Recruitment - Newcastle's Version Of " Moneyball "

[Karmawave]

What the hell do you mean by that last line Karma? Did you expect us to go sign someone like Cameron Smith to replace Buderus easily?

No no, my point being that no matter who we signed for Buderus, it would be a downgrade overall.

I think Hilder/De Gois will more than do the job, and if anything it could work out for the best because neither will probably be playing an rep football next year so it could give the 9 position 26 round stability that we haven't had for many years given Buderus annual rep duty.

 

[perverse]

No no, my point being that no matter who we signed for Buderus, it would be a downgrade overall.

I think Hilder/De Gois will more than do the job, and if anything it could work out for the best because neither will probably be playing an rep football next year so it could give the 9 position 26 round stability that we haven't had for many years given Buderus annual rep duty.

hilder, de gois and kidley will all do their part to fill the massive chasm left by buderus... however they are more than capable of doing it, while also adding their own distinct strengths to the team. you can already see that buderus' absence has a lesser effect on the team than it has in the past... and we haven't even had hilder OR de gois over the past few weeks since origin.

 

[BG]

you can already see that buderus' absence has a lesser effect on the team than it has in the past... and we haven't even had hilder OR de gois over the past few weeks since origin.

Good observation, Perverse. I think the past few weeks shows extraordinary depth in the club and an emerging resolve among our young players that augurs well for the coming seasons.

We haven't been terrific past month, but all them teams we have been playing are in the top 8 and we have been more than competitive with our entire starting front row, best utility and three or four other experienced players unavailable. Other teams like the Bulldogs and Cowboys have completely fallen apart with similar injury woes.

 

[Karmawave]

Does having a good for/against and being competitive matter all that much if we still sit 12th on the ladder? There were times when Johns was playing 7 and we were in the semis every year where some games we'd lose by 30 - 40 points but still be there at the end of the year.

As a famous NFL coach/owner Al Davis once said ' Just win baby '...

I mean everyone here has a pet hate in Hagan, but the reality is, after 19 rounds of football, we are a measly 26 point better team than Parramatta for/against wise and sitting on the same amount of points.

 

[cram]

Does having a good for/against and being competitive matter all that much if we still sit 12th on the ladder? There were times when Johns was playing 7 and we were in the semis every year where some games we'd lose by 30 - 40 points but still be there at the end of the year.

As a famous NFL coach/owner Al Davis once said ' Just win baby '...

I mean everyone here has a pet hate in Hagan, but the reality is, after 19 rounds of football, we are a measly 26 point better team than Parramatta for/against wise and sitting on the same amount of points.

You are right to say that you need quote Al Davis because at the end of the day thats what counts.

A team needs to be able to score points and also defend and the best sides are doing that. For that reason I think the Sharks will not progress very far no matter how far up the ladder they progress because you need to able to score points to "....win baby".

I think what people are happy about at present is that in the past we have not shown any resolve in terms of defence At present we have that.

We are in a rebuilding phase, it will take time.

At the end of the day Hagans Team finished higher on the ladder then us last year, they were also touted as the only team to challenge the Storm. So if you want to comapre them, compare them against this years result and last years. What will that tell you???

 

[Prodigiousman]

Having read Moneyball a few years ago (leant it to a mate and never saw it again!) I am not sure Newcastle quite fit the Oakland As mold quite yet - basically because its been too soon since Andrew Johns retired to make that comparison.

Canberra probably fit the bill a bit better just without the regular season success the Oakland A's had at the turn of the century in MLB. When Daley had moved on following on from the Clyde-Stuart debarcle - Canberra reloaded their roster with a bunch of average footballers, hit a home run with Clinton Schifcofske and a few solid doubles with Ryan O'Hara, Brad Drew, Ian Hindmarsh and Adam Mogg. Coupled with some solid veterans who were still around - Ruben Wiki, Mark McLinden, Jason Croker, Luke Davico, Simon Woolford etc - the team had the ability to regroup by 2003 and make the Top 4 that season.

Then the sell off/restock began again once 2004 saw the team struggle to make the playoffs and over the next 12-24 months - McLinden walked to England as did Davico, Wiki to the Warriors, Drew to England, O'Hara to Tigers (one big ouch if you're a Tigers fan), Jason Smith and Matt Adamson arrive, and eventually Schifcofske leaves.

All the while the youngsters/juniors were being brought through (how well this was done depends on what your view of Matt Elliott as a coach is) and the club has got to a point where they'll either bring out the best in their talent or have to retool again next year if they fail to make the Finals this season.

But as Karmawave said before - rebuilding sucks! But the Moneyball system is all about rebuilding and simply hoping that if you make the big dance at the end of the year simply being solid is good enough when the big games begin. Consistency can get you into the playoffs of any sport - but if you haven't got the top tier brilliance it doesn't often translate to titles.

For the Knights they were always going to struggle post Johns in the player market - and although Buderus isn't quite the gamebreaker he was in the Joey tandem - he's going to be a huge loss for the side - particularly in the recruitment stakes.

I'm a big fan of the way Brian Smith can come in and focus a club to his ideal culture/footballing system - he's done a great job getting the squad to play for each other but he's working with less top end talent than he had in the initial years at Parramatta.

Personally I had the Knights in the bottom 4 this season - when I had to predict what full strength sides would accomplish (with no injuries factored in - because let's be honest you can't predict that) - and if they end up there I wouldn't qualify the season as a failure at all. But you've played better than most sides that end up in the bottom rung of the ladder.

Looking towards next year the club should have Ben Cross healthy, De Gois as the new hooker, Mullen running the team and Gidley doing what he does best in his best position of fullback. If Steve Simpson can play like he did against the Warriors before Origin II more often (getting on the field would be nice too) he's the cornerstone of the pack with Cross. These days you can get away with not having a plethora of gun forwards if your backline can score points - look at Melbourne realistically a few years ago only Cameron Smith was a star in that pack and the likes of Hoffman, Johnson, Crocker have stepped up in a big way to make that pack above average (but personally I can't see how Brett White is playing first grade let alone Origin...) and they've had Lima, Kaufusi, Cross, Crossman, Blair etc evolve from fringe first graders to good players in that system.

In short - you're a chance for Finals football with a roster like that.

Because the reality of the NRL these days is simply this - if you've got a handful of quality players you've got a chance at the Finals if lady luck smiles on you during the season (if injury/suspension/urination don't become a factor). The days of there being 4 or 5 gun sides each season and the rest making up the numbers are gone and that's because the quality of rosters has fallen with the advent of the cap, super league poaching and generally just the lack of footballers now playing the game as opposed to athletes. The game isn't better than it was even half a dozen years ago but it is a more level playing field. But that level playing field has come at the expense of the quality of the game and in turn the ability for clubs to realistically build a dynasty the right way anymore.

So as a result the Moneyball way is attractive for clubs because at the end of the day you still get the punters through the gates because of the eveness of the competition and you don't have to put all of your eggs in one player's basket anymore to win a comp. Because if you do and that player gets injured you've actually got less of a chance of making the Finals than you would've with a solid roster devoid of a real star.

Granted I've waffled a bit ladies and gents but that'll happen...

 

[cram]

Having read Moneyball a few years ago (leant it to a mate and never saw it again!) I am not sure Newcastle quite fit the Oakland As mold quite yet - basically because its been too soon since Andrew Johns retired to make that comparison.

Canberra probably fit the bill a bit better just without the regular season success the Oakland A's had at the turn of the century in MLB. When Daley had moved on following on from the Clyde-Stuart debarcle - Canberra reloaded their roster with a bunch of average footballers, hit a home run with Clinton Schifcofske and a few solid doubles with Ryan O'Hara, Brad Drew, Ian Hindmarsh and Adam Mogg. Coupled with some solid veterans who were still around - Ruben Wiki, Mark McLinden, Jason Croker, Luke Davico, Simon Woolford etc - the team had the ability to regroup by 2003 and make the Top 4 that season.

Then the sell off/restock began again once 2004 saw the team struggle to make the playoffs and over the next 12-24 months - McLinden walked to England as did Davico, Wiki to the Warriors, Drew to England, O'Hara to Tigers (one big ouch if you're a Tigers fan), Jason Smith and Matt Adamson arrive, and eventually Schifcofske leaves.

All the while the youngsters/juniors were being brought through (how well this was done depends on what your view of Matt Elliott as a coach is) and the club has got to a point where they'll either bring out the best in their talent or have to retool again next year if they fail to make the Finals this season.

But as Karmawave said before - rebuilding sucks! But the Moneyball system is all about rebuilding and simply hoping that if you make the big dance at the end of the year simply being solid is good enough when the big games begin. Consistency can get you into the playoffs of any sport - but if you haven't got the top tier brilliance it doesn't often translate to titles.

For the Knights they were always going to struggle post Johns in the player market - and although Buderus isn't quite the gamebreaker he was in the Joey tandem - he's going to be a huge loss for the side - particularly in the recruitment stakes.

I'm a big fan of the way Brian Smith can come in and focus a club to his ideal culture/footballing system - he's done a great job getting the squad to play for each other but he's working with less top end talent than he had in the initial years at Parramatta.

Personally I had the Knights in the bottom 4 this season - when I had to predict what full strength sides would accomplish (with no injuries factored in - because let's be honest you can't predict that) - and if they end up there I wouldn't qualify the season as a failure at all. But you've played better than most sides that end up in the bottom rung of the ladder.

Looking towards next year the club should have Ben Cross healthy, De Gois as the new hooker, Mullen running the team and Gidley doing what he does best in his best position of fullback. If Steve Simpson can play like he did against the Warriors before Origin II more often (getting on the field would be nice too) he's the cornerstone of the pack with Cross. These days you can get away with not having a plethora of gun forwards if your backline can score points - look at Melbourne realistically a few years ago only Cameron Smith was a star in that pack and the likes of Hoffman, Johnson, Crocker have stepped up in a big way to make that pack above average (but personally I can't see how Brett White is playing first grade let alone Origin...) and they've had Lima, Kaufusi, Cross, Crossman, Blair etc evolve from fringe first graders to good players in that system.

In short - you're a chance for Finals football with a roster like that.

Because the reality of the NRL these days is simply this - if you've got a handful of quality players you've got a chance at the Finals if lady luck smiles on you during the season (if injury/suspension/urination don't become a factor). The days of there being 4 or 5 gun sides each season and the rest making up the numbers are gone and that's because the quality of rosters has fallen with the advent of the cap, super league poaching and generally just the lack of footballers now playing the game as opposed to athletes. The game isn't better than it was even half a dozen years ago but it is a more level playing field. But that level playing field has come at the expense of the quality of the game and in turn the ability for clubs to realistically build a dynasty the right way anymore.

So as a result the Moneyball way is attractive for clubs because at the end of the day you still get the punters through the gates because of the eveness of the competition and you don't have to put all of your eggs in one player's basket anymore to win a comp. Because if you do and that player gets injured you've actually got less of a chance of making the Finals than you would've with a solid roster devoid of a real star.

Granted I've waffled a bit ladies and gents but that'll happen...

Waffle aside, :lol:, I think you make good sense...

 

[Karmawave]

Having read Moneyball a few years ago (leant it to a mate and never saw it again!) I am not sure Newcastle quite fit the Oakland As mold quite yet - basically because its been too soon since Andrew Johns retired to make that comparison.

Canberra probably fit the bill a bit better just without the regular season success the Oakland A's had at the turn of the century in MLB. When Daley had moved on following on from the Clyde-Stuart debarcle - Canberra reloaded their roster with a bunch of average footballers, hit a home run with Clinton Schifcofske and a few solid doubles with Ryan O'Hara, Brad Drew, Ian Hindmarsh and Adam Mogg. Coupled with some solid veterans who were still around - Ruben Wiki, Mark McLinden, Jason Croker, Luke Davico, Simon Woolford etc - the team had the ability to regroup by 2003 and make the Top 4 that season.

Then the sell off/restock began again once 2004 saw the team struggle to make the playoffs and over the next 12-24 months - McLinden walked to England as did Davico, Wiki to the Warriors, Drew to England, O'Hara to Tigers (one big ouch if you're a Tigers fan), Jason Smith and Matt Adamson arrive, and eventually Schifcofske leaves.

All the while the youngsters/juniors were being brought through (how well this was done depends on what your view of Matt Elliott as a coach is) and the club has got to a point where they'll either bring out the best in their talent or have to retool again next year if they fail to make the Finals this season.

But as Karmawave said before - rebuilding sucks! But the Moneyball system is all about rebuilding and simply hoping that if you make the big dance at the end of the year simply being solid is good enough when the big games begin. Consistency can get you into the playoffs of any sport - but if you haven't got the top tier brilliance it doesn't often translate to titles.

For the Knights they were always going to struggle post Johns in the player market - and although Buderus isn't quite the gamebreaker he was in the Joey tandem - he's going to be a huge loss for the side - particularly in the recruitment stakes.

I'm a big fan of the way Brian Smith can come in and focus a club to his ideal culture/footballing system - he's done a great job getting the squad to play for each other but he's working with less top end talent than he had in the initial years at Parramatta.

Personally I had the Knights in the bottom 4 this season - when I had to predict what full strength sides would accomplish (with no injuries factored in - because let's be honest you can't predict that) - and if they end up there I wouldn't qualify the season as a failure at all. But you've played better than most sides that end up in the bottom rung of the ladder.

Looking towards next year the club should have Ben Cross healthy, De Gois as the new hooker, Mullen running the team and Gidley doing what he does best in his best position of fullback. If Steve Simpson can play like he did against the Warriors before Origin II more often (getting on the field would be nice too) he's the cornerstone of the pack with Cross. These days you can get away with not having a plethora of gun forwards if your backline can score points - look at Melbourne realistically a few years ago only Cameron Smith was a star in that pack and the likes of Hoffman, Johnson, Crocker have stepped up in a big way to make that pack above average (but personally I can't see how Brett White is playing first grade let alone Origin...) and they've had Lima, Kaufusi, Cross, Crossman, Blair etc evolve from fringe first graders to good players in that system.

In short - you're a chance for Finals football with a roster like that.

Because the reality of the NRL these days is simply this - if you've got a handful of quality players you've got a chance at the Finals if lady luck smiles on you during the season (if injury/suspension/urination don't become a factor). The days of there being 4 or 5 gun sides each season and the rest making up the numbers are gone and that's because the quality of rosters has fallen with the advent of the cap, super league poaching and generally just the lack of footballers now playing the game as opposed to athletes. The game isn't better than it was even half a dozen years ago but it is a more level playing field. But that level playing field has come at the expense of the quality of the game and in turn the ability for clubs to realistically build a dynasty the right way anymore.

So as a result the Moneyball way is attractive for clubs because at the end of the day you still get the punters through the gates because of the eveness of the competition and you don't have to put all of your eggs in one player's basket anymore to win a comp. Because if you do and that player gets injured you've actually got less of a chance of making the Finals than you would've with a solid roster devoid of a real star.

Granted I've waffled a bit ladies and gents but that'll happen...

Great post, and I definitely believe Canberra are in exactly the same situation as well - probably fitting the " moneyball " mould even more than Newcastle do.

Though I would give Canberra's recruitment for 2009 a higher grade than Newcastle's recruiting for 2009 ( so far )

I guess in this day and age, I think it is just as important to have a team that you can get excited about. Who has a good image. Exciting players. Players who will put bums on seats and add to the end of year revenue. We have Kurt Gidley. Next year following him we have Jarrod Mullen, who would make Phil Mickelson seem exciting. Uate has potential to be a cult hero, but then again so did Vuna and it never really happened. That could be more the marketing department fault as the player. I think building that solid team might work to win some games, but does it make supporting the Newcastle Knights cool again?

As it stands, if you are aged 15,16 in Newcastle, it is cool to support the Newcastle Jets. But it is totally uncool to support the Newcastle Knights. It is that age demographic that go to games and buy lots of merchandise and food.

Add a player like a Jarrod Sammut ( just an example ) to what we have, and all of a sudden there's a spark. A crowd pleaser who people will want to go to a live game to watch in action.

Brilliant post anyway mate, and feel free to waffle on, I do it all the time. :lol:

 

[macavity]

As it stands, if you are aged 15,16 in Newcastle, it is cool to support the Newcastle Jets. But it is totally uncool to support the Newcastle Knights. It is that age demographic that go to games and buy lots of merchandise and food.

it really is that age demographic we are missing. I dont think its because of the players though. I reckon it has a lot to do with a generation of soccer playing mummys-boy turdlets running around about now. the generation whose mums want to wrap their spoilt brat little princesses in cotton wool. ask any teacher they will tell you all about it. kids these days are spoilt, soft and bratty. and jets fans.

/end old man rant

 

[Serc]

lol Mac, it sure is a bit that way these days (my mum's been a high school teacher for 30 years and speaks similarly)

I guess in this day and age, I think it is just as important to have a team that you can get excited about. Who has a good image. Exciting players. Players who will put bums on seats and add to the end of year revenue. We have Kurt Gidley. Next year following him we have Jarrod Mullen, who would make Phil Mickelson seem exciting.

But Phil is more exciting than your average golfer on the US Tour...think of him like an Inglis or a Bowen, he's one of the top 10 players in the comp, he hits it as long as most and has more trick shots in his bag than anyone else!

Hang on, don't you start knocking Mullo either, next thing we'll hear from you is that we should be signing Anasta and Pearce

 

[Adsy]

it really is that age demographic we are missing. I dont think its because of the players though. I reckon it has a lot to do with a generation of soccer playing mummys-boy turdlets running around about now. the generation whose mums want to wrap their spoilt brat little princesses in cotton wool. ask any teacher they will tell you all about it. kids these days are spoilt, soft and bratty. and jets fans.

/end old man rant

Great post. So true as well.

I do some work for the Mariners and the teenagers that come to the games are so annoying and mumas boys is a great name for them.

 

[Karmawave]

kids these days are spoilt, soft and bratty.

But that sounds exactly like me?! :lol:

 

[Yosh]

Compared to Jarrod Sammut, Uate is a class ahead in terms of excitment...

 

[Karmawave]

But Phil is more exciting than your average golfer on the US Tour...think of him like an Inglis or a Bowen, he's one of the top 10 players in the comp, he hits it as long as most and has more trick shots in his bag than anyone else!

I wasn't talking about his ability.

I am talking about his image. His non golf personna. His snoozefest, safety first quotes. His lull you to sleep press conferences. Mickelson is BORING.

He is as about as Vanilla as a sportsman gets.

 

[Karmawave]

Compared to Jarrod Sammut, Uate is a class ahead in terms of excitment...

Not about comparing them Yosh.

I said Uate has the potential to be a real cult figure. But so did Vuna.

I'd like to see Uate on the wing, and some Sammutt like brashness and excitement in the halves.

Again, I'm just using Sammut as an example. Not the be all and end all.

A player of his personna, a cult figure. Someone that can ENHANCE the role of the club from the perspective of attracting people to games and new fans. Wingers can only do so much in that sense. Having that zazz in the halves or centres, the playmakers, is the real appeal to fans, and you'll find across other teams that is exactly what they have.

What about the brand spanking new website the Knights have? And then players like Royal, Naiqama, Houston, Wicks float across the main page in flash... :lol:

Hey next year we have De Gois in flash! Yay.

 

[Serc]

I wasn't talking about his ability.

I am talking about his image. His non golf personna. His snoozefest, safety first quotes. His lull you to sleep press conferences. Mickelson is BORING.

He is as about as Vanilla as a sportsman gets.

Yeah I agree, there are lots of boring golf personas though! I like to look at them on how they are on the course...anyway yes he is boring.