The Informer
Juniors
- Messages
- 274
Dragons v Knights
$1.50 v $2.50 head to head
Dragons have won 8 last 10 at Kogarah, Knights have lost 5 last 7 at same ground. Dragons errors low, completions high last week, touch of skill and luck (intercept try) got them home. Their combinations with numerous new inclusions will improve with the run and always hard to beat here. Knights rarely win without Johns and Buderus, looked very soft for 30 mins prior to half time with 24 points put on them pretty easily. 81% completions, 31 dummy half runs, low errors all reads well, but I'm not convinced. Simple attack and considerable emphasis on defence will be their focus. I couldn't bet here with any confidence although favour Dragons at Kogarah.
Penrith v Bulldogs
$2.65 v $1.45 head to head
Doggies have a good recent record over Penrith anywhere, won 4 last 6 and won last 2 at Penrith. Don't like the form of either side out of game 1. Penrith failed to score, high errors, ordinary handling, looked flat. Dogs are with out Williams, Hughes and Utai, the forward depth looks quite thin (add Asotasi, Myles and Grimildi who are gone to that injured list and that's 5 quality forwards missing from last yrs list), ordinary ball control and high errors last wk. I think they are still being thought of as who they were, not what they might be now. Panthers have Pritchard back which is significant, he is like a Johns or Lockyer is to their clubs sides when in form, prefer their forward line up in size and depth here and I'd suggest Elliott will have them quite wound up to to bounce back. At the odds which ever way they are good value this week for mine.
Super Saturday looks like delivering some ugly results.
Tigers v Eagles
$1.70 v $2.10 head to head
I can't believe the markets here, Tigers $1.70 or $1.90 at the line -2.5. Hello, someone hasn't been watching imo. Tigers have won 9 of last 10 at Leichhardt, Eagles have a poor record here losing last 3 at ground, will be with out Menzies, Matai, Orford and Stewart in doubt and or will play carrying leg injuries, thin forward depth, not good. Tigers come through strong form game in my view v's Storm away, have all key players on deck and should be winning 13+, the -2.5 is money for jam.
Raiders v Storm
$4.25 v $1.20 head to head
Raiders inexperience showed under some pressure last week, terrible handling, high errors, poor result. Now missing 4 key forwards, they’ll have some trouble one would expect with this game this week. Storm have won their last 3 at Canberra, expect this to be by a margin.
Cowboys v Roosters
$1.20 v $4.25 head to head
Had the ball stuck after half time with a 10 point lead I though the Cowboys could have dusted up the Broncos. They'll improve with combination, Smith a big plus, now allows Bowen to be playing a little wider which will hurt many. They are again playing a high offload and passing game which is going to punish some, this might well be the first. Roosters will be stung from a poor effort on Monday, but not sure what more they have to offer, expect their one marker plan and defence pattern in general will be well and truly tested here, throw in the shot back up from Monday night, Cowboys 13+.
Warriors v Broncos
$1.50 v $2.50 head to head
Pretty even record between these two, 2 each of last 4, 2 each of last 4 at Mt Smart. Broncos lose Lockyer and Parker which is obviously significant, both also the proven goal kickers. Thought the scoreboard looked closer than it was last week with poor handling (62%), high missed tackles, 27 dummy half runs, not how the Broncs would have wanted to start. They'll be rusty at 7 and 6 for some weeks as to be expected, might well see Moon also used around the halves and the probable goal kicker. Up against a mob with plenty of grunt up front, speed and skill behind it, confidence up and back on their own dung hill. This is a test if they are top 4 contenders this yr, Warriors hard to beat back at the line -5.5.
Souths v Eels
$1.80 v $1.95 head to head
Find this game very hard to read. Warriors got away quickly on the Eels but their game didn't read as badly as the score, more so the amount of ball the Warriors had through the first 25 as opposed to any high error play from the Eels. With a little more ball and control the 2nd session read ok and evened out from 0 - 24 to 18 - 10. Souths handled the first assignment well, word is they have been composed since (as opposed to getting carried away Monday night) and will be focusing on the job at hand, putting a few back to back. I favour the confidence and composure of the Rabbits at the moment, but this looks a tight affair and an Eels bounce back would not surprise.
Titans v Sharks
$1.65 v $2.20 head to head
Titans start fav's again, lol. Their stats read well through last week. First game, some pressure, handled it ok and will improve. General errors were ok aside from Campbell (looking for him to bounce back), and interesting that they played a high number off offloads across their game reflecting their preparedness to shift the footy which will help them plenty if it begins to click. Sharks have far more of a plan, scored 2 tries off set plays in their attacking 20 which is something they've had no idea about in the past few years and held their line ok although not really questioned. Stuart is keeping things pretty simple at this stage, high completions, low errors, simple 1 and 2 pass plays. Worry is a poor away record in general and whether their game is a little too basic if they get behind quickly. Probably Titans at home.
Bets this week.
Anchor. Tigers -2.5 $1.90 x Storm -12.5 $1.90 x Cowboys -12.5 $1.85 x Warriors -5.5 $1.90 = $12.68 / 1
Speculator 1. Penrith H to H $2.65 x Tigers -2.5 $1.90 x Storm -12.5 $1.90 x Cowboys -12.5 $1.85 x Warriors -5.5 $1.90 = $33.62 / 1
Speculator 2. Penrith 1-12 $4.25 x Tigers 13+ $3.10 x Storm -12.5 $1.90 x Cowboys -12.5 $1.90 x Warriors -5.5 $1.90 = $102.02 / 1
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$1.50 v $2.50 head to head
Dragons have won 8 last 10 at Kogarah, Knights have lost 5 last 7 at same ground. Dragons errors low, completions high last week, touch of skill and luck (intercept try) got them home. Their combinations with numerous new inclusions will improve with the run and always hard to beat here. Knights rarely win without Johns and Buderus, looked very soft for 30 mins prior to half time with 24 points put on them pretty easily. 81% completions, 31 dummy half runs, low errors all reads well, but I'm not convinced. Simple attack and considerable emphasis on defence will be their focus. I couldn't bet here with any confidence although favour Dragons at Kogarah.
Penrith v Bulldogs
$2.65 v $1.45 head to head
Doggies have a good recent record over Penrith anywhere, won 4 last 6 and won last 2 at Penrith. Don't like the form of either side out of game 1. Penrith failed to score, high errors, ordinary handling, looked flat. Dogs are with out Williams, Hughes and Utai, the forward depth looks quite thin (add Asotasi, Myles and Grimildi who are gone to that injured list and that's 5 quality forwards missing from last yrs list), ordinary ball control and high errors last wk. I think they are still being thought of as who they were, not what they might be now. Panthers have Pritchard back which is significant, he is like a Johns or Lockyer is to their clubs sides when in form, prefer their forward line up in size and depth here and I'd suggest Elliott will have them quite wound up to to bounce back. At the odds which ever way they are good value this week for mine.
Super Saturday looks like delivering some ugly results.
Tigers v Eagles
$1.70 v $2.10 head to head
I can't believe the markets here, Tigers $1.70 or $1.90 at the line -2.5. Hello, someone hasn't been watching imo. Tigers have won 9 of last 10 at Leichhardt, Eagles have a poor record here losing last 3 at ground, will be with out Menzies, Matai, Orford and Stewart in doubt and or will play carrying leg injuries, thin forward depth, not good. Tigers come through strong form game in my view v's Storm away, have all key players on deck and should be winning 13+, the -2.5 is money for jam.
Raiders v Storm
$4.25 v $1.20 head to head
Raiders inexperience showed under some pressure last week, terrible handling, high errors, poor result. Now missing 4 key forwards, they’ll have some trouble one would expect with this game this week. Storm have won their last 3 at Canberra, expect this to be by a margin.
Cowboys v Roosters
$1.20 v $4.25 head to head
Had the ball stuck after half time with a 10 point lead I though the Cowboys could have dusted up the Broncos. They'll improve with combination, Smith a big plus, now allows Bowen to be playing a little wider which will hurt many. They are again playing a high offload and passing game which is going to punish some, this might well be the first. Roosters will be stung from a poor effort on Monday, but not sure what more they have to offer, expect their one marker plan and defence pattern in general will be well and truly tested here, throw in the shot back up from Monday night, Cowboys 13+.
Warriors v Broncos
$1.50 v $2.50 head to head
Pretty even record between these two, 2 each of last 4, 2 each of last 4 at Mt Smart. Broncos lose Lockyer and Parker which is obviously significant, both also the proven goal kickers. Thought the scoreboard looked closer than it was last week with poor handling (62%), high missed tackles, 27 dummy half runs, not how the Broncs would have wanted to start. They'll be rusty at 7 and 6 for some weeks as to be expected, might well see Moon also used around the halves and the probable goal kicker. Up against a mob with plenty of grunt up front, speed and skill behind it, confidence up and back on their own dung hill. This is a test if they are top 4 contenders this yr, Warriors hard to beat back at the line -5.5.
Souths v Eels
$1.80 v $1.95 head to head
Find this game very hard to read. Warriors got away quickly on the Eels but their game didn't read as badly as the score, more so the amount of ball the Warriors had through the first 25 as opposed to any high error play from the Eels. With a little more ball and control the 2nd session read ok and evened out from 0 - 24 to 18 - 10. Souths handled the first assignment well, word is they have been composed since (as opposed to getting carried away Monday night) and will be focusing on the job at hand, putting a few back to back. I favour the confidence and composure of the Rabbits at the moment, but this looks a tight affair and an Eels bounce back would not surprise.
Titans v Sharks
$1.65 v $2.20 head to head
Titans start fav's again, lol. Their stats read well through last week. First game, some pressure, handled it ok and will improve. General errors were ok aside from Campbell (looking for him to bounce back), and interesting that they played a high number off offloads across their game reflecting their preparedness to shift the footy which will help them plenty if it begins to click. Sharks have far more of a plan, scored 2 tries off set plays in their attacking 20 which is something they've had no idea about in the past few years and held their line ok although not really questioned. Stuart is keeping things pretty simple at this stage, high completions, low errors, simple 1 and 2 pass plays. Worry is a poor away record in general and whether their game is a little too basic if they get behind quickly. Probably Titans at home.
Bets this week.
Anchor. Tigers -2.5 $1.90 x Storm -12.5 $1.90 x Cowboys -12.5 $1.85 x Warriors -5.5 $1.90 = $12.68 / 1
Speculator 1. Penrith H to H $2.65 x Tigers -2.5 $1.90 x Storm -12.5 $1.90 x Cowboys -12.5 $1.85 x Warriors -5.5 $1.90 = $33.62 / 1
Speculator 2. Penrith 1-12 $4.25 x Tigers 13+ $3.10 x Storm -12.5 $1.90 x Cowboys -12.5 $1.90 x Warriors -5.5 $1.90 = $102.02 / 1
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