Rumoured/Confirmed Signings and More Crap XVI

[born an eel]

We're not going to let go of good ones and replace them with nuffies.

Once your top 17 is full of talent, blokes will have to leave just to get an opportunity.

And if the 'academy' is any good we will have to let go of plenty of promising youngsters.

Don't assume all the quality young blokes at the club will still be here in two or three years. The important thing is to keep churning out new ones. They're not guaranteed first graders for the next decade, they're just more options.

funny how the "academy" sounds like the way things have been done for years,
#themorethingschangethemoretheystaythesame

 

[Poupou Escobar]

There kinda like racehorses at the yearling sales. You buy a dozen and hope that one starts at Randwick one day. Agree ?

Qualitatively yes. Quantitatively I'm sure you'll agree not all trainers have the same level of success.

A trainer might get one top racehorse from a dozen and another might get two or three. Or more. There is also the issue of how accurately and how soon he can recognise the potential of these young horses, and sign them up before other trainers can start throwing big contracts at them.

On a case by case basis any one horse could end up anything under any given trainer. The difference between any two trainers is only shown aggregated across entire squads over multiple seasons.

So a shithouse trainer might uncover a future star and a good trainer might let a good horse slip away (or just get outbid by a rival club - you can lead a horse to water but you can't force it to re-sign for unders). But in the long run the good trainer will have better junior squads and produce more first graders and rep players. He can't help it if one of his gun yearlings turns out to be a thieving little merkin who steals from his mates.

 

[Gronk]

Qualitatively yes. Quantitatively I'm sure you'll agree not all trainers have the same level of success.

A trainer might get one top racehorse from a dozen and another might get two or three. Or more. There is also the issue of how accurately and how soon he can recognise the potential of these young horses, and sign them up before other trainers can start throwing big contracts at them.

On a case by case basis any one horse could end up anything under any given trainer. The difference between any two trainers is only shown aggregated across entire squads over multiple seasons.

So a shithouse trainer might uncover a future star and a good trainer might let a good horse slip away (or just get outbid by a rival club - you can lead a horse to water but you can't force it to re-sign for unders). But in the long run the good trainer will have better junior squads and produce more first graders and rep players. He can't help it if one of his gun yearlings turns out to be a thieving little merkin who steals from his mates.

It's a known fact that success in horse racing is mostly governed by bloodlines. Very rarely to you get a high yield winner from a nuffy sire and dame (or nuffy grandparents).

Footy players are different. Nuffy parents can produce winners without any talent in the family. Many good judges say that talent spotting starts with a kid with a big arse and an angry face.

Discuss.

 

[Maroubra Eel]

Nonsense post Poupou.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

funny how the "academy" sounds like the way things have been done for years

Yeah just the same only better.

#themorethingschangethemoretheystaythesame

We can't help producing potential first graders and losing some to rival clubs (Jacob Gagan is making his NRL debut this week).

But hopefully from now on we'll keep the best ones for ourselves. We signed Semi Radradra in 2011 and now he's contracted until the end of 2018.

Even the saddest death rider should be happy with that.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

It's a known fact that success in horse racing is mostly governed by bloodlines. Very rarely to you get a high yield winner from a nuffy sire and dame (or nuffy grandparents).

Footy players are different. Nuffy parents can produce winners without any talent in the family. Many good judges say that talent spotting starts with a kid with a big arse and an angry face.

Discuss.

Well mate I agree your yearling sales analogy was stupid. I was just trying to be polite.

 

[eels_fan]

Where does Folau (John) fit into the picture? First grade potential? Signed beyond this year?

 

[Gronk]

Well mate I agree your yearling sales analogy was stupid. I was just trying to be polite.

Then make me a sandwich.

 

[born an eel]

Qualitatively yes. Quantitatively I'm sure you'll agree not all trainers have the same level of success.

A trainer might get one top racehorse from a dozen and another might get two or three. Or more. There is also the issue of how accurately and how soon he can recognise the potential of these young horses, and sign them up before other trainers can start throwing big contracts at them.

On a case by case basis any one horse could end up anything under any given trainer. The difference between any two trainers is only shown aggregated across entire squads over multiple seasons.

So a shithouse trainer might uncover a future star and a good trainer might let a good horse slip away (or just get outbid by a rival club - you can lead a horse to water but you can't force it to re-sign for unders). But in the long run the good trainer will have better junior squads and produce more first graders and rep players. He can't help it if one of his gun yearlings turns out to be a thieving little merkin who steals from his mates.

problem is the facilities only have a set number of stables, once they are full it doesn't matter how good the next good thing is.

Unless you can give away one of your current stars, they are going elsewhere

 

[Joely01]

Where does Folau (John) fit into the picture? First grade potential? Signed beyond this year?

At the start of the year was the one tipped to be first replacement, has become the forgotten man.
I would have had him ahead of Morgan on the weekend...

 

[Poupou Escobar]

Where does Folau (John) fit into the picture? First grade potential? Signed beyond this year?

He's big and fast so there's always first grade potential, but he is by no means a sure thing.

As far as the internet is concerned he is not contracted beyond this year and if he hasn't re-signed then he will be in negotiations with multiple clubs. Since he's been in our system for a couple of years we should have the best idea of what he's worth. If we lose him the gaining club will probably be paying overs.

However if his value is inflated due to being a drawcard for the future signing of Israel Folau, then paying overs for John might not be such a bad idea for a club that needs a marquee outside back.

That sure isn't us though.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

Then make me a sandwich.

I wasn't trying that hard.

 

[born an eel]

not every signing/loss is down to money.

players change clubs for opportunities or family/personal reasons

 

[Poupou Escobar]

problem is the facilities only have a set number of stables, once they are full it doesn't matter how good the next good thing is.

Unless you can give away one of your current stars, they are going elsewhere

Exactly. As long as the first grade squad is doing well you can keep letting go of youngsters. Manly have lost Hodkinson, JWH, Tony Williams, Lussick and Hopoate in recent years and they're still doing ok. They had a great 'academy' for the better part of a decade.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

Or y'know, maybe they just keep buying lucky batches of yearlings?

 

[born an eel]

Or y'know, maybe they just keep buying lucky batches of yearlings?

or they just buy the best barrier trialler from another stable.

let somebody else get them ready for the track from a yearling stage.

 

[Gronk]

Hindy & Fletch will be providing live comical (?) anecdotes to the Roosters v Knights game next week on FoxSports (press red)

 

[Poupou Escobar]

How many proven first graders have Manly bought in the past decade? In their current squad it's only Lyon. Plus a few fringe first graders signed from other clubs (e.g. Horo).

Most of their current stars came through their own junior system ('academy'). Even Parra juniors like Taufua, Williams and Buhrer played in Manly's junior teams.

 

[born an eel]

How many proven first graders have Manly bought in the past decade? In their current squad it's only Lyon. Plus a few fringe first graders signed from other clubs (e.g. Horo).

Most of their current stars came through their own junior system ('academy'). Even Parra juniors like Taufua, Williams and Buhrer played in Manly's junior teams.

who's talking about proven first graders?

do you even know what a barrier trial is?

Tony Williams had already trialled and was nominated for his "first" race when Manly bought him. Hell he was practically saddled and walking around the enclosure when manly changed his "silks". They payed him for his group 1 potential when he hadn't even won a maiden yet.

 

[Joshuatheeel]

I wouldn't even consider releasing Morgan until we know if hoppa is going to stay past next year. I would hate to have to chase a centre for 2016 if hoppa leaves and we have released Morgan.