This year without having byes makes for a long season, that'll make the week two finals rest very important for mine. It'll be one of the two teams that finish top four and win week one that will take the premiership. The other grand finalist will come from one of the other three, most likely also the week one winner. That week off will be that valuable.
Making top four is more important this year to your chances than any other, so I literally give no chance to any team not making top four.
That means Sharks and Knights are gone, Rabbits only make it if we continue to shit the bed, they still have the Storm and Roosters to play, I don't see them winning both of these, and all things being equal they'll need to win all four remaining games.
Raiders and Roosters could still both make top four at our expense, ( assuming Raiders beat the dogs today ) but they play each other next week, and think the winner of that is all but guaranteed a top four finish, the loser again will be relying on us to shit the bed.
Storm beat Manly today and they are again all but guaranteed.Panthers are there already.
Obviously there's still room for any side in contention to go on a run, or drop off the face of the earth, but three wins will see us finish top four, and two wins I reckon might boil down to by how many we win or lose, because PD comes into play.
I don't really see us beating Penrith again at this point, they are playing to well, so we really need to beat the Warriors next week, which if they bring their best game might well be a big ask. If we can't beat at least one of the Broncos and Tigers, we really don't deserve a top four spot, because we'll be making up the numbers like the rest of whoever finishes from fifth through to eighth.
Edit: forgot my odds............
Penrith 25%
Storm 25%
Roosters 20%
Parra 12.5%
Raiders 12.5%
Rabbits 3%
Newy 1%
Sharks 1%
@Gary Gutful can do the pie chart