHG in exchange for offsetting the effects of those emissions – and/or by supporting GHG-reduction initiatives such as renewable-energy projects.

However, a commitment to carbon neutrality does not require (or even necessarily imply) a commitment to reduce overall GHG emissions. A carbon-neutral business needs only to offset the GHG emissions it produces – even if those emissions are increasing.

NET-ZERO CARBON​

In contrast, a commitment to net-zero carbon means reducing greenhouse gas emissions with the goal of balancing the emissions produced and emissions removed from the earth’s atmosphere.

Take, as a simplified example, the case of air travel: if, in total, people within a given business take 10 flights per year, the organisation could achieve carbon neutrality for those 10 flights simply by buying enough carbon credits or by supporting renewable-energy projects to offset the emissions (or a combination of the two).

To achieve net-zero carbon, the company would need to reduce the number of flights per year as much as possible (to five, for instance) and also invest in projects that remove from the atmosphere the carbon dioxide produced by emissions from the other five flights.

Extrapolate a similar pattern across all the ways a business might produce emissions – such as heating its buildings or buying from suppliers who produce emissions – and the company achieves net-zero by:

  • reducing its GHG emissions across all these activities as much as possible
  • supporting/funding the removal of carbon dioxide produced by any emissions the business does produce.
 

Gary Gutful

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I think it depends on who's counting, but "officially" no, I don't believe it does, however I'm not certain of that.
Correct.

It often comes down to how countries and organisations report Scope 1, Scope 2 and Scope 3 emissions. It gets quite complicated and as with most things in life there is at least 473 different ways to report on things meaning most emissions are probably accounted for multiple times.

Its very exciting.

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Gary Gutful

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While there is someone willing to buy crack coke, it's silly not to sell it.

But hey, I'm not advocating for us to stop selling coal here, there's plenty of reasons why we wouldn't, all I'm suggesting is that if we did, it would have an impact on price, which would impact demand, because the only reason coal is still used in energy production is because it's the cheapest form of fossil fuel there is.
Yep. Other forms of energy are rapidly catching up, but coal will continue to be an important part of the energy mix.

Also, decarbonising the economy will actually require more mining not less - particularly critical minerals/new economy minerals. I dont think everyone understands this and I predict it could be an issue that slows down the rate at which we ultimately decarbonise.
 

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