Rd21 2022: Non Parra games

[hindy111]

Your arguments hinge on a very small number of origin and NRL games. But worse still you casually dismiss 95% of the data by saying they are "huge overachievers". I really don't think you can credibly assess Penrith's "ceiling" given such strong bias.

I didnt say that Penrith has to "not take us seriously". I suggested that they need to be "off slightly". Of course its possible that Penrith and Parra can both be on and Parra wins but I'm suggesting its unlikely where as you are implying its likely. Big call to make based on a handful of games.

There is absolutely no way that you can convince me that Parra at their best are better than Penrith at their best. In fact, I'd argue that most rugby league fans would disagree with this.

They are about to be the first team in History to win 20+ games 3 seasons in a row I think. Its special

 

[emjaycee]

They are about to be the first team in History to win 20+ games 3 seasons in a row I think. Its special

I dont think they won 20+ games in 2020 mate, unless you are including finals matches.

 

[Oscarman]

Geez Canberra are just a bunch of thugs.

 

[King-Gutho94]

Geez Canberra are just a bunch of thugs.

They are led by a weak gutted dog in Ricky.

 

[Soren Lorenson]

I dont think they won 20+ games in 2020 mate, unless you are including finals matches.

*includes theoretical games they would have won without lockdown and also the grand final when they were the better team for the last 20 mins

 

[lucablight]

You are using a couple of wins against Penrith to determine the 'maximum capability' of both sides.

I don't believe I am. I noted that comment in your earlier post and specifically addressed it. The Panthers at their best are better than the eels at their best imo.

One of the games was against a 12 man Panthers sides so I think we can rule that one out. In the other game both teams were good but I dont think the Panthers played as well as they could of.

As I said earlier - Of course its possible that both teams play at their best and Parra win. Rubby league is a game of inches FFS.

I'm saying that its more likely that the Panthers will win if that occurs.


I'm certainly not suggesting that. Given Pou was only talking about 2 games I suspect he wasn't either.

You've overreached and taken very specific comments and tried claim that a much broader point was being made. You do this all the f**ken time mate. You go searching for arguments that were never made in the first place.


Chalk and cheese. Penrith are just as effective as the storm were but they do it in a different way. The talent is spread more evenly across the team.

I’m on my phone so I can’t quote each of your points separately so bear with me. What do you mean I’m using a couple of wins? How else would you do it if not head to head? It’s only really meaningful if you go back to 2020 (when they started dominating) so how do you propose we use a larger sample size? Are you going to use the overall number of games won over the course of the season to say Penrith at their best are better than the Eels at their best? If so then you’re conflating consistency with the peak performance of each side.
If you’re going to say that both teams can play their best and the Eels could win then I’m not even sure what the point of contention is?
You should let Pou speak for himself before saying I’m strawmanning him. I would say you convey your points in a way that seem to indicate one thing and when called out on it you start using semantics to say I’m misrepresenting your position. On the one hand you’re saying the Panthers best is better than the Eels best but then you’re also claiming that it’s possible both teams play their best and the Eels win. Very logical. Penrith are obviously a great team but with that roster they are more than the sum of their parts.

 

[Gary Gutful]

I’m on my phone so I can’t quote each of your points separately so bear with me. What do you mean I’m using a couple of wins? How else would you do it if not head to head? It’s only really meaningful if you go back to 2020 (when they started dominating) so how do you propose we use a larger sample size? Are you going to use the overall number of games won over the course of the season to say Penrith at their best are better than the Eels at their best? If so then you’re conflating consistency with the peak performance of each side.
If you’re going to say that both teams can play their best and the Eels could win then I’m not even sure what the point of contention is?
You should let Pou speak for himself before saying I’m strawmanning him. I would say you convey your points in a way that seem to indicate one thing and when called out on it you start using semantics to say I’m misrepresenting your position. On the one hand you’re saying the Panthers best is better than the Eels best but then you’re also claiming that it’s possible both teams play their best and the Eels win. Very logical. Penrith are obviously a great team but with that roster they are more than the sum of their parts.

Seriously - I reckon I’m more chance in an argument with my wife!

Going to respectfully exit this one and leave it to yourself and Pou. I shouldn’t have jumped in.

 

[lucablight]

Seriously - I reckon I’m more chance in an argument with my wife!

Going to respectfully exit this one and leave it to yourself and Pou. I shouldn’t have jumped in.

It sounds like you have had a Gutful Gary.

 

[Gary Gutful]

It sounds like you have had a Gutful Gary.

I’m a weak-gutted dog!

 

[Poupou Escobar]

If they were so good then NSW wouldn’t have lost 2 of the last 3 origin series.

WTF merkin? NSW didn't lose to an NRL team, they lost to the Queensland side, who if they were an NRL team would finish comfortably above Penrith.

 

[lucablight]

WTF merkin? NSW didn't lose to an NRL team, they lost to the Queensland side, who if they were an NRL team would finish comfortably above Penrith.

If the Penrith origin players were the cream of the crop when it came to elite players they should have won the origin series easily.

 

[strider]

If the Penrith origin players were the cream of the crop when it came to elite players they should have won the origin series easily.

I think at parra's 80s peak we had almost the entire NSW backline ..... but queensland still won games

 

[King-Gutho94]

Not many times we would be cheering for the Dogs.

But today is the one of those days.

 

[strider]

Not many times we would be cheering for the Dogs.

But today is the one of those days.

but it might get their confidence up more .... which isn't ideal for 2 weeks time

 

[King-Gutho94]

but it might get their confidence up more .... which isn't ideal for 2 weeks time

I think they are full of confidence atm.

It will be a tough game regardless.

Hopefully our embarrassing display last time leads to no complancey again and Moses is back on deck.

 

[lucablight]

I think at parra's 80s peak we had almost the entire NSW backline ..... but queensland still won games

I wasn’t around back then so I can’t really make an informed comment on that.

 

[I'm a loser baby...]

That doesn't stop anyone else.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

How am I dismissing most of the data when I acknowledged the fact that Penrith are more consistent? (That’s not even debatable). Again you’re conflating consistency with each teams maximum capability.

I think you're missing the fact that, in a team sport, capability is reflected in results as consistency. Their squad is so strong that in any given game a couple of their stars can have an off day and others will pick up the slack. Weaker teams (like ours) don't have that luxury, or at least not to the same extent. This is how quality translates to consistency. From a results perspective it is the same thing, because for the top teams it all comes out in the wash.

I was responding to Pou saying that we beat Penrith because they didn’t turn up twice. Maybe they were just beaten by the better team on the day?

Exactly my point. If they had played their best then they would have been the better team on the day, regardless of our performance.

It’s nonsensical to say that we can only win if Penrith are below their best.

Not if their best is better than ours.

That’s placing them on a pedestal to which they don’t belong.

Their results are what puts them on a pedestal, and I'm talking results over consecutive seasons, not two cherry-picked games that are only meaningful if you're an Eels fan.

They’re obviously a great team but I just don’t think their players are that good to be doing what they’re doing. How many of their players would you say are on track to be all time greats like the Storm had with Slater, Cronk, Inglis, Munster, Smith? I’d say probably Cleary and maybe Yeo if you’re being generous.

Don't forget Kikau. He is the best edge forward in the game. Compared to Shaun Lane (who is also one of the best) Kikau is better at everything other than ball playing. But Penrith's real strength is the number of high quality defensive players. These are guys who don't get the accolades of the attacking greats like Slater/Munster/et al. But this Penrith side is conceding as few points per game (over three seasons) as the best ever Storm side that was a billion dollars over the cap and had two premierships stripped.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

Kikau,Cleary and Luai out. Canberra in red hot form. I thought they would beat Penrith and best them well.
It shows what a side they are. Very well coached.

Or just so strong defensively that it doesn't matter if some attacking players are out?

 

[Poupou Escobar]

If the Penrith origin players were the cream of the crop when it came to elite players they should have won the origin series easily.

Where's the logic there? I think you are making plenty of unexamined assumptions about the quality of the NSW side, not to mention the opposition.