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Rd16: Parra v Souths GAME DAY thread (27/8/20)

hindy111

Post Whore
Messages
62,867
I think every club is less than evens to win the comp. But I think we're a chance. How much? At a wild guess I'd say 10%

I reckon the Storm and Roosters are each about 20% depending on how serious their existing injuries are. The Panthers might be a 20% chance too. Souths and Canberra are both about as much chance as we are. All missing a key spine player for the finals.


Id say Roosters are 40%
Storm 30%
Panthers 15%

That leaves 15%
Id give Parra,canbera and Souths 4.5% each and that leaves shakes 1% and knignts 0.5%
 

TheParraboy

Moderator
Staff member
Messages
68,296
Id say Roosters are 40%
Storm 30%
Panthers 15%

That leaves 15%
Id give Parra,canbera and Souths 4.5% each and that leaves shakes 1% and knignts 0.5%


I’d give Penrith more (Storm a bit less) , 11 in a row now??

No Kikau and Api last night, their two best attacking forwards and to be fair easily dismantled the tigers last night
 

Bandwagon

Super Moderator
Staff member
Messages
44,919
This year without having byes makes for a long season, that'll make the week two finals rest very important for mine. It'll be one of the two teams that finish top four and win week one that will take the premiership. The other grand finalist will come from one of the other three, most likely also the week one winner. That week off will be that valuable.

Making top four is more important this year to your chances than any other, so I literally give no chance to any team not making top four.

That means Sharks and Knights are gone, Rabbits only make it if we continue to shit the bed, they still have the Storm and Roosters to play, I don't see them winning both of these, and all things being equal they'll need to win all four remaining games.

Raiders and Roosters could still both make top four at our expense, ( assuming Raiders beat the dogs today ) but they play each other next week, and think the winner of that is all but guaranteed a top four finish, the loser again will be relying on us to shit the bed.

Storm beat Manly today and they are again all but guaranteed.Panthers are there already.

Obviously there's still room for any side in contention to go on a run, or drop off the face of the earth, but three wins will see us finish top four, and two wins I reckon might boil down to by how many we win or lose, because PD comes into play.

I don't really see us beating Penrith again at this point, they are playing to well, so we really need to beat the Warriors next week, which if they bring their best game might well be a big ask. If we can't beat at least one of the Broncos and Tigers, we really don't deserve a top four spot, because we'll be making up the numbers like the rest of whoever finishes from fifth through to eighth.

Edit: forgot my odds............

Penrith 25%
Storm 25%
Roosters 20%
Parra 12.5%
Raiders 12.5%
Rabbits 3%
Newy 1%
Sharks 1%

@Gary Gutful can do the pie chart
 

Gazzamatta

Coach
Messages
15,646
This year without having byes makes for a long season, that'll make the week two finals rest very important for mine. It'll be one of the two teams that finish top four and win week one that will take the premiership. The other grand finalist will come from one of the other three, most likely also the week one winner. That week off will be that valuable.

Making top four is more important this year to your chances than any other, so I literally give no chance to any team not making top four.

That means Sharks and Knights are gone, Rabbits only make it if we continue to shit the bed, they still have the Storm and Roosters to play, I don't see them winning both of these, and all things being equal they'll need to win all four remaining games.

Raiders and Roosters could still both make top four at our expense, ( assuming Raiders beat the dogs today ) but they play each other next week, and think the winner of that is all but guaranteed a top four finish, the loser again will be relying on us to shit the bed.

Storm beat Manly today and they are again all but guaranteed.Panthers are there already.

Obviously there's still room for any side in contention to go on a run, or drop off the face of the earth, but three wins will see us finish top four, and two wins I reckon might boil down to by how many we win or lose, because PD comes into play.

I don't really see us beating Penrith again at this point, they are playing to well, so we really need to beat the Warriors next week, which if they bring their best game might well be a big ask. If we can't beat at least one of the Broncos and Tigers, we really don't deserve a top four spot, because we'll be making up the numbers like the rest of whoever finishes from fifth through to eighth.

Edit: forgot my odds............

Penrith 25%
Storm 25%
Roosters 20%
Parra 12.5%
Raiders 12.5%
Rabbits 3%
Newy 1%
Sharks 1%

@Gary Gutful can do the pie chart
So what you're saying is that our game vrs The Bunnys last Thursday was pretty important. What a pitty coach and players didnt think so.
 

Bandwagon

Super Moderator
Staff member
Messages
44,919
So what you're saying is that our game vrs The Bunnys last Thursday was pretty important. What a pitty coach and players didnt think so.

No, I'm saying exactly what I said, there's no need to reinterpret it.

This weeks game was really no more important than any other game, with the qualification that as the season ends and tightens for places, you run out of games to make up for any losses. Which means each game from the beginning of the season to end of the season becomes ever more important on a progressively upwards curve, the rate of increase of which is governed by the number of losses to date. Until such time as winning or losing does not affect your final standing.

So the Rabbits game only becomes more important retrospectively because we lost, and that makes the Warriors game more important than that again, and so on.
 

Gary Gutful

Post Whore
Messages
52,964
This year without having byes makes for a long season, that'll make the week two finals rest very important for mine. It'll be one of the two teams that finish top four and win week one that will take the premiership. The other grand finalist will come from one of the other three, most likely also the week one winner. That week off will be that valuable.

Making top four is more important this year to your chances than any other, so I literally give no chance to any team not making top four.

That means Sharks and Knights are gone, Rabbits only make it if we continue to shit the bed, they still have the Storm and Roosters to play, I don't see them winning both of these, and all things being equal they'll need to win all four remaining games.

Raiders and Roosters could still both make top four at our expense, ( assuming Raiders beat the dogs today ) but they play each other next week, and think the winner of that is all but guaranteed a top four finish, the loser again will be relying on us to shit the bed.

Storm beat Manly today and they are again all but guaranteed.Panthers are there already.

Obviously there's still room for any side in contention to go on a run, or drop off the face of the earth, but three wins will see us finish top four, and two wins I reckon might boil down to by how many we win or lose, because PD comes into play.

I don't really see us beating Penrith again at this point, they are playing to well, so we really need to beat the Warriors next week, which if they bring their best game might well be a big ask. If we can't beat at least one of the Broncos and Tigers, we really don't deserve a top four spot, because we'll be making up the numbers like the rest of whoever finishes from fifth through to eighth.

Edit: forgot my odds............

Penrith 25%
Storm 25%
Roosters 20%
Parra 12.5%
Raiders 12.5%
Rabbits 3%
Newy 1%
Sharks 1%

@Gary Gutful can do the pie chart
upload_2020-8-30_8-51-18.png
 

Gary Gutful

Post Whore
Messages
52,964
No, I'm saying exactly what I said, there's no need to reinterpret it.

This weeks game was really no more important than any other game, with the qualification that as the season ends and tightens for places, you run out of games to make up for any losses. Which means each game from the beginning of the season to end of the season becomes ever more important on a progressively upwards curve, the rate of increase of which is governed by the number of losses to date. Until such time as winning or losing does not affect your final standing.

So the Rabbits game only becomes more important retrospectively because we lost, and that makes the Warriors game more important than that again, and so on.
Oh, OK so what you are really saying is that we should crack open the heads of the Parra players and feast on the goo inside?
 

Gazzamatta

Coach
Messages
15,646
No, I'm saying exactly what I said, there's no need to reinterpret it.

This weeks game was really no more important than any other game, with the qualification that as the season ends and tightens for places, you run out of games to make up for any losses. Which means each game from the beginning of the season to end of the season becomes ever more important on a progressively upwards curve, the rate of increase of which is governed by the number of losses to date. Until such time as winning or losing does not affect your final standing.

So the Rabbits game only becomes more important retrospectively because we lost, and that makes the Warriors game more important than that again, and so on.
I thought I was agreeing with you. Kinda think I still do even after you qualifying my comment. So I guess if we make the GF that will be the most important game of all. Yep I got it Bandy.
 

84 Baby

Referee
Messages
29,711
This year without having byes makes for a long season, that'll make the week two finals rest very important for mine. It'll be one of the two teams that finish top four and win week one that will take the premiership. The other grand finalist will come from one of the other three, most likely also the week one winner. That week off will be that valuable.

Making top four is more important this year to your chances than any other, so I literally give no chance to any team not making top four.

That means Sharks and Knights are gone, Rabbits only make it if we continue to shit the bed, they still have the Storm and Roosters to play, I don't see them winning both of these, and all things being equal they'll need to win all four remaining games.

Raiders and Roosters could still both make top four at our expense, ( assuming Raiders beat the dogs today ) but they play each other next week, and think the winner of that is all but guaranteed a top four finish, the loser again will be relying on us to shit the bed.

Storm beat Manly today and they are again all but guaranteed.Panthers are there already.

Obviously there's still room for any side in contention to go on a run, or drop off the face of the earth, but three wins will see us finish top four, and two wins I reckon might boil down to by how many we win or lose, because PD comes into play.

I don't really see us beating Penrith again at this point, they are playing to well, so we really need to beat the Warriors next week, which if they bring their best game might well be a big ask. If we can't beat at least one of the Broncos and Tigers, we really don't deserve a top four spot, because we'll be making up the numbers like the rest of whoever finishes from fifth through to eighth.

Edit: forgot my odds............

Penrith 25%
Storm 25%
Roosters 20%
Parra 12.5%
Raiders 12.5%
Rabbits 3%
Newy 1%
Sharks 1%

@Gary Gutful can do the pie chart
Yeah I reckon whoever wins week 1 in top 4 will see their chances go up a lot. Even more so than in other seasons. That’s basically what you were saying, right?
 

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