Rumoured and Confirmed signings - Part 4

[OldPanther]

Here's my call.

The uncertainty around Nathan Cleary is unhealthy for our overall good going forward given we have so many critical players off contract in 2019.

If we retain Nathan Cleary it is going to cost us $1.3M minimum per season for four years and will also cost us at least three of the players off contract at the same time. Take your pick from Kikau, RCG, JFH, Egan, Katoa, Blake & Hethrington. They are the current top 30 contracted players but who knows how many other juniors may have to be sacrificed in the process.

It's just me, my personal opinion, but if you give me a choice I would rather keep all of the above & have faith in the likes of Luai, Blore and whoever else me emerge in the next year or two.

Nathan Cleary is not going to win us a premiership.

We have the nucleus of a really good team and I don't want to see that destroyed by undoing all the good work by putting all our eggs in the one basket with Nathan Cleary.

Nathan is the next great half. Will play for Aus, NSW and win at least 1 premiership.

 

[mxlegend99]

Nathan is the next great half. Will play for Aus, NSW and win at least 1 premiership.

That's going to be his achievement list before he turns 21.

 

[tripster]

Here's my call.

The uncertainty around Nathan Cleary is unhealthy for our overall good going forward given we have so many critical players off contract in 2019.

If we retain Nathan Cleary it is going to cost us $1.3M minimum per season for four years and will also cost us at least three of the players off contract at the same time. Take your pick from Kikau, RCG, JFH, Egan, Katoa, Blake & Hethrington. They are the current top 30 contracted players but who knows how many other juniors may have to be sacrificed in the process.

It's just me, my personal opinion, but if you give me a choice I would rather keep all of the above & have faith in the likes of Luai, Blore and whoever else me emerge in the next year or two.

Nathan Cleary is not going to win us a premiership.

We have the nucleus of a really good team and I don't want to see that destroyed by undoing all the good work by putting all our eggs in the one basket with Nathan Cleary.

The earlier model I put together asssumed Nathan is paid $1.1 million per season. If he was paid $1.3 that’s $200,000 more, but (admittedly based on estimates) even if we are paying him that I don’t think it costs us three players to keep him. I think it costs us one big name, or one big name and one lesser name.

Furthermore, the pinch point is the 2020 season when we still have Maloney, Merrin and Tamou on contract. 2021 therefore becomes completely different and we have a huge amount of cap space freed up. If Maloney retires at the end of 2020, that’s $800,000 freed up just by him.

One thing that Gus might therefore try - and we might be able to get Nathan to accept - is to take whatever we can sensibly afford to pay in 2020, with it increasing for 2021 onwards. That is in a sense a ‘back ended’ deal of the type Gus has publicly spoken out against, but it only needs to get us through 2020.

One way of structuring it could be to have, say, a 3 year deal worth an average of $1.3 million a season, but with $1 million payable in the first year and $1.45 million payable in the second and third seasons.

 

[unKwn]

Here's my call.

The uncertainty around Nathan Cleary is unhealthy for our overall good going forward given we have so many critical players off contract in 2019.

If we retain Nathan Cleary it is going to cost us $1.3M minimum per season for four years and will also cost us at least three of the players off contract at the same time. Take your pick from Kikau, RCG, JFH, Egan, Katoa, Blake & Hethrington. They are the current top 30 contracted players but who knows how many other juniors may have to be sacrificed in the process.

It's just me, my personal opinion, but if you give me a choice I would rather keep all of the above & have faith in the likes of Luai, Blore and whoever else me emerge in the next year or two.

Nathan Cleary is not going to win us a premiership.

We have the nucleus of a really good team and I don't want to see that destroyed by undoing all the good work by putting all our eggs in the one basket with Nathan Cleary.

i disagree. nathan cleary isn't your run of the mill half. to do what he is doing at that age is remarkable. we can't afford to just let him go without putting up a serious fight.

 

[mxlegend99]

i disagree. nathan cleary isn't your run of the mill half. to do what he is doing at that age is remarkable. we can't afford to just let him go without putting up a serious fight.

Our last developed representative half was Craig Gower. Even he was down the pecking order at the time.

To be fair it was in a generation of great halves. But these days those sorts of halves are rare. Which makes them far more valuable.

Cleary could be this generations Andrew Johns... and his competition won't even be close to the level of a Gower or Kimmorley. Its like Joey vs Finch.

Storm cheated to keep their spine together. Then when caught sacrificed everyone they had to in order to keep them together. Having the games best half goes a long way to being a regular threat. Cleary is looking at playing 3 from 3 finals series since debuting... and he's not even 21 yet. Hes about yo add Origin to his already impressive resume.

This kid is crucial to a winning culture at the club and I think players would take less money to play with the best half in the game. Talented 6s might take less to come play alongside him. Come play in our spine for less hoping to get a jump on others for an Origin spot. Centres etc. Wanting a combo with him.

 

[Kilkenny]

Nathan Cleary good player that he is can't do the business without the platform laid by our forward pack.

We resign Nathan Cleary then we have to accept the fact we run the risk of losing the likes of Viliame Kikau and other key players who at the end of the day are equally crucial to our overall success.

The point I make is do you break the bank to retain one player on say $1.4M per season or do you let that player go to retain key members of your forward pack in the likes of RCG, Kikau and others.

I hope Gus can pull a rabbit out of his hat and retain Nathan Cleary and everyone else we need to resign but I just can't see it.

As good at his job as Gus is, I just don't think he can pull this one off.

Nathan Cleary potentially is our best half back since Greg Alexander and Craig Gower but he cannot deliver us the success we crave without the forward pack, depth and quality outside backs required to win a premiership.

At the end of the day nothing is going to be resolved any time soon so let's just see where this season takes us and come November then Gus need's to make some really hard decisions for our future going forward.

 

[mxlegend99]

Nathan Cleary good player that he is can't do the business without the platform laid by our forward pack.

We resign Nathan Cleary then we have to accept the fact we run the risk of losing the likes of Viliame Kikau and other key players who at the end of the day are equally crucial to our overall success.

The point I make is do you break the bank to retain one player on say $1.4M per season or do you let that player go to retain key members of your forward pack in the likes of RCG, Kikau and others.

I hope Gus can pull a rabbit out of his hat and retain Nathan Cleary and everyone else we need to resign but I just can't see it.

As good at his job as Gus is, I just don't think he can pull this one off.

Nathan Cleary potentially is our best half back since Greg Alexander and Craig Gower but he cannot deliver us the success we crave without the forward pack, depth and quality outside backs required to win a premiership.

At the end of the day nothing is going to be resolved any time soon so let's just see where this season takes us and come November then Gus need's to make some really hard decisions for our future going forward.

Give Tamous money to RCG. Mez money to Kikau. Maloneys money to the next superstar.

The best halfback in the game is far more crucial to winning competitions then star forwards are. Especially over the span of a few seasons.

Theres zero chsnce we unearth another Cleary. I wouldnt rule out finding another RCG or Kikau though. I mean it wouldn't be easy. But there are a shitload of great forwards running around. Great halves are in extremely short supply.

 

[tripster]

Give Tamous money to RCG. Mez money to Kikau. Maloneys money to the next superstar.

The best halfback in the game is far more crucial to winning competitions then star forwards are. Especially over the span of a few seasons.

Theres zero chsnce we unearth another Cleary. I wouldnt rule out finding another RCG or Kikau though. I mean it wouldn't be easy. But there are a shitload of great forwards running around. Great halves are in extremely short supply.

It is also our model as a ‘development club’. All things being equal you expect we will keep pumping out quality forwards - they seem to be the easiest to develop. How often do we pump out an SOO quality half? Once every 10 years? Players like Nathan you keep and build a club around.

If we lose Cleary, then we are really gambling on someone else (or effectively two halves) stepping up once Maloney finishes his contract. We could go from having Maloney and Cleary in 2019, to only Maloney in 2020 (possibly say partnered with May) to then in 2021 having May with a debutant or very junior half who more likely than not is a shadow of Cleary. If that’s the case, it doesn’t matter how good our pack is - even if we have a dominant pack we will still struggle to turn field position into points.

 

[mxlegend99]

Also we lost Cartwright and Peachey and Crichton are gone in 2019. Crichton was only minimum wage but that's a free roster spot. While Carty and Peachey would be $800k or so combined. Browne has retired also. Wallace will more than likely retire.

That's a chunk of cap space right there. Cleary is going to get a huge payrise. But he's already on our cap aswell.

We should be in a better position than any club to offer him $1m+ and fill the rest of our roster with good players.

 

[umina panther]

Nathan Cleary good player that he is can't do the business without the platform laid by our forward pack.

We resign Nathan Cleary then we have to accept the fact we run the risk of losing the likes of Viliame Kikau and other key players who at the end of the day are equally crucial to our overall success.

The point I make is do you break the bank to retain one player on say $1.4M per season or do you let that player go to retain key members of your forward pack in the likes of RCG, Kikau and others.

I hope Gus can pull a rabbit out of his hat and retain Nathan Cleary and everyone else we need to resign but I just can't see it.

As good at his job as Gus is, I just don't think he can pull this one off.

Nathan Cleary potentially is our best half back since Greg Alexander and Craig Gower but he cannot deliver us the success we crave without the forward pack, depth and quality outside backs required to win a premiership.

At the end of the day nothing is going to be resolved any time soon so let's just see where this season takes us and come November then Gus need's to make some really hard decisions for our future going forward.

Big blokes who tackle and run hard are much easier to find

 

[Aliceinwonderland]

Standby:

Meltdown in St Merge rumour thread aisle 3,

Stalk with interest.

 

[TheFrog]

How often do we pump out an SOO quality half? Once every 10 years?

Players developed by us who played (or will play) at half in Origin debuted with us in 2016, 2005, 1996 and 1984. Four in 39 seasons since Origin started. Not counting Brad Izzard who was a centre/five-eighth who played Origin mainly at centre. Steve Carter also was a five-eighth who played one Origin match off the bench. So pretty close to the mark.

 

[Westernised Panther]

Standby:

Meltdown in St Merge rumour thread aisle 3,

Stalk with interest.

Just checked it out.

'Ouryears' looks like he has head screwed on right, even though he's a Dragons fan! But seriously, it's great to see a fan of the opposite team recognising the merits of our team.

Even more impressive was his understanding of the whole "5 year plan" situation. He hasn't been mislead by the Phil Rothfield version of the 5 year plan.

 

[mxlegend99]

Pretty funny that Dragons are equal first with us and they are acting like they have already fqiled. Equal first at the halfway point is equally as good or better than every team ffs. If they were sitting on the edge of yhe 8 fair enough. But first? Really?

I can understand the doubt based on previous years. But like us they signed a new half who so far looks like a great buy. I think they're top 8 certainties and this would take a new level of choke for them to miss out.


Im not sure their depth is an issue. 2 of their 3 losses came to teams who are now sitting on 9 wins. Hardly embarrassinglike us losing to Cowboysand Bulldogs. They might not be as invincible as they thought. But they're top 8 certainties at minimum and I dont think they have much to worry about in regards to sliding now the ladder.

I can't see either us or them dropping below 6th at worst. Which would suck from being in first. But the finals results are more important anyway. Finishing first means nothing if you get eliminated week 2. Regular season just serves to increase your odds at advancing by finishing higher and either getting a second chance or easier opposition.

Both of us right now have shown signs to be optimistic in finals. But yeah its a long way to go.

 

[betcats]

Give Tamous money to RCG. Mez money to Kikau. Maloneys money to the next superstar.

The best halfback in the game is far more crucial to winning competitions then star forwards are. Especially over the span of a few seasons.

Theres zero chsnce we unearth another Cleary. I wouldnt rule out finding another RCG or Kikau though. I mean it wouldn't be easy. But there are a shitload of great forwards running around. Great halves are in extremely short supply.

Check the halves pairings for the last ten grandfinals. You don’t need the best halfback in the game to win premierships. It took JT till his twilight years to win one as the best halfback in the game and that didn’t happen till he had a beast forward pack to play behind, how many did johns win? Having the highest paid player in the game does not equal lots of success.

To dominate over a number of years you need a good spine and a good forward pack. If keeping Cleary gets to a point where it’s costing us too much let him walk.

 

[franklin2323]

Spot on Betcats. $1m would of gotten us Pearce or Cronk. How much more do you play for a guy on his way up?

I think we go to keep him but have to have a maximum. There is no shortage of half options around even at the club.

 

[mxlegend99]

Check the halves pairings for the last ten grandfinals. You don’t need the best halfback in the game to win premierships. It took JT till his twilight years to win one as the best halfback in the game and that didn’t happen till he had a beast forward pack to play behind, how many did johns win? Having the highest paid player in the game does not equal lots of success.

To dominate over a number of years you need a good spine and a good forward pack. If keeping Cleary gets to a point where it’s costing us too much let him walk.

How many grand finals in the past decade didnt have a gun rep quality half in them? The worst i can think of would be 2014.

2017: Cronk and Munster, Morgan
2016: Cronk and Munster, Maloney
2015: Hunt, Morgan and Thurston
2014: Keary and Reynolds are the most average winners
2013: Maloney and Pearce, Foran and DCE
2012: Cronk and Widdop
2011: Dce, Foran and Maloney, Johnson
2010: Soward and Pearce, Carney
2009: Cronk
2008: Orford, Lyon, Cronk and Inglis

If we lose Cleary eho will we have once Maloney retires or ages to the point of being poor? It wont be a rep quality or premiership quality half.

We would be starting again from scratch.

 

[franklin2323]

Most of those halves listed weren't rep halves until after they won the comp.

We were winning games with Peachey at 6. Either of the halves in Flegg will be better halves then Peachey. Brooks will need to leave if Cleary goes there. He will do a decent enough job if we keep the rest of the side

 

[Aliceinwonderland]

Most of those halves listed weren't rep halves until after they won the comp.

We were winning games with Peachey at 6. Either of the halves in Flegg will be better halves then Peachey. Brooks will need to leave if Cleary goes there. He will do a decent enough job if we keep the rest of the side

I enjoying what is happening in 2018. Today is enough to worry about. Management will do all they can to keep Cleary. But if he chooses to leave to be with his dad. So mote it be.

 

[betcats]

How many grand finals in the past decade didnt have a gun rep quality half in them? The worst i can think of would be 2014.

2017: Cronk and Munster, Morgan
2016: Cronk and Munster, Maloney
2015: Hunt, Morgan and Thurston
2014: Keary and Reynolds are the most average winners
2013: Maloney and Pearce, Foran and DCE
2012: Cronk and Widdop
2011: Dce, Foran and Maloney, Johnson
2010: Soward and Pearce, Carney
2009: Cronk
2008: Orford, Lyon, Cronk and Inglis

If we lose Cleary eho will we have once Maloney retires or ages to the point of being poor? It wont be a rep quality or premiership quality half.

We would be starting again from scratch.

We need good halves no doubt, we have Maloney, if Cleary gets too expensive we have may, Luai, Blore to prepare, we will have katoa and/or egan settled into the 9 by then and our forward pack will have gone to another level based on age and experince. A forward pack like ours will make good halves into rep quality halves.

Either way the best half back over the last ten years(and some say ever to play the game) has played in ONE grand final since he become he full time starting 7. So having the best 7 is not vital, we need a spine and forward with rep players in them.