We have these off contract:
Auva'a
Davis
Gower
Hayne
Gennings
King
Matagi
Niukore
Pritchard
Scott
Terepo
Vave
Williams
And need to replace them in the top 30 with the same number of players, so a minimum of $1.18M (4 x $70k + 9 x $100k)
We have signed Junior Paulo for $650k at minimum, plus we've upgraded Alvaro and Brown (my guess is about $500k) so there's another $1.15M in next year's cap.
The only big money players off contract are Hayne and Scott (maybe $900k between them). Auva'a, King, Matagi, Pritchard, Terepo and Vave would be on about $200k each, so there's $1.2M freed up. Assume we flush all of them plus minimum salary players Davis, Gower, Gennings, Niukore and Williams ($500k for the five) and we have lost 13 from the squad and created $2.6M in cap space. Add Kenny Edwards' $300k that has just been freed up and we're looking at $2.9M
Then subtract the $650k for Paulo and the $500k for Alvaro and Brown's upgrades and you're left with $1.75M (let's be generous and call it $1.8M) for next year, with which we need to buy 12 players (the 13 we're letting go minus Junior Paulo). And here's the rub: it's easy to find players worth less than the minimum salary, but you have to pay them no less than the minimum salary (4 x $70k and the rest x $100k). You also need to be able to rely on a couple of them to play at least half the season, as well the rest to fill in during a crisis. You don't want Flegg graduates or part-timers from Wenty who are only worth $50k. If you're going to pay blokes $100k (or even $70k) you need them to be worth it, because they will appear in your NRL team during the season. You're better off paying a bloke that's worth $150k what he's worth as a backup than paying a bloke worth $50k double that just to fill your top 30 with cheapies. I dare say the backups worth exactly $100k (and willing to take it) aren't in such numbers that you can just find one off contract when you need him.
But let's assume we can find as many $100k players as we need (plus the four $70k players 27-30 in the squad). We have $1.8M to spend and 12 spots to fill. You want Lodge, TPJ, RFM and Koroisau. That would mean eight minimum salary players alongside them, costing $680k). So you have $1.12M to sign Lodge, TPJ, RFM and Koroisau. I would suggest we'd be lucky to get two of these blokes for that, plus fill the other two spots with minimum salary backups. Axing Norman would be a good way to get three of them (and one minimum salary backup) but it still leaves a hole in the outside backs.
Better economics would be to look at the top 17 as it stand for 2019. Let's assume Norman is gone and frees up $500k:
1. French
2.
3. Jennings
4.
5.
6. Gutherson
7. Moses
8. Alvaro
9.
10. Paulo
11. Ma'u
12. Moeroa
13. Brown
14.
15.
16. Evans
17. Mannah
Throw Takairangi in there at either 4 or 15. Plus these squad members who won't be in the ideal top 17:
18. Smith
19. Hoffman
20. Salmon
We now need not middle forwards, but a hooker plus at least one winger. That's just for our top 17. Signing more middle forwards, even if they're better than the ones we have, will just push more top 17 contracts out of the top 17. That is a dumb use of a limited resource (cap space). Plus if Norman is gone then we have 15 spots left to fill for next year (including a top 17 wing, hooker and at least two other edge players).
So in this magical fairytale world where Norman is gone and frees up $500k (and my numbers are inexplicably correct for all the merkins off contract) then we have $2.3M to sign four top 17 players and 11 backups on about minimum salary. For ease of accounting let's assume the backups average $100k each (so the four $70k players are evened out by some of the backups costing more than $100k). That makes $1.1M for backups, leaving $1.2M for the four top 17 players. That is $300k for each of those four, which is average salary under the current cap and therefore slightly less under next year's cap. But I think $300k is a very solid first grader, along the lines of Takairangi or Alvaro. It's probably a below average NRL hooker. We might get Mitch Rein for that or spend less at the other three positions and get Granville/Koroisau for $500k+
But I can't see how we can spend big on two more middle forwards and still have enough to fill the rest of the squad.
