Rumoured Targets 3

[alexwilliams_66692007]

Kiwis hardman Thompson eyes reunion with brother, weighs NRL options

Both Thompson twins are currently contracted with Newcastle Knights — but for how long?

www.1news.co.nz

Not sure how legit this 1news is but this article states he's still keen to play with his brother again so, I guess we're still a hope?

Apparently Tyrone starts pre season training this week as well.

 

[perverse]

Almost half the comp is going to have a crack at signing Leo, and it's not because he's ordinary.
It's because he is likely the next JFH / Moses Leota (two guys who don't blow up the stats sheet but contribute hugely to the Panthers being so good).

I will admit Leo did have some stinkers to end the year but if the alternative is letting him walk and replacing him with Josh King the club may as well fold.

Yeah, I dunno. Maybe. I don't think you win a comp throwing 800k at a bloke like Leo either. So where's the line?

Personally, I think if we have to pay a penny over $650k then he can walk - and I'm giving him a bonus 50k there from what I actually think too. As HVG said above, we have the luxury of being able to upgrade him in 2025 to sweeten the deal if there's some cap there to do it. If we can't get it done around that price then I see us walking down the exact same path we have before.

It's the "because he's likely" that we need to stop paying for. Pay for what he is now. We get burned almost every time on what "might" be. I feel like I'm forever looking at our disappointments that were signed on values for what they "will" provide to us, rather than what they actually do provide us.

The truth of the matter is we need a juniors/recruitment pipeline (locals or otherwise, i'm not making the "locals" argument) that's strong enough that we can afford to make a hardline offer, because we're not desperate enough to overpay to begin with. Doesn't help us today, but it's what we actually need. At the end of the day, we're often the desperate party at the table when getting a deal done, and it needs to change. We need to find confidence in ourselves to replace what we lose. It's how the Panthers got to where they are, they weren't afraid to lose players (and even ejected some willingly, much to the surprise of many at the time) - because their junior pipeline just keeps pumping out replacements, or even upgrades for the ones that leave.

 

[PhilGould]

Kiwis hardman Thompson eyes reunion with brother, weighs NRL options

Both Thompson twins are currently contracted with Newcastle Knights — but for how long?

www.1news.co.nz

Not sure how legit this 1news is but this article states he's still keen to play with his brother again so, I guess we're still a hope?

Apparently Tyrone starts pre season training this week as well.

Tyrone is only signed for a year so could just as easily end up following Leo elsewhere

 

[Dr Dr Gimedanews]

Yeah, I dunno. Maybe. I don't think you win a comp throwing 800k at a bloke like Leo either. So where's the line?

Personally, I think if we have to pay a penny over $650k then he can walk - and I'm giving him a bonus 50k there from what I actually think too. As HVG said above, we have the luxury of being able to upgrade him in 2025 to sweeten the deal if there's some cap there to do it. If we can't get it done around that price then I see us walking down the exact same path we have before.

It's the "because he's likely" that we need to stop paying for. Pay for what he is now.

The truth of the matter is we need a juniors/recruitment pipeline

Yes and Yes

Keeping Leo would be wonderful ....but......2 quality halves are the major priority....bigly, and there are plenty of clubs in the same position with more money than the Knights to solve the problem.

 

[HarVeeGee]

Truly believe a team with 3 elite spine players and one they’ve economised on, who’s spent the money they’ve saved on elite middles, beats a team with 4 elite spine players and a weaker pack.

One big halves signing is enough.

 

[Woody90]

We can’t afford 2 quality halves. We literally don’t have the money. We can get 1 for 2026 provided we move on Hastings and the likes of KPP/Pryce either leave or take a pay cut. My preference would be a halfback as someone like Gamble is decent with a quality half next to him (you obviously don’t want him to be your main half though).

 

[Woody90]

Is Leo worth the big money being discussed?

His stats are on par with Dan.

Not really. Scarcity market currently over the whole comp with props and halves in particular, lots of blokes being offered very inflated contracts for what they’re worth as there’s a lack of options. Leo looks menacing and leads the Haka for kiwis which I think has led to this idea that he’s already a prop ready to lead a pack which he’s not. He very much could be one day which is why he’s attracting the offers, but we need to be careful as we once thought the same thing with DSaf. I like Leo a lot, but he’s not worth destroying our cap over if he doesn’t kick on to that level.

 

[Dr Dr Gimedanews]

Truly believe a team with 3 elite spine players and one they’ve economised on, who’s spent the money they’ve saved on elite middles, beats a team with 4 elite spine players and a weaker pack.

One big halves signing is enough.

Interesting observation, I would agree if you're happy to just make up the numbers.

I do beg to differ though- Tell me which option below does NOT belong in the group - or perhaps a better question - which option are you more likely to win a Premiership with?
Munster
Luai
Keary
Trindall
Gamble/Cogger/Crossland/ Pryce

We've economized on a dummy-half ( Brailey should be gone soon enough).

 

[Dr Dr Gimedanews]

Also to the above, regarding attracting an elite half to the club - with a selling point of being playing for a Premiership. Choose the option you would most like to play alongside

Munster
Luai
Keary
Trindall
Gamble/Cogger/Crossland/ Pryce

 

[Woody90]

Interesting observation, I would agree if you're happy to just make up the numbers.

I do beg to differ though- Tell me which option below does NOT belong in the group - or perhaps a better question - which option are you more likely to win a Premiership with?
Munster
Luai
Keary
Trindall
Gamble/Cogger/Crossland/ Pryce

We've economized on a dummy-half ( Brailey should be gone soon enough).

How do we pay for 2 though?
You can have 2 highly paid halves if you cost cut across the board and don’t have a 1.4 million dollar fullback.

We can either have one quality half and Ponga or 2 quality halves. Cant realistically have both and I know which one id prefer.

 

[HarVeeGee]

Interesting observation, I would agree if you're happy to just make up the numbers.

I do beg to differ though- Tell me which option below does NOT belong in the group - or perhaps a better question - which option are you more likely to win a Premiership with?
Munster
Luai
Keary
Trindall
Gamble/Cogger/Crossland/ Pryce

We've economized on a dummy-half ( Brailey should be gone soon enough).

Matt Arthur is a fantastic prospect. I think he’s going to be elite.

We need a dominant #7. Would be very happy if we got Trindall.

Then you’d hope someone in the system comes through and makes a fist of the #6 on the cheap.

We’ve just watched a team go back to back with Mitch Kenny at hooker. Chad Townsend, Sam Verrills and Lachlan Coote are premiership winners.

Even the 2020 Storm - it’s a weird example of this, but Jahrome Hughes was on way less money and had a very simple role, was really still learning how to play 7, and their pack was way better at that time than now.

You can get away with one do-a-job guy.

 

[Dr Dr Gimedanews]

How do we pay for 2 though?
You can have 2 highly paid halves if you cost cut across the board and don’t have a 1.4 million dollar fullback.

We can either have one quality half and Ponga or 2 quality halves. Cant realistically have both and I know which one id prefer.

From the early re-signings it appears Sully will be going with securing junior development like Lucas, and good cap value signings like Jones and Croker. I expect less ......of the journeyman players I've mentioned before , they don't offer cap value, and won't be in the roster come 2026.

The second fiddle half doesn't have to be blue chip elite - a junior half with good potential and plenty of tomorrows playing alongside a senior half to assist in his development.

Getting Pezet to the Knights to play alongside Gamble? Crazy stuff. No way he, or his agent would be excited about that prospect (without major overs being offered) . Would have the potential to destroy his career, and he wants Premierships, and that isn't happening playing alongside the likes of Gamble and Co.

 

[Mr_Knightside]

Let’s not forget the great Shane Perry who won the premiership at halfback for the Broncos in 2006.

 

[Apey]

From the early re-signings it appears Sully will be going with securing junior development like Lucas, and good cap value signings like Jones and Croker. I expect less ......of the journeyman players I've mentioned before , they don't offer cap value, and won't be in the roster come 2026.

The second fiddle half doesn't have to be blue chip elite - a junior half with good potential and plenty of tomorrows playing alongside a senior half to assist in his development.

Getting Pezet to the Knights to play alongside Gamble? Crazy stuff. No way he, or his agent would be excited about that prospect (without major overs being offered) . Would have the potential to destroy his career, and he wants Premierships, and that isn't happening playing alongside the likes of Gamble and Co.

I mean, our selling point for a half is Ponga, not who he will be partnering with in the halves.

Pass the ball to this bloke half the time and be a genuine point-scoring option yourself the other half.

 

[Rod]

Personally, I think if we have to pay a penny over $650k then he can walk - and I'm giving him a bonus 50k there from what I actually think too. As HVG said above, we have the luxury of being able to upgrade him in 2025 to sweeten the deal if there's some cap there to do it. If we can't get it done around that price then I see us walking down the exact same path we have before.

It's the "because he's likely" that we need to stop paying for. Pay for what he is now. We get burned almost every time on what "might" be. I feel like I'm forever looking at our disappointments that were signed on values for what they "will" provide to us, rather than what they actually do provide us.

This is the crux of the issue with this November 1 system - whether it's a good deal for the team or not ultimately you're committing to something that's not going to happen for 16 months. And a hell of a lot can change in that sort of time frame. We have no choice but to pay a little bit on potential if we want to retain promising talent, it's just the the nature of the beast. After all we literally just did this with Lucas.

As you say the key is not to go overboard, but it's inevitable given Leo's potential and the interest he'll get from other clubs we'll need to go over and above a figure that reflects what he's producing right now. I agree with your ~650k figure though.

 

[Yosh]

Matt Arthur is a fantastic prospect. I think he’s going to be elite.

We need a dominant #7. Would be very happy if we got Trindall.

Then you’d hope someone in the system comes through and makes a fist of the #6 on the cheap.

We’ve just watched a team go back to back with Mitch Kenny at hooker. Chad Townsend, Sam Verrills and Lachlan Coote are premiership winners.

Even the 2020 Storm - it’s a weird example of this, but Jahrome Hughes was on way less money and had a very simple role, was really still learning how to play 7, and their pack was way better at that time than now.

You can get away with one do-a-job guy.

Can you elaborate more on Matt Arthur? Why do you think so highly of him?

 

[HarVeeGee]

From what I’ve seen, he’s just very crafty, a natural at manipulating the space around the ruck and getting the right defenders interested to get his forwards pushing through the ad line, create space for his halves, etc. It’s always fraught comparing a guy to an elite player but I think Api Koroisau is what you hope he develops into.

A 9 like that makes your club more enticing to good halves I think. I am not sure Luai picks the Tigers without Api being there.

 

[Dr Dr Gimedanews]

I mean, our selling point for a half is Ponga, not who he will be partnering with in the halves.

Pass the ball to this bloke half the time and be a genuine point-scoring option yourself the other half.

Arguably the biggest challenge for any young player coming into grade is consistency. Crucial of you are a half steering the team. Playing alongside a another genuine playmaker can't be underestimated, and so important for development.

Playmakers are playing well into their 30's now - For Pezet the choice is pretty clear

Option 1 - Go to a mid table team and play alongside a fringe first grader in the halves

Option 2 - wait a couple of years and play in a team that is consistently challenging for the Premiership.

Bit like taking the keys to the Toyota Camry now and do a few laps with NRMA road service, or wait and get the keys to the McLaren and win a Grand Prix

 

[Woody90]

From the early re-signings it appears Sully will be going with securing junior development like Lucas, and good cap value signings like Jones and Croker. I expect less ......of the journeyman players I've mentioned before , they don't offer cap value, and won't be in the roster come 2026.

The second fiddle half doesn't have to be blue chip elite - a junior half with good potential and plenty of tomorrows playing alongside a senior half to assist in his development.

Getting Pezet to the Knights to play alongside Gamble? Crazy stuff. No way he, or his agent would be excited about that prospect (without major overs being offered) . Would have the potential to destroy his career, and he wants Premierships, and that isn't happening playing alongside the likes of Gamble and Co.

You’re not going to sign a half that will make any type of meaningful difference for under say 900k (and that’s if you’re lucky). In terms of a junior half with good potential, by the time he develops to the point that he’s performing consistently in FG you’re not going to keep him unless you fork out elite money.

We also need to consider the fact that you need to fund a top 30 squad and there’s a minimum wage. There’s actually not a huge amount of cap savings between juniors on minimum contracts vs journeymen - they still need to make minimum wage…and if any of them kick on you have to pay more to keep them (i.e. Best). FTR Id obviously prefer juniors with upside to journey men but just to point out that’s not how you’re going to save enough money to squeeze 2 extra halves into this squad (unless they’re terrible).

 

[Dr Dr Gimedanews]

You’re not going to sign a half that will make any type of meaningful difference for under say 900k (and that’s if you’re lucky). In terms of a junior half with good potential, by the time he develops to the point that he’s performing consistently in FG you’re not going to keep him unless you fork out elite money.

We also need to consider the fact that you need to fund a top 30 squad and there’s a minimum wage. There’s actually not a huge amount of cap savings between juniors on minimum contracts vs journeymen - they still need to make minimum wage…and if any of them kick on you have to pay more to keep them (i.e. Best). FTR Id obviously prefer juniors with upside to journey men but just to point out that’s not how you’re going to save enough money to squeeze 2 extra halves into this squad (unless they’re terrible).

NRL Salary Cap 2025 = 11.4 million. Teams would be looking at spending around 30% - 35% of that on the spine.

Examples - estimates
Storm - Paps 950K + Munster 1 mill + Grant 850K + Hughes 850K = 3.64 Mill ( 32% of cap ) other top teams are in the ballpark.

Rorters - Tedesco 1.1 + Walker 1.0 + Keary 800K + Smith 850K = 3.75 Mill

Let's take the Murdoch hacks hyperbole as gospel - Ponga on 1.4 ( I suspect it's more like 1.2) that leaves around 2.4 Mill in the kitty remaining for our spine - Young hooker Arthur on 400K leaves 2 Mill remaining for 1 elite half + up and coming youngster.

Outside the spine should be more Leo, Lucas, Jones, Croker, Marzhew, Crossland type value and less Dsaf, Hetherington and Elliot.

Knights roster is pear shaped and we will see a lot of changes in the next 12 months to correct it.