Rabbitohs v Bulldogs
$2.25 H to H $1.60
+3.5 $1.90 Line $1.90 -3.5
One of the games of the round and a nice test for the undefeated Rabbitohs. No ground advantage as both play out of here, Rabbitohs have won 3 of their last 4 here, Bulldogs also enjoy a good record here, 71% in 06. For mine the figures around the Bunnies tell the story, high completions (90% last two weeks), low errors (amazingly under 5 each of the last 2 games) and strong defence (16, 6 and 6 against), importantly they stay fit with the same 17 again. Doggies are slowing improving and I expect a lift for this contest but for mine their form is not at the same mark. Think the Rabbitohs power through their 7 and 8 man forward game and general game control shown to date will be too strong here. The bookies continue to bet against the Rabbitohs on history, not their current form, opening as outsiders for the 4th week in a row.
Roosters v Broncos
$3.50 H to H $1.35
+8.5 $1.90 Line $1.90 -8.5
Two recent premiers matching up in round 4 on a Friday night both 0 and 3!!! The Broncos form reads a stronger line through Panthers, Warriors and Cowboys. Tupou is a big plus for the Roosters, Monaghan will help and the names line up will probably include numerous last minute changes as Anderson juggles things toward improvement. The Broncos have been exposed up the middle through the last few weeks with their weakened forward line up but this is the weakest forward opposition they have met and I don't expect to present as many problems. The Broncos have won their last 3 over the Roosters at the ground and I expect their self confidence and hunger to turn things around to be too strong here, take the line.
Knights v Storm
$2.40 H to H $1.53
+4.5 $1.90 Line $1.90 -4.5
Did the Knights get exposed by the Raiders, or did they turn up a little complacent? Maybe a bit of both but I do think they might well struggle against teams with speed and skill that can get an up tempo game going like the Raiders did. And now they meet the Storm. Speed, skill, up tempo, mmm sort of game style the Storm have been playing very well through the last 18 mths isn't it? Storm are 4 of last 5 over Knights, have won 2 of last 3 at the ground, Knights come off a short back up, Buderus back a plus. Storm still look in 2nd gear to me with the adjustments of Inglis to 5/8 elements of their attack are still rusty, and although never in doubt last week they did turn some ball over (completions only 59%). Expect further improvement from the Storm, the line bet the best bet of the round.
Cowboys v Tigers
$1.25 H to H $3.75
-10.5 $1.90 Line $1.90 +10.5
Jason Smith and Whatuira expected to play improvements to both sides. Cowboys are ticking over nicely but the Tigers are never an easy assignment for them having lost 4 last 5 against them, however at the ground a considerable advantage with the Tigers having only won 1 of their last 7 visits there. Tigers form reads better than 0 and 3 but they still look well short of their 05 form, in particular they do look to miss the attack influence of Prince. They are also on the back of a poor away record at present winning only 20% across the last 14 mths. Cowboys to win at home but Tigers to give this a little more of a shake than some might expect.
Eels v Raiders
$1.45 H to H $2.65
-6.5 $1.90 Line $1.90 +6.5
Anyone who wants to take $1.45 the Eels at present needs medical assistance, especially on the back of a golden point win aided by two intercept tries. Eels have won 5 of last 7 at home but they do have trouble with the Raiders, losing 5 of their last 7 against them. Raiders have won 2 of the last 4 v Eels at the ground and although a short back up they are young and now brimming with confidence. The form line through the Raiders reads better than some might think against 2 top 4 undefeated sides and a touch up of a prior unbeaten side. Eels don't look flash to me at present, grinding and limping through each week with little apparent cohesion, I don't know that there is alot there if the question can be put to them. I think the Raiders are improving and their speed and skill will worry the Eels if they can get their up tempo game happening. Happy to take the risk here and back the Raiders improvement.
Sea Eagles v Warriors
$1.50 H to H $2.50
-5.5 $1.90 Line $1.90 +5.5
Looking forward to this game, will tell us much more about both sides. Eagles look to have come through a softer approach, but importantly they have done so with our key players something they might not have done in recent yrs. The attack still looks disjointed but Orford's pending return should add some improvement, their defence reads well, they are hard to beat at home (65% each of last 2 yrs) winning 6 of their last 8 their, But interestingly enough they have lost their last 4 home games v's the Warriors (05, 04, 03, 99). I like the form through the Warriors, Storm last week, Broncos the week before, dropped a little with their first away game, this is a telling test. This is the best forward line up the Eagles have met this yr, expect that to be telling, I also though the Warriors looked pretty dirty with themselves with their general game last week I expect them to lift and hit back here. It they are top 4 contenders as I think they are at this stage then they need to be able to. Warriors.
Panthers v Titans
$1.30 H to H $3.30
-9.5 $1.90 Line $1.90 +9.5
Panthers should be to strong at home for a willing Titans. Panthers use of the forward size and shift of the footy is coming together nicely. Titans face their 2nd away game while some minor injuries look to be starting to bite. Titans are competitive but there has been a pattern of errors through the back half of their recent games which will punish them here. Panthers at the line. BTW, have you noticed that for TV score cards the Titans get shortened to GCT and not TIT, lol!!!!
Sharks v Dragons
$1.90 H to H $1.90
+1.5 $1.90 Line $1.90 -1.5
Thought this was the most difficult game to line up of the round. Both 1 and 2, both lost their last 2. Sharks have lost 6 of last 7 at home, have won 3 of the last 4 v Dragons at home. Both have notable line up changes and reshuffles, Leuluai and possibly Gallen look positive for Sharks, B Morris, Isemonger and Wicks similar for the Dragons. Sharks came off a short back up last week (Mon to Sat plus travel), have the benefit of 9 day turnaround for this, a considerable plus, and Sticky would hate the though of losing 3 in a row early at his new assignment, a few pluses that tip to the Sharks but nothing would surprise me here.
The above prices were opening Sportsbet markets. Some will have changed, notable the Rabbitohs $2.25 H to H didn't last long.
Best
Rabbitohs $2.10 H to H
Broncos $1.90 Line -8.5
Storm $1.90 Line -8.5
Panthers $1.90 Line -9.5
Good Value
Raiders H to H $2.65 and $1.90 Line +6.5
Warriors H to H $2.50 and $1.90 Line +5.5
