Our Finals Chances.

[betcats]

Two complete different topics here. One is betting odds, ie whether $3 is generous odds for us to miss the 8. Personally, I think it is about right. We only need to win two home games, one against a banged up team 3000km from home and the other against a team that has won 4 from their last 13. On form over the last 3 months and discounting one poor performance, you have to think we can do that.

Then you talk about the coach, and whether he should remain the coach in 2019. I'd suggest now is certainly not the time to be making calls like this, but his winning percentage is about to surpass Phil Gould into second highest in the club's 51 year history, and with a very inexperienced team, so I do like his chances. What's wrong with doing it as soon as our on-field commitments are over, if that is what they want to do?

His winning percentage means nothing if we aren't moving forward. His winning percentage against top 8 sides since he took over is woeful. Finishing 8th isn't a good result IMO, it buys him next season for sure but to extend after it would be foolish. Just wait till origin next year and evaluate then, what is wrong with doing that? He had experience at the broncos and was getting the same results he is getting here with similar performances, we talk about him learning etc but go back and read some of those old Brisbane threads when he was coach that pete posted, they could be talking about us. They didn't go to another level until he left and I have a feeling it will be the same here.

 

[maple_69]

Weird thing about this comp is that I could see us continuing to play unconvincing footy for the next 5 weeks and go into week 2 of the finals against a top 4 side on the back of 14/16 and still expect to be trounced.

 

[TheFrog]

Finishing 8th isn't a good result IMO

It's not fantastic, but we had made the finals 10 times in 49 seasons before he arrived, and it looks like 2 from 2 since. It's not that bad, and it represents stability of performance despite how this year has panned out. This is how I suspect the club's hierarchy will see it.

 

[betcats]

It's not fantastic, but we had made the finals 10 times in 49 seasons before he arrived, and it looks like 2 from 2 since. It's not that bad, and it represents stability of performance despite how this year has panned out. This is how I suspect the club's hierarchy will see it.

I wouldn't start counting those chickens before they hatch mate, id say its 50-50 at this point. The cowboys may be battered but they are fighting for their season same as us and we aren't at full strength either. The raiders in Canberra is tough assignment, anything could happen. Manly should be beat us on form and who the f**k knows about the dragons. That's four teams with a lot to play for, they wont be lying down. Teams that hold the ball and don't give away penalties beat us and that's the finals type footy these sides will be looking to produce.

 

[Fangs]

Weird thing about this comp is that I could see us continuing to play unconvincing footy for the next 5 weeks and go into week 2 of the finals against a top 4 side on the back of 14/16 and still expect to be trounced.

In the words of Gus...its a soft comp.

2016 was soft. This year is even softer.

 

[age.s]

I think we'll beat the Cows and the Dragons while losing to Manly. The Raiders are anyone's guess. I still rate them and they'll have plenty to play for but they can also lose from anywhere. That'll probably see us to 6th or 7th.

 

[mxlegend99]

In the words of Gus...its a soft comp.

2016 was soft. This year is even softer.

Kinda. We havent been half as good as we were last year and could still scrape into the finals.

Winning 9 of our last 11 sounds impressive. But damn there were a lot of average performances. We havent once looked like a top 8 side.

 

[betcats]

There has only been one consistently good side all year and that's Melbourne, Roosters are the next closest imo but they have some dodgy losses on the books this season. Throw the sharks in for the top 3 but im still not convinced they are a real threat, we shall see.

Weve only had to play the top four sides once and all the bottom two twice luckily for Griffin or we'd be planning mad Monday already, pretty much the definition of a soft draw.

Edit: Bottom 3 sides twice, plus the warriors also, very soft draw if we are being honest. We also had a grand total of zero origin players, so disruption there. The more you look into our season the less impressive it gets.

 

[TheFrog]

We havent once looked like a top 8 side.

What does a top 8 side look like? To make 8th you don't have to beat the best sides, you just have to win half of your games or just over. It doesn't matter who you beat, they are all worth the same points.

However, to progress in the finals you need to beat good sides. That is the challenge that lies ahead, if we make it. Being able to grind out hardfought win after hardfought win seems just as good as winning by 20+ one week and losing by 20+ the next, a la Roosters, Manly, Sharks, Broncos.

We are where we are and not much higher because we played poorly in the first 9 rounds.

 

[betcats]

What does a top 8 side look like? To make 8th you don't have to beat the best sides, you just have to win half of your games or just over. It doesn't matter who you beat, they are all worth the same points.

However, to progress in the finals you need to beat good sides. That is the challenge that lies ahead, if we make it. Being able to grind out hardfought win after hardfought win seems just as good as winning by 20+ one week and losing by 20+ the next, a la Roosters, Manly, Sharks, Broncos.

We are where we are and not much higher because we played poorly in the first 9 rounds.

A top side looks like a side that can compete most weeks with the other top 8 sides, which we cannot. We are where we are mostly because of piss poor coaching and a very friendly draw. Our 'hard fought wins' have come against bottom sides, they shouldn't be hard fought wins most of the time.

 

[mxlegend99]

What does a top 8 side look like? To make 8th you don't have to beat the best sides, you just have to win half of your games or just over. It doesn't matter who you beat, they are all worth the same points.

However, to progress in the finals you need to beat good sides. That is the challenge that lies ahead, if we make it. Being able to grind out hardfought win after hardfought win seems just as good as winning by 20+ one week and losing by 20+ the next, a la Roosters, Manly, Sharks, Broncos.

We are where we are and not much higher because we played poorly in the first 9 rounds.

We are only as high as we are because outside of Panthers and Raiders. None of the teams who were in the bottom 8 are remotely decent.

Cowboys are hanging onto a top 8 spot with their 2 most important players missing most of the year.

We are nowhere near the Storm. Sharks. Roosters. Broncos or even the Eels. Cowboys beat us with a fair few missing also... we lose to them this week and it just further proves how shit we are. If we beat them it means we're just good enough to beat an out of form injury hit top 8 side.

With how we have played this year. Being an 8th or 9th placed team is pretty accurate. We are a class above the shit teams and a class below the good.

 

[franklin2323]

Two complete different topics here. One is betting odds, ie whether $3 is generous odds for us to miss the 8. Personally, I think it is about right. We only need to win two home games, one against a banged up team 3000km from home and the other against a team that has won 4 from their last 13. On form over the last 3 months and discounting one poor performance, you have to think we can do that.

Then you talk about the coach, and whether he should remain the coach in 2019. I'd agree now is certainly not the time to be making calls like this, but his winning percentage is about to surpass Phil Gould into second highest in the club's 51 year history, and with a very inexperienced team, so I do like his chances. What's wrong with doing it as soon as our on-field commitments are over, if that is what they want to do?

The club is clearly and quite publicly placing its faith in the current playing group to take them into the future, I'd be extremely surprised if that doesn't include the coach.

Great post

 

[MrBlack]

Two complete different topics here. One is betting odds, ie whether $3 is generous odds for us to miss the 8. Personally, I think it is about right. We only need to win two home games, one against a banged up team 3000km from home and the other against a team that has won 4 from their last 13. On form over the last 3 months and discounting one poor performance, you have to think we can do that.

Then you talk about the coach, and whether he should remain the coach in 2019. I'd agree now is certainly not the time to be making calls like this, but his winning percentage is about to surpass Phil Gould into second highest in the club's 51 year history, and with a very inexperienced team, so I do like his chances. What's wrong with doing it as soon as our on-field commitments are over, if that is what they want to do?

The club is clearly and quite publicly placing its faith in the current playing group to take them into the future, I'd be extremely surprised if that doesn't include the coach.

Too much logic for this website......

How are we supposed to argue with this????

 

[betcats]

Too much logic for this website......

How are we supposed to argue with this????

Us only having one bad performance in 3 months is logical? lol that is the most ridiculous comment ive read in a while, that and our form is as impressive as the roosters, sharks and broncos, three of the top four sides. That is not logical its downright delusional.

As for sorting ut the coach after the season, that's what everyone has been saying to do, wait and see where finish instead of just assuming we are going to make the 8.

.

 

[roofromoz]

Weird thing about this comp is that I could see us continuing to play unconvincing footy for the next 5 weeks and go into week 2 of the finals against a top 4 side on the back of 14/16 and still expect to be trounced.

Definitely been aided by our draw - probably wouldn't be 9 from 11 if most of the opponents from the last 11 matches were inside the top 8.

 

[maple_69]

We are a very good squad playing poorly at the end of the day which is why wthe be landed middle of the pack. In saying that we are only a spurt of hot form behind the teams 2-7 because they haven't exactly been convincing in more than patches.

 

[maple_69]

The other interesting thing will be if we grind our way to the finals, despite being unconvincing, we will be a tough side to face. We've only fallen over once since April. The run has been soft but even the better sides (ex Melbourne) can falter up against a side that hangs in and hangs in and can turn it on in the last 15.

We can turn this season into a very productive one if we walk away having gained some much needed mental toughness.

 

[TheFrog]

None of the teams who were in the bottom 8 are remotely decent.

That's how it is every year.

probably wouldn't be 9 from 11 if most of the opponents from the last 11 matches were inside the top 8.

We've had a good draw, no doubt about that. But they haven't worked out a way of basing the draw on the results of games yet to be played, so its either base it on last year, or play a 15-round comp with a pumped up and heavily promoted pre-season comp. The latter would be my preferred option.

 

[herbert henry1908]

Chance of catching the Eels now thanks to the knights.

They still have the Broncos in Brisbane

 

[billypilgrimnz]

Chance of catching the Eels now thanks to the knights.

They still have the Broncos in Brisbane

There are a lot of average teams this year. How we have only managed to beat one team in the top 8 boggles the mind