I wonder though, with Loko being brought up, are we looking to sign just one quality centre and one quality winger? Or two centres/two wingers?
I'd expect at least three players to definitely be in the back-line next year; Hayne, Burt and Sandow. That leaves two open centre positions, a wing spot and a five-eighth spot.
Getting just one of Champion/Hopoate/Lafai in the centres would do me. Folau is the pipe-dream
Seeing as we are looking at Hopoate as a centre (from reports), I'd expect the real contentious area we don't know about in regards to recruitment options is the other wing spot.
I think the idea is to sign players with a view to being able to tell them where they'll be playing - you can't just sign a bunch of guys and tell them they'll be fighting for a spot, because most of them won't come.
So at this stage I'd say these are the incumbents for next year:
1. Hayne
2. Burt
6. Mortimer
7. Sandow
We can say what we like about Burt and Mortimer - that there are better options available and that we could replace them as early as next year - but the fact is they're contracted next year, they'll be counted under the salary cap next year, therefore we may as well play them next year and not waste cap money making them redundant.
I'm certain Burt won't be retained after his contract expires, and if he doesn't improve, neither will Mortimer. But next year they're both still here so I'd say they'll both start unless somebody already at the club forces them out of their spot. But we won't be recruiting to replace them. Not with a salary cap to think about.
So that leaves a winger and 2 centres.
Kearney might be assuming that one of Loko or Morgan will tie a centre spot up by the end of the year - Morgan is safer but Loko could be anything. Anyway, both will probably still be here next year, either to keep fighting for a spot or just to provide depth.
We've also still got Walker, Atkins and Uaisele next year, and we've signed Vaivai. Then you've got guys like Filiga and Sio - who knows what will happen with them. If they're still contracted for next year they'll at least play for Wenty.
Off-contract are Reddy, Hicks and Whatuira. We know Phats is gone. Even if he stays for the rest of the year he won't be retained. Hicks would have to be in the same boat. I'd say if we don't get Hopoate we'll probably keep Reddy. If we get Hopoate we mightn't be able to pay Reddy as much as he wants and he'll (probably) leave. I'd be very surprised if we chased Champion, and if we did get him I'm sure Reddy wouldn't be retained.
At this stage these are the outside backs contracted for next year (alphabetically and not including fullbacks):
Atkins
Burt
Loko
Morgan
Uaisele
Vaivai
Walker
That's seven blokes. For a top 25 you wouldn't want to carry much more than seven outside backs. One or more of them could also cover for Hayne at fullback. I'd say we're looking at signing one more outside back, tops.
I reckon it all depends on Hopoate. If he signs with us then Reddy's gone. If he doesn't then we'll probably offer Reddy what he wants. Of course Reddy and his manager won't be happy with having to wait for Hopoate to decide, which is why they're making noise in the media. Fair play to them. In the off chance we miss Hopoate
and Reddy signs elsewhere then we probbaly will chase Champion, unless he's already signed somewhere else.
But if we sign Reddy or Champion then we should forget about Hopoate because we'll have too much salary cap tied up in outside backs. I'm certain we're only looking for one more for next year's squad.
In that case the backs look like this for next year:
1. Hayne
2. Burt
3. Hopoate/Reddy/Champion
4. Loko/Morgan/Walker/Vaivai
5. Whoever's left over
There's also the chance we'll miss out on all three of Hopoate, Reddy or Champion. That's the risk you take I guess.
In that case Loko, Morgan, Walker and Vaivai will probably fight for two centre spots and we'll find somebody else to fill the squad out - somebody like Joe Tomane, Esi Tonga or Bronx Goodwin. Tomane and Tonga would also be options at centre.
Of the other outside backs off contract, there's Justin Hodges, who is probably the second-best centre in the game. I'd be surprised if he wanted less than $400k which puts him out of our price range - with three players on $350k+ we don't need another one.
There's also Jharal Yow Yeh. He's an international now, and soon will be an Origin player. He's probably asking more than we'd be willing to pay though. He's as good a winger as Hopoate but without the versatility - we're chasing Hopoate as a centre or even as a fullback if Hayne tries to bankrupt us when his contract's up.
Other off-contract outside backs who would be certain starters are Junior Sa'u and the Williams brothers (David and Tony) from Manly. Bear in mind, Manly are probably waiting for Hopoate's decision as well, before re-signing their other outside backs. It's a bit of a merry-go-round.
These three would want first-grade money and only Junior Sa'u is a first grade quality centre, which is what we need. He'd only really be an option if we missed on on Hopoate
and Reddy. Sa'u and Champion are probably plan C. Or they could be plan B with the re-signing of Reddy being plan C. If that's the case it's no wonder Reddy is unhappy.
One thing for sure is that Hopoate is plan A and everything else hinges on him. I wonder what kind of deadline the club has allowed, and if Hopoate's management has been made aware of it.
Either way, we're almost certainly allowing for one centre spot to be filled by one of the guys already contracted here next year - there's too many in the squad for them to all be back-ups.
That leaves the other centre spot open to somebody on $200k or more - Hopoate, Reddy or someone else.
I don't think we're really looking for wingers; we have enough guys in the squad who can fight for one of the spots, and Burt is certainly keeping his position until his contract's up. That, along with his injury issues, rules David Williams out.
Tony Williams is probably a wing option but only because he can also play in the wide back-row spot.
