Rumoured and Confirmed signings - Part 4

[TheFrog]

I disagree with your assessment of salaries for Leota, Ellis & Hetherington - I think your amounts are too high. At this stage, these guys are in the 150-180 range.

The assessment, unless I was mistaken, was for 2020. These guys all come off contract before then and if they stay will be on new deals. The difficulty is guessing whether they'll be first grade regulars by the end of next year. Leota and Hetherington look likely, but its impossible to be sure. Ellis at this stage looks likely to go elsewhere.

 

[tripster]

The assessment, unless I was mistaken, was for 2020. These guys all come off contract before then and if they stay will be on new deals. The difficulty is guessing whether they'll be first grade regulars by the end of next year. Leota and Hetherington look likely, but its impossible to be sure. Ellis at this stage looks likely to go elsewhere.

Yes exactly, the analysis is trying to predict what the players will be on in 2020.

Some players are already contracted to 2020, so those are less of a concern. For those players, they will in all likelihood still be with us at the end of 2020. The main risk in the analysis I have performed for those players is that I have got their contracted salaries too low, which would mean that there would be even less room for the others who come off contract at the end of 2019.

Amongst that group, Gus signing someone like Yeo up until the end of 2021 looks like a masterstroke. It means that we have probably secured his services long term on far less than his market value.

The bigger issue is the guys coming off contract at the end of 2019. For those guys, if they really come of age next year (or even through the rest of this year) we will have problems. Kikau is one of them. What do we all think the market might be willing to pay for him at the start of 2020? I’d hazard a guess that, if he keeps up his current form, it is in the order of $650,000. I’d also assume that right now he is on far, far less. Possibly even something in the order of $200,000, given when his contract was signed.

 

[Pomoz]

The player market is just so inflated it must make managing our salary cap an almost impossible assignment.......

This is not about RCG I just make the point how dangerously inflated the player market is at present and is working against us as a club developing our own future NRL stars from within.......it is not necessarily of our own making other than the fact we keep producing too many quality youngsters.

Great post. I think your comment about the inflated market working against us, perhaps looks at the market from a single perspective. If you are not a developing club, then you must pay at the full rate to sign players, so the market is much more difficult for them. You may get a a player to accept less if you have a master coach like Bennet or Bellamy or somebody wants to live in the City like Roosters or Souths, or somebody who wants to play with a particular player like JT. Without that, you have to pay over the odds.

At least as a developing club you can have a few players at below market rates and when the average ones leave for more money you can replace them with one of your juniors. Latu is a good example. Exit Latu stage left, cue Hethrington stage right.

If we can keep producing quality youngsters, it is not a problem at all. The only difficult thing is choosing who to keep, but I would rather be doing that than going out and paying over the odds for players like Civoniceva again.

 

[GongPanther]

I have to laugh at the clowns on the Wests Tigers forum (not LU) getting shitty and paranoid about reports that the corrupt Roosters are looking to steal Nathan Cleary from under their noses. Some are suggesting that they pay Nathan under the table via Ivans account. It's an interesting read, the flip side of the coin, based on exactly the same mis-information we're all being fed. They're fully convinced that NC is a done deal. I guess we all believe what we want to eh?

http://www.weststigersforum.com/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=30235

They plaigerised that idea from me in here in regards to hypothetically Ivan paying Nathan.

 

[umina panther]

Great post. I think your comment about the inflated market working against us, perhaps looks at the market from a single perspective. If you are not a developing club, then you must pay at the full rate to sign players, so the market is much more difficult for them. You may get a a player to accept less if you have a master coach like Bennet or Bellamy or somebody wants to live in the City like Roosters or Souths, or somebody who wants to play with a particular player like JT. Without that, you have to pay over the odds.

At least as a developing club you can have a few players at below market rates and when the average ones leave for more money you can replace them with one of your juniors. Latu is a good example. Exit Latu stage left, cue Hethrington stage right.

If we can keep producing quality youngsters, it is not a problem at all. The only difficult thing is choosing who to keep, but I would rather be doing that than going out and paying over the odds for players like Civoniceva again.

The worst signing in our history. He was on rep halfback money

 

[GongPanther]

On the DWZ v Edwards convo. I think both guys have great running games. DWZ is more electric but has worse hands. He also needs to male himself an invaluable suppory player for Kik, Merrin etc. Edwards is safer and has more potential as a ball player but it hasnt clicked in first grade yet.

I think if it becomes a real decision much will depend on who we look like having in the 7 and 9.

Never forget the 2014 qualifying final V Dogs when DWZ lost the ball near our line. Canterbury scored as a result shortly after. Was always weary about his ball security before that incident,and to this day.

 

[GongPanther]

Statistics bear this out, unfortunately. Once your ACL has been done once there is a really high chance of doing it again - either in the same knee or in the opposite knee.

There is a lot of data studying the effects of ACL injuries in the NFL, where ACL injuries are also common. A lot of players never return to the NFL at all after doing their ACL and having a reconstruction, because their performance isn't good enough. Those that return - if they were exceptional - end up returning a few levels below - usually just becoming average players.

The qualification to that data however is that in the NFL there is usually pressure to return much quicker than in the NRL (and job security is worse) - and redoing your ACL is a higher risk if you return too quickly. It also isn't clear if players would return to their original level given enough time.

In the NRL I can think of a few players who did their ACL and still managed to stay at the top level - Tedesco is one. He did it very early in his career. Equally, who knows what he would have been like if it had never happened.

Looking at other players like Mansour and Inglis who have done their ACL's more recently - seems to take at least a full season in the top grade before they start to return to their best. You'd probably also put Whare in a similar bucket - we've seen glimpses of his old form recently, but who knows if it will be consistent.

You can then name a long list of other players who it dropped down a number of gears, seemingly permanently. JWH used to be one of the best props in the game - and was for a number of years. He has never returned to his best after doing his ACL. Matt Scott also hasn't been as good (although it is only his first season back after doing it).

Then you have players like McKendry and Moga who have barely been able to stay on the field after their original rupture.

Thomas Davis,the Carolia Panthers linebacker tore his ACL for the third time in three years. No NFL player,or professional athlete of any kind has ever recovered and returned to play in the NFL or in their sports league after three ACL tears.

 

[Abacus]

The assessment, unless I was mistaken, was for 2020. These guys all come off contract before then and if they stay will be on new deals. The difficulty is guessing whether they'll be first grade regulars by the end of next year. Leota and Hetherington look likely, but its impossible to be sure. Ellis at this stage looks likely to go elsewhere.

Yeah, I understand this and the players I've isolated are off contract either:

• 2018 (Luai & Ellis) - neither of these guys have played enough to warrant $150k & $200k respectively. The club would be talking to them in the next few weeks, if not already. No chance to get enough quality NRL time to bump up their values. I'd have these 2 in a $100k-$130k range.
• 2019 - the club would be talking these guys managers, particularly the priority keepers, with a view to a deal prior to 1 November 2018. Keeps other clubs and the players' 2019 on field performance out of the equation. Based on 2018, the game time of Hetherington and Leota should top out in the $150-$180k range. Kikau should be gettable for say $450k (particularly if he's coming off the bench in coming weeks).

The reasons for these guys to move on are limited ATM:

1. They're already at a club that looks like it's going to be a contender over the next few years.
2. Hell, a premiership might be close - why go to a club that's years away from that. These players are still young and can potentially win a comp and then cash in on their next contract.
3. Each of them (except Kikau) are only an injury or 2 from playing regular FG and more minutes.
4. Importantly, it appears to be a very happy environment.

There are a lot of factors in the club's favour to sign these guys at values lower than those put together by @tripster . Step 1 is to get Cleary signed. It will give all these guys another incentive to sign here and maybe forfeit a little cash elsewhere to do so.

 

[Big Mick]

No chance Kikau will only sign for 450k imo. Junior Paulo just signed for 650k. Kikau is a player who is young & is already producing. It will cost us at least 600k to keep him imo. Unless he has some Mansour level loyalty levels.

Leota will also be on more than 180k.

 

[TheFrog]

Junior Paulo just signed for 650k.

Did Parra really pay this much? Explains a lot if so.

 

[OldPanther]

No chance Kikau will only sign for 450k imo. Junior Paulo just signed for 650k. Kikau is a player who is young & is already producing. It will cost us at least 600k to keep him imo. Unless he has some Mansour level loyalty levels.

Leota will also be on more than 180k.

I do suspect we will be like the Broncos once were. Players staying for unders to be here. To what extent is anyone's guess.

 

[mxlegend99]

I do suspect we will be like the Broncos once were. Players staying for unders to be here. To what extent is anyone's guess.

Broncos didn't get players to stay for Unders. They just got creative in paying them.

In one season they lured Benji on minimum wage (knocking back $350k from Dragons), Sims on minimum wage (gaining early release from a $400k Knights contract), David Mead on half what the Titans were paying him and James Roberts for $200k when Dragons offered him $400k+.

No way these guys turn their backs on so much more money to play under Bennett. They had no loyalty to Broncos either.

At the end of the day players arent going to sacrifice hundreds of thousands of dollars unless they're on big money as it is and feel loyalty to the club.

 

[maple_69]

The only way I see Luai staying at this club is if Cleary goes. He’s not waiting for Maloney to retire to start his career and he’d be long odds of winning the bench utility spot when we’ll need two hookers for next year at least and May is floating around.

I’d happily take Kikau on 600x3. Still gives him time to make the monster payday he’s capable of if he doesn’t get lazy and if we continue to manage him well, we get probably the second most destructive forward in the game for less than the cost of a Junior Paulo.

 

[age.s]

Who's going to start Luai? He'd possibly be better than the first choice options at a few clubs (Brisbane and the Dogs come to mind) but not to the point of demanding selection. He'd be waiting on an injury in most places, why not do it here?

 

[tripster]

Thomas Davis,the Carolia Panthers linebacker tore his ACL for the third time in three years. No NFL player,or professional athlete of any kind has ever recovered and returned to play in the NFL or in their sports league after three ACL tears.

Moga is the only one I am aware of. He had done his ACL three times before returning to 1st grade with the Broncos and then going to the Knights, and unfortunately doing it for the 4th time this season.

 

[tripster]

Broncos fidnt get players to stay fot Unders. They just got creative in paying them.

I think what has really helped the Broncos in the past (and continues to help them today) is the TPAs that playing for the Broncos can allow a player to earn.

 

[mxlegend99]

I think what has really helped the Broncos in the past (and continues to help them today) is the TPAs that playing for the Broncos can allow a player to earn.

And that money can be unaccounted for and the person responsible just needs to stepdown and refuse to answer questions.

 

[OldPanther]

Broncos fidnt get players to stay fot Unders. They just got creative in paying them.

In one season they lured Benji on minimum wage (knocking back $350k from Dragons), Sims on minimum wage (gaining early release from a $400k Knights contract), David Mead on half what thd Titans were paying him and James Roberts for $200k when Dragons offered him $400k+.

No way these guys turn their backs on so much more money to play under Bennett. They had no loyalty to Broncos either.

At thr dnf of the day plsyers arent hoing to sacrifice hundreds of thousands of dollars unless they're on big money as it is and feel loyalty to the club.

Well we could do that as well if players wouldn't tell the media all about like Maloney did lol.

 

[CCJohnC]

From today's Sunday Telegraph Quote " Which NRL star is having second thoughts about joining a clib in 2019 with which he has signed" Any suggestions?

 

[tripster]

From today's Sunday Telegraph Quote " Which NRL star is having second thoughts about joining a clib in 2019 with which he has signed" Any suggestions?

It is probably the rumour that was going around a few weeks ago about Peach wanting to get out of his Titans deal.

However, as much as we would love to keep him - it looks impossible from a salary cap perspective - even assuming there is any truth to the rumour that he wants out.