http://nrl.com.au/News/MatchReports/MatchReportsArticle/tabid/336/NewsId/5858/Default.aspx
NRL.com Match Preview
If you went off the form shown in these two sides most recent games then the Broncos would be looking at racking up at least a half century of points against the struggling Panthers but due to Origin III the Penrith side are a massive hope of climbing away from the wooden spoon zone they currently share with the Dragons.
Its been a horror few weeks for the Penrith club rumours of player/coach rifts and the circus surrounding Craig Gowers on-again/off-again release to French rugby union has taken the focus off the basics it takes to win games.
But while the Panthers will miss fullback Rhys Wesser and hooker Luke Priddis is still apparently in the casualty ward, the Broncos have far more to contend with when it comes to key absences.
The baby Broncos have to front up without Karmichael Hunt, Brent Tate, Justin Hodges, Darren Lockyer, Petero Civoniceva, Tonie Carroll and Shaun Berrigan who are all with the Maroons leaving a side well short on experience.
Considering Hunt (17 runs for 284 metres, nine tackle breaks, two line breaks, one try assist and three tries), Carroll (six runs for 109 metres, seven tackle breaks, two line breaks, 27 tackles and a try) and Civoniceva (17 runs for 145 metres and 18 tackles) were among the best in their 30-point demolition of the Wests Tigers its plain to see their loss will be hard felt.
The Broncos have now run in 119 points in their past two matches played at Suncorp Stadium which has included a total of 25 line breaks and 21 tries, eight coming the way of Hunt and Hodges; but they arent in Brisbane, theyre at the foot of the Blue Mountains and their stars wont be anywhere near the field on game day.
Instead the likes of Denan Kemp, Craig Frawley, Joel Moon, Dave Taylor among others will be charged with keeping the Broncos run back towards the top eight on track.
Watch out Panthers: The Broncos are acutely aware of the soft underbelly that has conceded a league-worst 24 tries up the middle of the ruck.
They also know you have conceded 18 tries from kicks, five tries from dummy half and maybe more importantly nine from over halfway.
The Broncos are the NRLs most potent side from over halfway, having scored 13 tries from 51 or more metres.
Watch out Broncos: Craig Gower has finally settled his future and this is now guaranteed to be his last season at his junior club.
The weight lifted from his shoulders could see the former Test and Origin star find the form that has made him one of the Panthers most exciting players in their history.
Where it will be won: If the baby Broncos can continue to control field position with metres gained running and from the boot they are a hope here as the Panthers are weak in this area.
The Broncos have been averaging 1,407 metres a game running (second in the NRL) while the Panthers are 15th with just 1,235 metres each week. From the boot the Broncos gain 699 metres a game (second) to the Panthers 475 metres (15th).
The last time the baby Broncos played, the team managed to come close to the averages and the result was a solid effort against a strong Manly side.
The History: Played 36; Panthers 13, Broncos 23. The Broncos hold the outright edge both overall and at CUA Stadium (nine wins to eight wins) but the Panthers have managed to win five of the past seven between the two teams, including a golden point thriller early this year.
Conclusion: If the Panthers can limit their errors (they have 210 this year which ranks them the poorest compared to the Broncos who have the third least with 160) and penalties (they have conceded 125 which again is a league-worst) then they should be able to beat the inexperienced Broncos.
Sure the Broncos still have the likes of Brad Thorn, Corey Parker and Greg Eastwood in their line-up but the Panthers are at home and a loss here will give Dragons fans hope of offloading the wooden spoon over the next few weeks.
Match officials: Referee Gavin Badger; Sideline Officials Jason Walsh & Jeff Younis; Video ref Steve Nash.
Televised: Foxsports 3 Live 7.30pm
* Statistics: NRL Stats.
MATCH HISTORY
Head to head
Overall (36 matches) > Brisbane 23 Penrith 13
At CUA (17 matches) > Brisbane 9 Penrith 8
2007 Clash
Penrith 29 Brisbane 28 at Suncorp
2006 Clash
Brisbane 30 Penrith 6 at Suncorp
Biggest Victories
Brisbane 54 Penrith 12 at ANZ, 1997
AND Brisbane 48 Penrith 6 at ANZ, 2000
Penrith 46 Brisbane 20 at Penrith, 2004
BETTING
Penrith 1.70 Brisbane 2.10
LATE MAIL
Brisbane expect their kiddies Eastwood and Stagg to line up despite injury concerns, which will see Mick Roberts and Nick Emmett miss out. Elliott has yet to cull
Penrith's 18th man.