I don't think we've been that lucky. We've been lucky to have minimal injuries but for-and-against is granular enough to show the true quality of a team. Ours is fourth best and we're sitting third, so only a slight element of luck. We are also fourth in the betting, which I think accurately reflects our chances.
I think our defence is quite good (and the stats back it up) - but our attack is schizophrenic.
One play, we set up tries like Gutherson's on Friday, and the next, we dump it off to Paulo, or Nathan Brown, for a hit up.
I know Mahoney, Brown, and - to a lesser extent - Gutherson are all relatively inexperienced, but a backline as potent as ours, steered around by talented halves, shouldn't struggle to score points in the attacking rezone, imo.
Moses seems to be gambling on flashy plays since his return from injury; prior to his injury, his mentality seemed to be "score points, or if we don't have an opening, try to get a repeat set".
Lately, all his options seem to be to try and create points.
Now, that's most likely due to scoreboard pressure, and rustiness, but it's an issue nonetheless.
Mitchell Moses is a bloody good halfback - we have all seen him at his best.
But he is far from his best lately - even his defence, which had improved dramatically in recent months, has regressed.
But we don't exactly have options available, of we were to give Moses a break - Field is a back-up; Salmon (while talented) is inexperienced, and would leave two inexperienced halves to play together; Taikarangi isn't a full-time half; and Smith can't really be trusted in the halves to make good decisions.
Our only genuine option, if we were to rest Moses, would be to slot Gutherson at 5/8, Brown to halfback, and put Smith at fullback (which I think is Smith's best position, anyway).
Or we could put Field at 7, like we did when Moses was injured - but I get the impression that Arthur has soured a little on Field.
As it stands now, I don’t think Moses is offering us enough; our forwards are invariably winning the battle, but Moses seems to be coming up with poor options more often than not, putting more pressure on Mahoney, and Brown.
Moses is too good a player to stay down for long, but for our sake, he needs to get back to his best asap.