Winners and loses as carbon tax begins
Written by Ross Kendall
Saturday, 30 June 2012
AGL energy will be the only company to directly benefit from the introduction of the carbon tax while Qantas and Virgin Blue will take the biggest hit according to JP Morgan research.
The introduction of the carbon tax from July 1 will add between 9 per cent and 10.8 per cent to AGL (ASX: AGK) earnings per share (EPS) forecasts over the next three years according to JPMorgan.
?AGL via Loy Yang A power station receives an upfront cash payment and free permits, in addition to benefiting from any increase in wholesale electricity prices,? the stock broker said.
AGL is the only company in JP Morgan?s coverage expected to benefit directly from the carbon tax.
The transport sector will be the most negatively affected by the carbon tax levied through an increase in the fuel excise tax. Both Qantas (ASX: QAN) and Virgin Blue (ASX: VBA) will face a significant increase in fuel costs that ?may prove difficult to pass through to customers via higher ticket prices? JP Morgan said.
VBA forecasts include EPS falls of 14.7 per cent to 10.3 per cent over the next three years, while QAN falls in EPS of between 11.6 per cent and 7.9 per cent are expected.
Companies benefiting from the government?s Emissions Intensive Trade Exposed (EITE) scheme, which provides free carbon permits each year on a declining scale, include: Boral (ASX: BLD), Adelaide Brighton (ASX: ABC), Bluescope Steel (ASX: BSL), Onesteel (ASX: OST), Wesfarmes (ASX: WES) and Woodside Petroleum (ASX: WPL).
http://www.ethicalinvestor.com.au/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=4534
Lucky qantas and vb aren't trade exposed, but they'll be right when their solar powered planes arrive