I kept reading about Iron Lion in this thread but couldn't see anything from him.
I just found his thread. I think I only got to about page five.
I think I can see why he was panicking, (with the benefit of hindsight). I agree he got to a worse case scenario.
This will happen if you base your projections off what is happening in places like China and Italy, for two different reasons. Italy was alarming. China's smoke screens always add a sinister element. Those two places combined make a decent fear sandwich if you make the mistake of assuming what happens elsewhere will definitely happen here.
The thing is, it is a risk to us ongoing, but it won't happen here.
This Virus is only as bad as Governments allow it to be by denial, cover up, or respond too late.
Our country has a lot of experience at responding to biological threats and either eliminating them, or containing them. We are at the cutting edge. We have a long view of what happens if you make mistakes.
The US is a worry, however even they have the model to pull back and may well just need to be pushed closer to the flames till they get what is really going on.
America truly is the example to the rest of us about what bad management of a pandemic looks like. Their supply chain issues are big cracks in the system, however you can't stress enough that the fix...proper social distancing, is still in their arsenal, they can still pull this thing back.
Some states get it in the US, so I'm confident they will get through. Eighty five percent of Americans don't want to come out of lock down....that's enough.