Rumoured/Confirmed Signings and More Crap XX

[Joshuatheeel]

RTS is better than Hayne same age IMHO.

[youtube]r10_6vHrGEs[/youtube]

I bet Hayne wished he play with origin halves at 21.

 

[Chipmunk]

If we play 12 games at Pirtek, and lose 70% of the matches not at Pirtek, we are going to struggle to make the 8.

Our winning % at Pirtek over the last 5 years is just 48%. We could play every single game at the ground and still not make the 8 based on those statistics.

Yes, we have won 9 of our last 11 there, but it doesn't mean we will win 9 of our next 11 there. Yes, home ground advantage is real, yes, we have it at ANZ as compared to anyone else who plays there (based on average home crowd size).

My point: getting angry at some mythical hoodoo is not the answer. Abandoning the ground where finals footy is played because 'we can't win there' is not the answer. Who cares about winning 48% of our games anywhere? Give me 70% everywhere please.

We've lost 17 of our last 18 games at ANZ, including only 4 of our last 5 since the start of last year. Statistics show that we're currently getting no home ground advanatage by playing there.

We've won 11 of our past 13 matches at Pirtek, which equates to 7-8 wins out of 9 at Pirtek. Which means if statistics remain the same, we will have to win 5-6 matches from 13 away from Pirtek this season to make the Top 8. The more wins at Pirtek, means the less wins we have to find somewhere else. Even if we won all 9 games at Pirtek this season (I actually think this is achievable), we still need to find a minimum of 3-4 wins somewhere else.

I don't see a team that has averaged 27.7% in Wins Away from Pirtek since the start of last season, who currently has 0% of wins in matches Away from Pirtek this season, suddenly being able to win up to 5-6 of 12 games (at minimum the best part of 50%) Away from Pirtek unless something dramatically changes.

I also don't see anyone else making final series regularly who take 3 matches away from their major home ground. No matter how good a team they are. The only other team that has done this in the past is the Tigers, who have made the Top 8 only 3 times in the past 15 years.

The NRL is too close a competition to be giving away games at the place you win the most at. If we played 11 games at Pirtek we would stand a much better chance of consistently making the Top 8. Right now, playing only 9 games there, statistically we have little to no chance of making the Top 8.

 

[oldmancraigy]

So Chipmunk, the fact we made the finals in 2009, AND played games at ANZ - what is that?

I mean, if the point you are making is correct, you are extrapolating the wrong answer from it. That's all I am trying to point out. If we need to play at the same ground all the time and designate THAT ground as our 'home ground', then that should be ANZ. Throw Pirtek away. We've only won 48% at Pirtek over the last 5 years, it is no fortress Brookie....

Look at Souths. They made the call to play all games at ANZ back in 2008. The last 3 years they have gone 27-13 there.
Considering we draw higher crowds to the venue than they do, we would expect an even greater 'home ground' advantage, plus we'd be stealing 2-4 extra home games per year. Take a couple of bad years if required, but then we become a juggernaught.

Playing 12 games a year at a venue you have a 48% record at over the last 5 years doesn't sound like a strategy for success?

Perhaps your logic is falling apart?

 

[Gronk]

FOX SPORTS News ‏@FOXSportsNews 6m6 minutes ago
UPDATED #NRL CONCUSSION POLICY: If a player shows clear signs of concussion e.g. stumbling, he'll be taken off and not allowed to return

Are we the only sport to make rule changes almost every f**king week ?

 

[Chipmunk]

So Chipmunk, the fact we made the finals in 2009, AND played games at ANZ - what is that?

I mean, if the point you are making is correct, you are extrapolating the wrong answer from it. That's all I am trying to point out. If we need to play at the same ground all the time and designate THAT ground as our 'home ground', then that should be ANZ. Throw Pirtek away. We've only won 48% at Pirtek over the last 5 years, it is no fortress Brookie....

Look at Souths. They made the call to play all games at ANZ back in 2008. The last 3 years they have gone 27-13 there.
Considering we draw higher crowds to the venue than they do, we would expect an even greater 'home ground' advantage, plus we'd be stealing 2-4 extra home games per year. Take a couple of bad years if required, but then we become a juggernaught.

Playing 12 games a year at a venue you have a 48% record at over the last 5 years doesn't sound like a strategy for success?

Perhaps your logic is falling apart?

You're now using skewed statistics to justify a poor argument.

I think you and I and everyone on this forum will agree that Parra were an exceptionally poor team for 3 years from 2011 to 2013. We could've played 24 games a season at Pirtek during 2011 to 2013, I doubt we would have won enough to make a Top 8! For that reason those statistics from those years shouldn't be used as the base of an entire argument and I have just used mostly statistics since the start of last season, when we finally put a competitive team on the park. We've won 9 of our last 11 at Pirtek and 5 of our last 18 Away from Pirtek. This is a big enough sample size to demonstrate consistency and the team is of similar calibre for this entire time period.

If we played 11 games per year at Pirtek, I'd be confident of getting at least 9 wins and this is backed up by the statistics outlined previously. Using the same statistics for matches away from Pirtek, we would win 3.5 games away from the other 13 matches away from Pirtek. 12.5 wins (12 wins and a draw) or 13 wins gets you in the Top 8.

If we abandoned Pirtek and played 11 Home Games at ANZ, do you think we would currently win more games?

On 2009 and prior to this, if I'm not mistaken we played 10 games per year at Pirtek?

 

[Barry O'Speedwagon]

So Chipmunk, the fact we made the finals in 2009, AND played games at ANZ - what is that?

I mean, if the point you are making is correct, you are extrapolating the wrong answer from it. That's all I am trying to point out. If we need to play at the same ground all the time and designate THAT ground as our 'home ground', then that should be ANZ. Throw Pirtek away. We've only won 48% at Pirtek over the last 5 years, it is no fortress Brookie....

Wasn't called Pirtek 5 years ago. Our record since it has been called Pirtek is vastly superior to the previous 3 years.

More seriously, the thing with playing home games at ANZ is a little different to playing home games in Darwin etc. In some cases, we are playing our home games at the home venue of the opposition. I get why we do it, but that is an added kicker. There's no excuse whatsoever for our dismal record at the ground, but I guess it is worth bearing in mind that the teams we play there are not a random sample of the competition, and they've typically been teams performing pretty well.

 

[oldmancraigy]

Wasn't called Pirtek 5 years ago. Our record since it has been called Pirtek is vastly superior to the previous 3 years.

More seriously, the thing with playing home games at ANZ is a little different to playing home games in Darwin etc. In some cases, we are playing our home games at the home venue of the opposition. I get why we do it, but that is an added kicker. There's no excuse whatsoever for our dismal record at the ground, but I guess it is worth bearing in mind that the teams we play there are not a random sample of the competition, and they've typically been teams performing pretty well.

I think I'm on yer wavelength - just making arguments using faulty logic to combat Chippy's! The teams we play there are also the teams who are some kind of rival (hence the crowd expectation that far exceeds Parra stadium).

 

[Chipmunk]

FOX SPORTS News‏@FOXSportsNews6m6 minutes ago
UPDATED #NRL CONCUSSION POLICY: If a player shows clear signs of concussion e.g. stumbling, he'll be taken off and not allowed to return

Are we the only sport to make rule changes almost every f**king week ?

Apparently Parra has also been fined $20k, Souths $0 for puting players back on the field after a concussion.

 

[oldmancraigy]

You're now using skewed statistics to justify a poor argument.

I think you and I and everyone on this forum will agree that Parra were an exceptionally poor team for 3 years from 2011 to 2013. We could've played 24 games a season at Pirtek during 2011 to 2013, I doubt we would have won enough to make a Top 8! For that reason those statistics from those years shouldn't be used as the base of an entire argument and I have just used mostly statistics since the start of last season, when we finally put a competitive team on the park. We've won 9 of our last 11 at Pirtek and 5 of our last 18 Away from Pirtek. This is a big enough sample size to demonstrate consistency and the team is of similar calibre for this entire time period.

If we played 11 games per year at Pirtek, I'd be confident of getting at least 9 wins and this is backed up by the statistics outlined previously. Using the same statistics for matches away from Pirtek, we would win 3.5 games away from the other 13 matches away from Pirtek. 12.5 wins (12 wins and a draw) or 13 wins gets you in the Top 8.

If we abandoned Pirtek and played 11 Home Games at ANZ, do you think we would currently win more games?

On 2009 and prior to this, if I'm not mistaken we played 10 games per year at Pirtek?

I'm just using your pissweak logic...

Can't you see that your argument is the following:
* Based on the previous years output, we should expect exactly the same in the current year
* Based on expectations for the current year, all future decisions should be arranged

It's a terrible way to do business!
A more 'normal' methodology is to sample the last 5 years to see if there is a trendline. How DARE you bring the ability of the team into the argument? That is introducing additional factors beyond the ones you are using to form your poor logic.... :lol:

You could equally (poorly) argue that we have won our last 2 games at Pirtek, and all our games at TIO, therefore we should win every single game at those venues, and we therefore only need to snag 2 wins out of the other 14 games to play finals footy.
It's a stupid argument!!
That's what I'm pointing out. It puts the crap in More Crap XX!


As far as ANZ goes, we simply need to learn to win there. And whenever we can fit an additional 20-30k fans in to see a match, I'm all for it. We've only been struggling at the venue for results since 2011 (which coincides with having a crap roster, crap coach, and crap culture introduced).

 

[Gronk]

Apparently Parra has also been fined $20k, Souths $0 for puting players back on the field after a concussion.

I reckon that Ref vs Tigers has concussion too. :alcho:

 

[Chipmunk]

I'm just using your pissweak logic...

Can't you see that your argument is the following:
* Based on the previous years output, we should expect exactly the same in the current year
* Based on expectations for the current year, all future decisions should be arranged

It's a terrible way to do business!
A more 'normal' methodology is to sample the last 5 years to see if there is a trendline. How DARE you bring the ability of the team into the argument? That is introducing additional factors beyond the ones you are using to form your poor logic.... :lol:

You could equally (poorly) argue that we have won our last 2 games at Pirtek, and all our games at TIO, therefore we should win every single game at those venues, and we therefore only need to snag 2 wins out of the other 14 games to play finals footy.
It's a stupid argument!!
That's what I'm pointing out. It puts the crap in More Crap XX!


As far as ANZ goes, we simply need to learn to win there. And whenever we can fit an additional 20-30k fans in to see a match, I'm all for it. We've only been struggling at the venue for results since 2011 (which coincides with having a crap roster, crap coach, and crap culture introduced).

I don't really care were we play as long as we win. But the statistics still show that Parra won't be play Finals Football whilst we play 15 games a year away from Pirtek. If you're happy for the additional 20-30k fans to see a couple more games a years though well so be it... But I'd rather have a better chance to make the Finals thanks.

 

[Barry O'Speedwagon]

Apparently Parra has also been fined $20k, Souths $0 for puting players back on the field after a concussion.

We got fined, because we failed to follow the procedure set down (and we admit to that breach). Half the fine is suspended.

http://www.smh.com.au/rugby-league/parramatta-eels/parramatta-eels-fined-20000-over-concussion-breaches-by-nrl-20150408-1mgr6m.html

 

[oldmancraigy]

I don't really care were we play as long as we win. But the statistics still show that Parra won't be play Finals Football whilst we play 15 games a year away from Pirtek. If you're happy for the additional 20-30k fans to see a couple more games a years though well so be it... But I'd rather have a better chance to make the Finals thanks.

We played more than 15 games away from Pirtek in 2009. One of them was the grand final. Do you honestly believe Pirtek stadium has a magic fairy who makes us win???

 

[Obscene Assassin]

RTS is better than Hayne same age IMHO.

[youtube]r10_6vHrGEs[/youtube]

Hayne won the Dally M at 21, was a SOO superstar and set the world alight at the WC in 08 as well as his Rookie year in '06 where he won the ROTY. RTS is alright compared to Hayne at the same age.

 

[Chipmunk]

We played more than 15 games away from Pirtek in 2009. One of them was the grand final. Do you honestly believe Pirtek stadium has a magic fairy who makes us win???

We didn't play 15 games Away from Pirtek during the 2009 regular season and in fact we played just 10 games at Pirtek during the regular season. If we played 9 game at Pirtek in 2009, like we will do this season, statistics say that would probably would not have even made the Top 8 that year. We won 7 of 10 at Pirtek that year and 5 from 14 away from Pirtek with 1 draw at an ANZ Home Game.

Since the inception of the NRL in 1998, Parra played no less than 11 matches per season at Parramatta Stadium until 2008. During that time we took no more than one home game away from Parramatta Stadium each season and in fact took very few matches away from Parramatta Stadium except for 1998 to Parkes, 2005 and 2006 to Waikato. All our first round ANZ season opener games were actually our opponents Home Game. In this time we made the finals 8 out of 11 seasons.

From 2009 to 2012 we took 2 games per season away from Pirtek, since 2013 we've taken 3 games per season away from Pirtek. We've made the finals once in 6 seasons.

The Finals in itself is a different story. There has been 17 years of the NRL and only 3 Grand Finals winners out of those 17 have played some of their home games at ANZ and only only one team in the last 10 years. Manly, Storm, Roosters, Broncos, St George, Penrith and Newcastle have all won grand finals at ANZ without playing any of their home games at ANZ during the year. Why should we bother if it has little or no bearing on who the team is who wins the grand final each year?

The NRL has become an exceptionally close competition and taking games away from a ground where you play your best is simply sacrificing wins and finals appearances. The club is making an error taking 3 games per season away from Pirtek.

The only other team who now chooses to play more than 2 games away from their spiritual home is the Wests Tigers, who have made 3 finals appearances in 15 years.

 

[Gronk]

Manly missed out on the Burgess doppelganger.

LOL@manly.

 

[Kornstar]

Paul Kent is without a doubt the luckiest dumb merkin to be on TV!

 

[Avenger]

Paul Kent is without a doubt the luckiest dumb merkin to be on TV!

In a neck and neck race with Mark Geyer as the luckiest dumb merkin on radio. Just aks him.

 

[The Elephant In The room]

Statistics showed that last year we were a better team at Pirtek than not at Pirtek.

If we played more games at Pirtek last season, statistics show that we would have more than likely than not have won more games last season.

If we had won just won more game last season we would have made the Top 8.

We beat the Dogs in an Away game at ANZ during Origin. Origin period is a bit of a lottery and we came up with the goods on that occassion. It's possible we will also win some games Away during the Origin period this year also. Possible, but not Probabable.

Statistics show that if we had played the Tigers and Dogs at Pirtek last season that we would have more likely than not have won those games.

Statistics for this season is that we are 100% at Pirtek and 0% not at Pirtek. Although after 5 matches this is a small sample size.

Unless we can at least win all 9 games this year at Pirtek, we are statistically probably not going to make the Top 8 (which I don't think we will anyway). Every loss at Pirtek means that we are more likely than not of missing the Top 8.

A bit of a flawed arguement considering 9/11 teams we have played at ANZ during the last 3 years were finalists, and 4/11 (36%) of them were grand finalists.

So we traditionally play strong teams at ANZ and we are more likely to play weaker teams at Pirtek.

Looking only at last year 2/3rds of the teams we played at ANZ were grandfinalists, whilst we only played 1 game against GFists at Pirtek last year (11% of games), and 44% of games at Pirtek were against teams who missed the finals. I would hope our Pirtek record is better than our ANZ record given the teams played at either venue.

 

[T.S Quint]

Yeah, Souths and Canterbury haven't been bad sides for quite a few years now.
And we have been abhorrently bad. It's understandable that we haven't won many games against them recently.

The Tigers on the other hand are a different story. While they haven't been as bad as us, they haven't been world-beaters either. We should have been able to beat them on more occasions than we have.