Our run to the finals

[PenrithPanther45]

Pity Manly choked against Melbourne.

 

[tripster]

Pity Manly choked against Melbourne.

I thought they were very hard done by. Manly deserved to win that game.

 

[tripster]

Does anyone feel like they can’t have any confidence at all in the NRL refereeing? That decision in the Gold Coast game was insane.

 

[unKwn]

I swear if that decision loses us a top 4 spot.... f**k the blind merkins who run this game

 

[tripster]

Refereeing in the Gold Coast game has been insane. Worst bunker call of the year (seriously see if you can find a replay). Followed by a number of baffling calls in general play and then another forward pass (right in front of the ref) missed and leading to another Roosters try.

 

[tripster]

We are about to fall to 5th. It is going to take a few very lucky outcomes in other games for us to make it back into the top 4...

 

[tripster]

Assuming results of other games for the teams above us don’t go our way, we need to win 6 from 7 to make the top 4.

If results go our way we could get there with 5 wins from 7 but for that to happen we will need either:

- Roosters to only win 4/7; or

- Roosters to win 5/7 and us to also win 5/7 but with superior F/A; or

- Storm and Dragons to win 4/7 and take some big losses to reduce their F/A to less than ours.

I don’t see the Storm losing 3 from 7. I also don’t see the Roosters only winning 4 from 7. I have also ignored the possibility of the Rabbitohs only winning 3 from 7 and their F/A becoming less than ours.

Dragons falling into a heap is a possibility but we would need them to cop some big losses and us to win by big margins to get our F/A above theirs.

It might be that the final game of the season down in Melbourne is the game that determines whether or not we finish top 4.

5th or 6th is now looking like the most likely outcome of our season which is a real shame. Given how hard we have battled all year to get here.

 

[cain3y]

Assuming results of other games for the teams above us don’t go our way, we need to win 6 from 7 to make the top 4.

If results go our way we could get there with 5 wins from 7 but for that to happen we will need either:

- Roosters to only win 4/7; or

- Roosters to win 5/7 and us to also win 5/7 but with superior F/A; or

- Storm and Dragons to win 4/7 and take some big losses to reduce their F/A to less than ours.

I don’t see the Storm losing 3 from 7. I also don’t see the Roosters only winning 4 from 7. I have also ignored the possibility of the Rabbitohs only winning 3 from 7 and their F/A becoming less than ours.

Dragons falling into a heap is a possibility but we would need them to cop some big losses and us to win by big margins to get our F/A above theirs.

It might be that the final game of the season down in Melbourne is the game that determines whether or not we finish top 4.

5th or 6th is now looking like the most likely outcome of our season which is a real shame. Given how hard we have battled all year to get here.

Have you looked at the ladder? Dragons F/A is only 15 points better than ours. That is nothing to make up. For example if we win next week by 8 and they lose by 8 we jump them. Pretty simple stuff.

 

[tripster]

Have you looked at the ladder? Dragons F/A is only 15 points better than ours. That is nothing to make up. For example if we win next week by 8 and they lose by 8 we jump them. Pretty simple stuff.

I appeciate that it is disappointing how our season is now looking, but there are 7 games left and we need one extra win over the Dragons on the run home just to draw level on number of wins, given that they are already one win in front of us.

So if they win 5/7 and we win 5/7, they finish in front of us regardless of how good our F/A is.

F/A only comes into the equation with us and the Dragons if they win 4/7 and we win 5/7.

 

[cain3y]

Sure. But there are 7 games left and we need one extra win over them on the run home just to draw level on number of wins, given that they are already one win in front of us.

So if they win 5/7 and we win 5/7, they finish in front of us regardless of how good our F/A is.

Yeah nah the top 4 is not that clear cut. Go and have a look at the draw for all the teams above us and you will see that they all play each other. The storm actually have the hardest run home and could drop a few games same as the Roosters and st george have had the wobbles the last couple of weeks and i think they will drop out of the four for either us or the sharks. Just my opinion.

 

[TheFrog]

The Rabbitohs are 4 ahead of us (+44) and play 3 top 8 sides plus Tigers twice and Raiders.
Storm are 2 ahead of us (+38) and play 4 top 8 (including us) plus Raiders.
Dragons are 2 ahead of us (+15) and play 2 top 8 plus Tigers.
Roosters are level with us (+7) and play 3 top 8 plus Raiders.
We play 3 top 8 plus Raiders.
Sharks are level with us (-54) and play 2 top 8 plus Raiders.
Warriors are level with us (-86) and play 3 top 8 (including us) plus Raiders.
Broncos are 2 behind us (-122) and play 4 top 8 (including us).
Raiders are 6 behind us (-34) and play 6 top 8 (including us) plus Tigers.
Tigers are 6 behind us (-145) and play 3 top 8 plus Raiders.

 

[jane the pain]

I appeciate that it is disappointing how our season is now looking, but there are 7 games left and we need one extra win over the Dragons on the run home just to draw level on number of wins, given that they are already one win in front of us.

So if they win 5/7 and we win 5/7, they finish in front of us regardless of how good our F/A is.

F/A only comes into the equation with us and the Dragons if they win 4/7 and we win 5/7.

Are you always this pessimistic? Who knows what the future holds. The Panthers will play finals this year, for the third convective years.

 

[OldPanther]

 

[tripster]

Are you always this pessimistic? Who knows what the future holds. The Panthers will play finals this year, for the third convective years.

Sure, I appreciate we will play finals. I am just being realistic about our top 4 chances. We can make it, if other results go our way, but it is at this point unlikely.

 

[jane the pain]

Sure, I appreciate we will play finals. I am just being realistic about our top 4 chances. We can make it, if other results go our way, but it is at this point unlikely.

No you're not. You are being totally negative, as per usual.

 

[franklin2323]

Sure, I appreciate we will play finals. I am just being realistic about our top 4 chances. We can make it, if other results go our way, but it is at this point unlikely.

We have a decent run home. Guys coming back if we win 5 we make it.

 

[franklin2323]

Souths will be shown up as pretenders in the run home

 

[Abacus]

No you're not. You are being totally negative, as per usual.

Nah, tripster's not usually a negative poster. Nothing wrong with his post that gives some perspective to the challenge ahead. No doubt Top 4 will be tough - fans of other teams will be thinking the same for their teams although typically their views will be more positive where their team won this weekend.

 

[Abacus]

Souths will be shown up as pretenders in the run home

How so? They've got Tigers twice and the Eels, Broncs and Raiders (both away which admittedly tougher but I'd still tip Souths). I think these games lock them into Top 4.
Otherwise Storm & Roosters. For our Top 4 chances I'd like to see Rabbits beat the Roosters, or hell, happy dor them to beat the Storm too.

 

[franklin2323]

How so? They've got Tigers twice and the Eels, Broncs and Raiders (both away which admittedly tougher but I'd still tip Souths). I think these games lock them into Top 4.
Otherwise Storm & Roosters. For our Top 4 chances I'd like to see Rabbits beat the Roosters, or hell, happy dor them to beat the Storm too.

Tigers are their bogey team injuries will hit these injury free teams sooner or later.

I hope they hang on. Only 3 teams to fear in that finals they aren't one